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MW 22 March 2017

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maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 22 MARCH 2017 News 7 embrace or opportunity? are slim. The latest MaltaToday survey shows the PL still win- ning even if the PN teams up with both the PD and AD. Why should AD join a coalition of los- ers? Why team up with the PN when the party shows so many signs of weakness? The answer to these questions depends on what AD will get in return in terms of policy, reforms and parliamentary representa- tion. For example what if AD se- cures a commitment for electoral reform from the PN? But why take the plunge now in- stead of waiting for a more appro- priate moment? The answer to that may be that big parties will only negotiate with the small fry when they are weak. A galvanised PN in the run up to the 2023 elec- tion may be less willing to strike a deal with AD than it now. In fact both the PN and the PL prefer co-opting individuals from AD rather than having to negotiate a common programme with a principled green party, which may be unpalatable to its conservative elements. In fact Michael Briguglio was courted by Labour after 2008 and by the Nationalists after 2013 and has refused both offers. Cacopardo's note of caution Carmel Cacopardo does not exclude a coalition with the PN. But he argues that the timing for it is wrong, especially in the wake of the donation scandal. He also argues that the Salvu Mallia for- mula, which sees the PN turning in to a grand coalition hosting candidate's coalitions "simulta- neously championing diametri- cally opposed causes", does not work for AD. "Real pre-electoral coalitions are assembled in a quite different manner. They should be formed on the basis of a commonly agreed political platform – one which plots an agreed electoral programme as well as the man- ner in which this should be im- plemented by the coalition part- ners," he wrote in a recent blog. Formulating a common pro- gramme is something that takes time and long-term commitment from both sides. But writing in February, Cacopardo like Brigug- lio hinted that a pre-electoral co- alition would represent a "water- shed in Maltese politics" adding that "this is the real challenge, if we wish to move forward." This suggests that Cacopardo and Briguglio are on the same wavelength as regards strat- egy but while the former is cau- tious, Briguglio wants to take the plunge now. It takes two to tango Still even if AD agrees on mak- ing a coalition offer, will the PN take the bait? For while for AD there are clear advantages in contesting on a joint ticket with the PN, what does the PN gain from an alliance with AD? In a coalition with the PN, AD would surely lose those who de- test both parties in equal doses but it would win those who prefer AD to the PN but prefer a PN-led government to a Labour-led gov- ernment. This may well open the f lood- gates of votes for AD in the tenth districts and eleventh districts which include favourable locali- ties such as Sliema and Attard. While an alliance with Mar- lene Farrugia's PD may help the PN's fortunes in the fifth district where it is weak, an alliance with AD may actually increase com- petition for PN candidates in dis- tricts which the PN can win on its own steam. The only advantage for the PN is that an alliance with AD would act as a kind of insurance for its good governance pledge. In this sense AD in parliament would guarantee that the PN won't break its good governance pledge if elected again to power. What is sure is that time may be catching up with AD which can no longer boast of being fresh and new. The day after the 2018 general election nobody will be impressed by a debate on AD's f luctuations between 1% and 2%. In this sense, the choice for AD is between striving for a big na- tional epiphany, which will see an improbable meltdown of the two party system or to pragmatically seek incremental change through tedious coalition talks. In both cases AD will have to engage in an effective strat- egy and has to make very hard choices. Irrespective of the strategy chosen AD also needs a charismatic leadership, a sleek propaganda campaign and an at- tractive corporate image, three qualities where AD is currently failing and which are essential for the success of any strategy. Some may argue that the goal for now should be that of buying time surviving to live for another day, and perhaps reap the ben- efits of coalition politics in 2023 but will the electorate wait for that? AD deputy chairperson Carmel Cacopardo (left) argued that pre-electoral coalitions should be formed on the basis of a commonly agreed political platform

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