Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/789855
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 22 FEBRUARY 2017 5 News Labour landslide? after only five years may give the PN the impression that 2013 was a fluke and they can keep on doing "business as usual," as if by divine right, a prospect some voters will dread. Yet this is not the full story. Pan- amagate has changed the political narrative, offering the PN a strong battle cry and the chance of an un- expected rebound. How Panama changed electoral dynamics It was Muscat's decision to retain Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri in their respective roles in the cabi- net and Castille after both were exposed as the owners of compa- nies in the secretive jurisdiction of Panama, which led to this impasse. Muscat's decision suggested that he was unwilling or unable to re- move the albatross from around his neck. When politicians refrain from taking obvious steps, they inevitably become vulnerable to suspi- cion. Muscat's ad- mission on Sunday that his decision to remain silent in the face of accusations that he is the benefi- ciary of Egrant, the mysterious Panama company set up at the same time that two secret compa- nies were set up for Konrad Mizzi and OPM chief of staff Keith Schembri, "may have been a mistake", flies in the face that the only way to nip the scan- dal in the bud was by sacking Mizzi and Schembri and have the matter in- vestigated by the police. The problem for Muscat is that as the prudent Pana com- mittee chairman Werner Langen observed (after be- ing pressed for an answer by a One journalist to state whether there was corruption in this case) Miz- zi's and Schembri's set-ups "look like money laundering". Since it is probably impossible to prove oth- erwise, due to the failure of these politicians to open bank accounts in Dubai and other jurisdictions, it is this perception which is likely to linger on… simply because the two public officials did not resign in the first place. Uncertainty among voters For while public opinion polls so far suggest that Muscat has re- tained his popularity despite his decision to ignore the Panama outcry, it may also be the case that thousands of people are genuinely confused, caught between a rock and a hard place and are still unde- cided on what to do when election day comes. Surely there are also thousands (some of them former PN voters) who do not care a fig for good gov- ernance and are mostly interested in economic stability, growth and pro-business policies, as they prob- ably were before 2013. For these – even a fraction of 2013 PN voters – Muscat's Labour may well be an automatic choice. Labour may well be hoping that this segment will compensate for any losses among switchers, thus giving Labour a similar result as that of 2013. Labour may well still be winning converts from the PN, especially among beneficiaries of permits and contracts. But Panamagate cannot be seen in isolation. It has exposed a self- serving system of governance where anything goes, including what some voters perceive as bla- tant nepotism; as may be the case of the appointment of Sai Mizzi as Malta's envoy to Shanghai. To top it all there is genuine concern on what a Labour government – which will be entrusted with major deci- sions like the new local plans – will do upon being elected again. In this sense a Labour landslide next year would be understood as absolution for Panamagate and a licence for unfettered governance. It may well make Labour feel invincible. The discerning voter may well not be enthusiastic for a premature PN re- turn to power but may dread more the prospect of an unfettered Labour government which feels omnipotent after winning a large majority de- spite Panama and the system of governance it has come to represent. The Third party option In such circum- stances more will be tempted to vote for third parties. Some may well choose to protest by not voting or by voting Alternattiva Demokratika or Marlene Farrugia's Partit Demokra- tiku. The far right patriots may also leave a mark by striking a populist chord among the less educated seg- ment of floaters, who may see them as being the most anti establish- ment of the lot. But with the stakes being so high potential voters for these parties will also ponder on the question of which of the two big parties they want to see in the driving seat of the country. This is because the choice of gov- ernment in the Maltese electoral system is determined by the first preferences garnered by each party. In this sense talk of a pre-electoral alliance with the PN, an option cur- rently being explored by Marlene Farrugia's PD makes a degree of sense. For some voters a coalition based on a common programme may offer a sort of insurance against a relapse to the 'business as usual' PN style of governance. The problem is how to convince voters that third party participation in a PN list does not transform small parties into a disposable decora- tion put on a pre-baked cake made of unsavoury pre-2013 ingredients. Who will win the next election? In view of its power of incum- bency and its leader's proven sur- vival skills, Labour remains a firm favourite to win the next election. Yet its over-confidence may ulti- mately be its Achilles heel. The very fact that people are entertaining the sheer possibility of a change in government at this stage, exposes a fundamental weakness in Labour's majority; it depends too much in the trust vested in its leader. This may also explain why Mus- cat has been very economical in his defence of Evarist Bartolo and Chris Cardona from the accusa- tions levelled against them. He may well hope that voters will put the blame on individual ministers while the king remains untainted. This may be the reason why the opposition is targeting Muscat di- rectly by insinuating that he owns Egrant. But ever since Muscat lost his sheen because of Panamagate, his party has become more vul- nerable to accusations of impro- priety. Even the most improbable accusations have gained credence simply because Panamagate was not nipped in the bud. Some are already feeling a sense of aver- sion at Labour's continuous use of spin to deviate attention from its problems. The perception that Muscat is a cunning Machiavelli surrounded by a restricted self- serving elite, is seeping in among voters, to Labour's detriment. The PN's Achilles heel may well be the sense of urgency, which pushes it to appear more extreme and hard-line, in a way which leaves Muscat with the op- portunity to present himself as a "moderate". Let's not forget that strongmen politicians like Silvio Berlusconi have always benefitted from a perception of appearing moderate in the face of continu- ous attacks, sometimes bordering on slander, thus giving them the opportunity to lash out at "fake news" even when this contains more than a grain of truth. Muscat knows this and will present him- self as the leader of "moderates" against an insurgent opposition which constantly needs to up the stakes to galvanise its electorate. The Nationalist party's symbi- otic relationship with columnist and blogger Daphne Caruana Gal- izia – whose so far unproven but evocative revelations on Cardona's presence in a German brothel led to the garnishee orders against which last Sunday's protest was initially organised – symbolises the PN's dilemma on how hard it is going to push to bring Mus- cat down. Parallel to this is the increased siege mentality among Labour supporters – symbolised by Cardona's "axe" imagery, some- thing which constantly exposes Muscat's 'moderate' appeal as fake. In this scenario where both par- ties are constantly raising the stakes, the prospect of another La- bour landslide, which sees Muscat confirming or even increasing its vote of 2013, cannot be excluded. This would be the case if the elec- torate finds the prospect of quick return of the PN to power repul- sive. But the prospect of a landslide for Muscat may push other vot- ers to give the PN a tactical vote simply to clip the wings of a fu- ture Labour government. These voters may well reason that with Labour going to win anyway, it is better to invest in a stronger op- position. In fact while a reduced Labour majority appears the logical outcome of the current impasse, some observers in both parties are convinced that the two most likely outcomes are a Labour landslide similar to that of 2013 or very close election which may go either way. This makes the prospect of a slim PN majority a possibility. Polls so far suggest both possibili- ties: for while Muscat enjoys an 8 to 10 point lead on Busuttil, the PL leads the PN with just two to four points. Another major factor could be that a segment of genu- inely undecided voters may be re- luctant to state their voting inten- tions to pollsters. It is this silent category of voters – and not those who tend to attend national pro- tests – who may ultimately deter- mine who will the next election and probably these may be weigh- ing the dangers of a premature Nationalist re-entry to the seat of power with the dangers posed by a landslide for Muscat. Thousands attended the PN rally on Sunday which was addressed by opposition leader Simon Busuttil