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maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 AUGUST 2018 6 NEWS ANALYSIS THE latest Maltatoday survey shows the PN retaining only 55% of its 2017 votes while La- bour retains 83%. One main reason for the large gap between the two parties is that while 23.1% of PN voters are presently undecided or in- tent on not voting, only 7% of PL voters are in the same posi- tion. This suggests that if the PN recovers this category of pres- ently non-committed PN vot- ers, the gap could be substan- tially narrowed. The PN has a greater reserve of relapsed vot- ers to recover than the PL. While presently 31,345 PN voters in 2017 are undecided or intent on not voting, only 11,968 PL voters are in the same position. But the bad news for the PN is that it is also losing a fifth of its voters in 2017 (21.2%) to Labour. This is only partly compensated by 9.8% of PL voters in 2017 who would now vote PN. When these shifts are taken into account, the PN could be losing 28,768 votes to the PL while the PL is losing 16,756 votes to the PN. While Labour does not lose anything to third parties, the PN loses a further 814 votes to AD. The worse scenario for the PN is one in which undecided voters or those intending not to vote do not budge on elec- tion day. In this case Labour would be perilously close to the 66% mark. Since seat allo- cation is linked directly to the proportion of votes gained by the parties elected to parlia- ment, the PL would be very close to a two-thirds parlia- mentary majority. Labour's chances of winning such a ma- jority would be even greater if it recovers some of its 2017 voters who are presently not committed to vote for it while the PN fails to do likewise. But this scenario is unlikely, as one would assume that both parties are likely to win back a proportion of presently non- committed voters who claim to be undecided or intent on not voting. In fact the best scenario for the PN is one in which both parties recover all of their "non committed" voters. In this case Labour would end up winning around 59% of the vote while the PN would end up with about 40% of the vote. Although the gap is stag- gering, such a scenario would not result in a two-thirds ma- jority for Labour. These calculations do not take first time voters into ac- count. Yet as things stand, it remains very difficult for La- bour to win a two-thirds ma- jority which would give it the power to change the constitu- tion without the opposition's consent. The Egrant debacle alone does not explain why Muscat's Labour enjoys such an enor- mous advantage over the Op- position. Surveys since 2008 have shown a haemorrhage of former PN voters shifting their allegiance to Labour, a process that has never been arrested except for a brief time after panamagate. The key to La- bour's electoral success was its ability to morph into the PN's ideological territory and win sectors which previously sup- ported the PN, without alien- ating its core vote. 1. Labour has moved deep into PN territory Muscat's Labour is uncannily similar to Eddie Fenech Ad- ami's Nationalist Party in its golden years between 1987 and 1992. Like the PN in its best of times it is perceived to be a'better manager'of the econ- omy, a creator of new wealth revenues and a pro-business party which retains a social conscience. The major differ- ence is that the PL is also more socially liberal, thus enhanc- ing its appeal among voters who were appalled by the PN's conservatism on issues like LGBTI rights, liberalisation of drug laws and access to IVF. This makes it very difficult for the PN to reposition itself in the ideological spectrum. To distinguish itself from a party which is so similar to them the PN tried to project themselves as the"cleaner"alternative, but this was a hard-sell after 25 years in government. 2. Labour retains its core vote Labour also manages to re- tain its core vote while widen- ing its appeal to former Na- tionalists. Part of the reason is that coming after 25 years in Opposition, Labour naturally rallied around an electorally successful leader. There are historical indications that La- bour's vote is more solid. The PL remained close to the 50% mark even in its worst times after the 1987 election and af- ter the EU membership refer- endum. Since 2013 Labour has kept this solid base while add- ing switchers from the other side to its formidable hegem- onic block. 3. Muscat faces little trouble from the unions The acceptance of neo-liberal mantras over the past decades has lowered the expectations of organised Labour to present Muscat with more radical so- cial demands. In fact, with the exception of environmental is- sues, there is little opposition to Muscat's economic model. While Labour's socialist cre- dentials have been repeatedly questioned, Labour has so far managed to avoid auster- ity measures which penalise the working class. Increased government revenue means that there is more money to spend on measures like free child care without the need to increase taxes on the well off. Apart from income from the controversial sale of citizen- ship, more tax money is be- ing collected from foreigners working here. Lower income earners, including disenfran- chised foreigners, still suffer from rising rents and from hikes in the prices of essential products like bread but so far this has not weakened Mus- cat's hold on the majority of working-class voters. 4. Labour policies have ben- efitted strategic segments of the electorate Muscat's Labour has enact- ed policies which may create long-term social and environ- mental problems but which have increased income among strategic categories of voters. For example, changes in height policy favoured homeowners and businesses that wanted to add an extra floor. Owners of restaurants have been able to increase covers through more permissive policies on al fres- co dining. Meanwhile though endless construction has grown into a major concern for the public, this does not necessarily result in a change of political allegiance. On the other hand people may be more likely to change political allegiance when they become richer thanks to changes in goal posts. Labour also stands to benefit from a power of incumbency, which makes it easier for it to curtail electoral losses or abstention on the eve of elections. 5. The PN is a divided house and divided parties do not inspire While Labour appears united behind an undisputed leader, the PN is perceived to be in shambles. In this way the PL manages to project itself as a party of stability. At the pre- sent moment, the electorate is reluctant to entrust govern- ment in the hands of a party lacerated by conflicts, which makes it impossible for it to present itself as an alterna- tive government. Egrant may have solidified the perception of a disunited PN. If division spirals out of control and PN MPs continue to shoot from the hip, the prospect of a two- thirds majority for Labour may become even less far fetched. Any attempt to unseat Delia after next year's MEP election may result in the further fis- sures in the party which may spiral out of control. There- fore, restoring unity in the Op- position may be the only way to stop Labour from making further gains. 6. The PN is not credible enough on issues, which concern the public How far-fetched is a two-thirds Although at present, a two-thirds majority will only be possible if the PN fails to recover former voters who are now undecided or intent on not voting, the prospect is not as far fetched as it was in the past. James Debono lists a number of reasons why the prospect of a two-thirds majority for Labour is not impossible even if still an unlikely scenario Letter of Intention Mr. Hermann Mallia, Director of Finest Human Capital Ltd., de- clares his intention for the company to register for an Employment Agency Licence in accordance to article 23 of the Employment and Training Services Act, 1990 (Act XXVIII of 1990). e activities proposed to be carried out are the following: 1. Recruitment Consultancy; 2. Interviewing, selection and placements of candidates in employment; 3. Recruitment of persons from abroad for employment in Malta or in an EU member state; 4. Recruitment of persons in Malta for employment in Malta or in an EU member state; 5. Advertising of the lling of vacancies; 6. Keeping a register of applicants for employment Ocial Registered Oce Address at which the employment agency or employment business is to be carried out. OneOneO, Famalco Group Pitkali Road, Attard ATD2214 Malta Company Registration Number C83733