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OPINION 10 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 5 SEPTEMBER 2018 SUMMITRY is a staple of in- ternational diplomacy and the European Union is no excep- tion. Summits raise expecta- tions: of last-minute, heroic breakthroughs; of meaningful change. They exist to punctu- ate the tensions of interna- tional relations with images of harmony and hope that may well be illusory. In the EU, summits are often a last resort to reach agreement. Approaching the EU's long- awaited summer summit in the final week of June, the stakes were high and expec- tations already low. Among other structural flaws weak- ening the EU from within, the bedrock of the Franco- German friendship has been put under serious pressure by divergent ideas in key policy areas. In the end, German Chancel- lor Angela Merkel managed to emerge from the summit with the deal on migration she needed to avert a breakdown of her ruling coalition, but it was a close call. And on the face of it, pro- gress was made at the sum- mit on three headline agenda items: migration; security and defence; and "jobs, growth and competitiveness". Con- clusions were reached unani- mously and all parties left still on speaking terms. But as the summit chair, European Council president Donald Tusk, announced: "It is far too early to talk about a success." What counts, he continued, is implementation "on the ground". Brexit was relegated to the sidelines. But on the ground, the EU is divided and obstacles abound. Many factors would have to fortuitously align for the successful implementa- tion of the sinister sounding deal on migration. The issue was the most intractable of the agenda items and it all but crowded out discussion on the other issues. But on those too, cross-EU agreement is under- standably hard to come by, from sharing the burdens of bolstering the single currency, to the desired strength of the EU's defence capability. Alongside securing agree- ment, the EU needs all its members to fully sign up to shared principles and shared values. Of these, solidarity is undoubtedly the most impor- tant for the summer summit's conclusions to be fulfilled. It is also in the shortest supply. Franco-German pact At the heart of such deal- making lies the Franco-Ger- man relationship, enshrined 55 years ago in treaty form. Driven by past events and present ties to favour co-op- eration over conflict, France and Germany hold their own regular summits and on June 19, French President Em- manual Macron and Merkel duly met at Meseberg Castle in Germany to compare notes. They emerged from their talks brandishing a joint Meseberg Declaration, which was strik- ingly ambitious. Paris and Berlin pledged to refresh their founding friend- ship treaty later in 2018; they recalled at length their shared values and ambitions regard- ing Europe; and they agreed terms for the EU summit items. At Macron's urging, they edged closer together on matters where German reluc- tance is legendary, such as a common budget for eurozone countries. But in the EU in 2018, context is everything, and the context is ominous. In France and Germany alone, domestic politics do not encourage the leap of faith to genuine EU- level sovereignty that activat- ing the Meseberg Declaration would entail. In particular, Merkel limped to the June EU summit under the stark shadow of an ultimatum in all but name from within her own government, should the final EU deal on migration not be to the liking of her interior minister, Horst Seehofer. A few days after her return, he agreed not to resign. Friends and neighbours of the Franco-German cou- ple are also threatening to come between the pair. The UK's intention to bring its 45-year-old EU membership to an end deprives Germany of an ally over fiscal affairs and France of a fully reliable partner in matters of security and defence. The Trump-like shock actions of Italy's new government, such as una- shamedly stigmatising ethnic minorities, could potentially bolster populist forces within Germany and France. Hun- gary and Poland also continue, unpunished, to transgress EU values and the rule of law that they signed up to when joining the EU. Moment of truth Can France and Germany lead the way? They still bear the burden of their historical obligation to co-exist peace- ably and to forge bilateral agreement where fundamental differences of opinion exist. Of the two leaders, Macron is currently the stronger, bring- ing fresh thinking to the part- nership and vital (if largely symbolic) support to Merkel. A renewed bilateral Franco- German bond is a necessary condition to counter the cen- trifugal forces currently test- ing the European Union, but it is unlikely to be sufficient. For Macron, the EU has ar- rived at a "moment of truth" when unity is absolutely the name of the game. Summits take place to display just such unity but often on the slimmest shreds of real solidarity. Even when the visuals and words look and sound right, summits at best mask what's beneath in order to take an audacious step forward. At worst, the gaps between the handshake and hugs on the one hand, and what's going on on the ground on the other, are part of the problem. In an age of seeming ungov- ernability, summits simply don't help. They expose leaders' vulnerabilities and project power over forces that threaten to escape them. The EU has done well in the past by muddling through, and we can only hope for more of the same. The Trump- like shock actions of Italy's new government, such as unashamedly stigmatising ethnic minorities, could potentially bolster populist forces within Germany and France Can the bond between Macron and Merkel keep the rest of the EU united? Helen Drake theconversation.com