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MW 9 September 2015

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maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 9 SEptEmbEr 2015 12 Business Today Regular market closed – 08/09/2015 Symbol Code Volume Traded Value Traded Trades High Price Low Price Open Price Close Price Change s BOV 33,911 76,861.170 11 2.270 2.260 2.260 2.270 0.020 l GO 14,239 48,846.370 4 3.495 3.425 3.431 3.495 0.000 s HSB 5,296 9,710.760 4 1.847 1.820 1.820 1.820 0.010 l IHI 12,750 9,945.000 2 0.780 0.780 0.780 0.780 0.000 l LOM 8,975 19,251.480 3 2.150 2.140 2.140 2.150 0.000 l MIA 3,400 13,089.000 4 3.850 3.840 3.850 3.840 0.000 s MMS 626 1,358.420 1 2.170 2.170 2.170 2.170 0.050 s RS2 15,632 37,350.160 5 2.400 2.380 2.380 2.400 0.030 t G15B 6,989 7,021.150 1 100.460 100.460 100.460 100.460 -0.050 t G15F 500,000 504,170.000 4 100.850 100.830 100.850 100.830 -0.060 l G19C 4,000 4,388.800 1 109.720 109.720 109.720 109.720 0.000 s G21A 7,000 8,605.100 1 122.930 122.930 122.930 122.930 0.220 s G22A 11,881 14,939.170 2 125.740 125.740 125.740 125.740 0.730 s G23A 34,942 45,658.720 3 130.670 130.670 130.670 130.670 0.900 s G28B 115,400 147,988.960 4 128.240 128.240 128.240 128.240 0.590 s G30A 21,000 29,051.400 2 138.340 138.340 138.340 138.340 0.580 s G33A 18,000 22,960.800 1 127.560 127.560 127.560 127.560 0.410 s G34A 14,000 17,535.000 2 125.250 125.250 125.250 125.250 0.410 s G40A 22,100 23,553.500 5 106.750 106.500 106.500 106.750 0.250 t HB17A 16,648 17,305.200 5 104.000 103.000 104.000 103.000 -1.000 s HB18A 4,400 4,754.640 2 108.060 108.060 108.060 108.060 0.030 s HM24A 19,000 20,471.000 3 110.500 102.000 102.000 110.500 0.000 s IH25A 700 770.000 1 110.000 110.000 110.000 110.000 0.000 t MD18A 5,000 5,301.000 1 106.020 106.020 106.020 106.020 -0.530 l MI17A 10,000 10,130.000 3 102.000 101.000 102.000 101.000 0.000 l MI21A 35,000 35,315.000 3 100.900 100.900 100.900 100.900 0.000 l MO19A 44,700 47,829.000 1 107.000 107.000 107.000 107.000 0.000 s MS23A 3,400 3,737.620 2 109.930 109.930 109.930 109.930 0.020 t PT24A 4,300 4,730.430 1 110.010 110.010 110.010 110.010 -1.990 Market Summary as at September 8, 2015 Equity Official List Session State ................................................................... Market Closed Number of trades ............................................................. 82 Volume Traded ................................................................. 993,289 Value of € denominated securities .................................... 1,192,628.850 Value of US$ denominated securities ................................ 0.000 Value of GBP£ denominated securities .............................. 0.000 Current Index ................................................................... 4,251.399 Previous Index ................................................................. 4,231.072 Change in Index (%) ......................................................... 0.480 % 6pm Holdings plc .......................... 0.735 0.00% Malta International Airport plc ....... 3.840 0.00% Bank of Valletta plc ....................... 2.270 0.89% MaltaPost plc ................................. 1.636 0.00% FIMBank plc ................................. 0.450 0.00% Medserv plc .................................. 2.950 0.00% GlobalCapital plc .......................... 0.800 0.00% Mapfre Middlesea plc .................... 2.170 2.36% GO plc ........................................... 3.495 0.00% MIDI plc ........................................ 0.353 0.00% Grand Harbour Marina plc ............. 0.945 0.00% Plaza Centres plc ........................... 1.050 0.00% HSBC Bank Malta plc ..................... 1.820 0.55% RS2 Software plc ........................... 2.400 1.27% International Hotel Investments plc 0.780 0.00% Simonds Farsons Cisk plc .............. 5.550 0.00% Island Hotels Group Holdings plc .. 1.101 0.00% Tigné Mall plc ............................... 0.930 0.00% Lombard Bank Malta plc ............... 2.150 0.00% Pefaco International plc ................ 2.190 0.00%= Malita Investments plc .................. 0.938 0.00% Santumas Shareholdings plc ........ 2.000 0.00% MSE Index The default next move for oil is downwards, and here's why As traders, investors and pundits, we all like to think that what we do is akin to a science. We believe that by working harder and being smarter we can give our- selves an edge, that enough research will reveal to us the next move, either a long- term trend or an intraday blip on a chart, and that we can profit from that knowl- edge. Usually, especially over longer time spans, we are correct in that assump- tion. Sometimes, however, no amount of fundamental or technical analysis will help. Over the last week or so we have seen some violent swings in the price of oil, swings that in many ways defy logic. At times like these we have to rely on the art, rather than science, of trading and reading markets. That is not to say that traders and investors at home should be simply making wild guesses, it is just that right now, the oil markets are trading on factors other than the fundamental influences that we are used to. It is hard to chart fear and panic. Panic may seem like a strong word to many, but having been a denizen of a dealing room for most of my working life, I can assure you that that is what many have been feeling. The level of overreaction that we have been seeing to every scrap of news over the last couple of weeks is hard to justify in any other way. It is at times like this that some degree of basic technical analysis, a simple identification of support and resistance, becomes all we have to fall back on. To that extent the science of reading these markets is still intact, but once the significant levels have been identified, assessing in what way they are significant is more of an art. In terms of the benchmark U.S. oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), at least now we have some parameters to work in. The drop halted at around $37 and the surge back up that followed itself turned around at just below $50, so, for now at least, that marks the new range. If we accept that, then anybody with even the most basic knowledge of trading will know that, at current levels in the high $40s, a bias towards a short position offers a better risk reward ratio with a closer, logical stop loss level. There are, moreover, a few more subtle, psychological factors amongst market participants that make it most likely that the next move will be downwards and therefore that a short bias is preferable to long. First and foremost, once new, significant levels have been found, re-testing them is almost irresistible to traders and, in historic terms, the lows of the current range are much more significant than the highs. That traders want to see what happens if they get to a seemingly arbitrary level again may seem like a ridiculous reason for a market that affects the livelihood of millions and the wealth of many nations to move, but such concerns won't bother floor traders or hedge fund managers. For them, pushing back below $40 is more of an intellectual exercise than anything and if it can be forced there and the level breaks, large fortunes can be made. Of course, all of this goes out of the window if there is a significant shift in fundamentals, either on the demand or supply side. If decent Chinese economic data is released, for example, or if OPEC announces real production cuts, or if the U.S. rig count drops drastically, then traders' games won't matter at all, oil will be headed higher. Until there is any major news, though, it is a question of anticipating what that news will be, or rather the tone of it. Given what has happened since the middle of last year, you cannot blame traders for making the assumption that, on balance, any news is more likely to be negative for oil than positive. It seems, therefore, that all other things being equal, the default path for WTI in the short term is back downwards, to have another crack at the high $30s. There is no real fundamental reason why that should be the case. If anything recent data suggest that when all is said and done, oil trading below where it was in the depths of the last recession is not justified. A recovery at least to around $60 must come soon. Fundamental, scientific analysis like that doesn't matter at the moment though; what matters is the art of reading the collective mind of the market, and from that perspective oil looks destined for one more push down before sanity returns. Martin Tillier of Oilprice. com

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