Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1024340
NEWS 14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 9 SEPTEMBER 2018 MATTHEW VELLA OVER 1,000 members of the so- called 'EU bubble' and national civil servants surveyed by think- tank Votewatch, made little or no mention of Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat as a fu- ture leader of the EU institutions. The survey asked respondents their views on the reallocation of top EU positions in 2019 – the presidencies of the European Commission, Parliament, Coun- cil and the European Central Bank. But the absence of Muscat as a potential EU leader poured some cold water over reports that the Labour leader was vying for a Brussels post when his second term as prime minister ends, having already declared on more than one occasion that he will not contest a third general elec- tion. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was considered to be the most likely to get the position in 2019 (25% of respondents), closely followed by Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė (20%) – a former European Commissioner. "Quite interestingly, we have spotted different trends across professional segments of our sur- veyed population: the respond- ents from the private sector lean towards Rutte, while the top can- didate among the civil servants working in the EU institutions is Grybauskaitė" – and these choic- es were also split across a West- East geography of respondents. The liberal Rutte enjoys a strong political profile, having dealt with coalition-building in the frag- mented Dutch political land- scape, and could earn the support of the centre-right European Peo- ple's Party. But so is independent Grybauskaitė close to the EPP as well as Germany and Eastern Eu- ropean member states. Also named by respondents were EPP prime ministers Leo Varadkar of Ireland (13%), Ro- manian President Klaus Iohan- nis (9%), while former Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni could be the choice among the potential S&D candidates (8%). In other positions, the survey revealed former European Com- missioner Michel Barnier, cur- rently the chief negotiator on Brexit, as the favourite for EC boss (37%), as well as the current head of the International Mon- etary Fund, Christine Lagarde (13%). Both are French nationals. According to the "Spitzenkan- didaten" process, the leading candidate of the political group winning the EP elections has a strong chance of becoming Pres- ident of the European Commis- sion – something the European People's Party is expected to do, while the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) are expected to face damaging losses to minor parties. Earlier this week, the EPP offi- cially announced that its leader, the German MEP Manfred We- ber, will be the lead candidate for the European Commission post – even though there is no guar- antee that Weber automatically gets the post if he leads the EPP to victory in the European elec- tions. The jury is still out on whether French President Emanuel Ma- cron moves closer to the Europe- an liberals (ALDE), which might present strong competition to the EPP in 2019, although poll- ing numbers are still much lower than those for the EPP. 'Bubblers' saw smaller chances for a centre-left candidate to lead the European Commission, with worsening polling numbers: again, respondents here made no mention of Muscat in the published Votewatch findings, instead suggesting likely spitzen- kandidat leaders like EC vice- president Frans Timmermans and the EC's High Representa- tive for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini. Powerful Germans Respondents to the Votewatch survey were evenly divided on the subject of whether German leaders and MEPs enjoy too much influence across the EU landscape. 50% argued that Germans held a fair amount of power at EU level, while 47% are convinced that German influence is over- represented. "Notably, when excluding the German respondents, the view that 'Germans are too powerful at the EU level' becomes majori- tarian among the respondents from the remaining countries," Votewatch said. "Not surprisingly, we observed strong correlations between the country of origin of the respond- ents and their views on German power. About 70% of respond- ents from Southern countries (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, Cyprus, Greece) think that Ger- mans are too powerful, while only 30% of respondents from Germany and Benelux countries agree with this statement." EU civil servants were more likely (52%) to say Germans held "too much power", as did NGOs (49%) and permanent represent- atives (47%). Not a bright future for socialists The S&D was once the largest group in the EP until 1999, but it was eclipsed by the EPP – to- gether these two groups have used their combined numbers to push through compromise solu- tions and break EU deadlocks. But this will most likely change in 2019 because of decreasing support for the EPP and S&D combination, possibly taking them below 50% of seats next year. 46% of 'bubble' respondents expect that S&D will keep its position as the second largest group in the EP, but more than half of the respondents expect it to become the third, or even the fourth, largest group in the European Parliament in 2019, especially with the recent disap- pointing electoral results in Italy. Again, the centre-ground will be determined by any moves Macron will make, where a new group will try to take some S&D members on board, to further diminish socialists' likelihood to remain a top player after 2019. In Italy, the 5 Star Movement (M5S) will try to repeat its ex- traordinary performance in the recent Italian election (32% of votes). But as the eurosceptic right-wing grouping EFDD is likely to collapse with the depar- ture of the British UKIP MEPs, the M5S will consider moving elsewhere, possibly with another eurosceptic group. Only 13% are willing to bet on a rumoured alliance between Ma- cron and M5S. But the Italians have already been rejected by the ALDE grouping, which could be closer to Macron in European outlook. Germany 15% Benelux 14% France 12% UK & Ireland 10% Italy & Malta 10% Nordic countries 8% SE Europe 8% Central Europe 8% Spain & Portugal 7% Non-EU countries 3% Baltic countries 3% Country of origin of respondents Michel Barnier 37% EPP - France Margrete Vestager 15% ALDE - Germany Christine Legarde 13% EPP - France Jyrki Katainen 9% EPP - Finland Frans Timmermans 4% S&D - Netherlands Federica Mogherini 4% S&D - Italy Pierre Moscovici 3% S&D - France Guy Verhofstadt 2% ALDE - Belgium Others 13% Who will be the next President of the European Commission? Malta's PM was once mooted to be aspiring for the post of EU Council president: his name is still not making it to the 'polls' No mention of Muscat for top job in 'Brussels bubble' survey