Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1028264
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 SEPTEMBER 2018 Making it clear that he is here to stay Having strength- ened his position in party structures it has become likelier that Delia will survive as leader irrespective of the result of MEP elections. Delia has repeatedly made it clear that he will remain leader even if his party fails to make any progress in next year's election. Moreover, Delia may blame internal dissent for his party's failure to im- prove its fortunes in these elections, therefore using defeat to his benefit in a bid to further consoli- date his rule. Yet the European elections will be a major test for Delia's campaigning abilities. If he fails miserably in re- storing some enthu- siasm in his party, he will end up surviving as a lame duck leader till the next general election. This may be why Delia is focusing on galvanising his core vote. In the knowledge that at this stage he cannot nar- row the gap, let alone win the election, Delia may be focusing on building a strong and loyal core of support which will keep him at the helm to live another day. Quelling mutinous MPs One lasting legacy of Caruana Galizia's assassination in October was that of serving as a rallying point for Delia's internal critics, which include a number of rebel MPs who are either lukewarm or hostile towards the new leader. It also remains doubtful whether Delia is able to impose party strat- egy on key players like MEP David Casa and MPs like Jason Azzopar- di. In the face of a mutiny involv- ing at least 11 MPs, Delia back- tracked on his call against former leader Simon Busuttil to suspend himself from the parliamentary group following the publication of the Egrant inquiry conclusions which failed to find evidence that the PM's wife owned a secret company in Panama. The rebellion was particularly worrying for Delia as it included MPs like Mario de Marco and Claudio Grech, who do not fit exactly in the Busuttil mold. De- lia had already faced a mutiny by rebel MPs with regards to his op- position to a legal notice giving five days of leave to IVF patients seeking treatment abroad and to a domestic violence Bill for omit- ting any reference to the unborn child. But even more dangerous than these ideological splits, which may be inevitable in a big-tent party like the PN, is his inability to control individual MPs who tend to shoot from the hip on a variety of issues. Yet these may also provide Delia with a scape- goat for a probable defeat in next year's election. Recovering lost ground Delia's greatest failure has been his miserable performance in the polls. Polls suggest that the gap be- tween the two parties is widening. This is because Delia is failing in a battle on two fronts. Successive MaltaToday surveys shows that while Labour retains most of its supporters, a substantial percent- age of PN voters do not trust De- lia and do not intend to vote. On the other hand more PN vot- ers are shifting to Labour than vice versa. This means that Delia is not only failing to make any in- roads among Labour voters but is also losing support to ab- stention. This shows that Delia's populist pitch has so far failed to earn his party any dividends but risks increas- ing losses to Labour especially if Muscat manages to present him- self as being more moderate than Delia. Also, the party's attempts to counter Muscat's neoliberalism may be crippled by attempts to reconnect with the business com- munity while the perception that the PN is a divided party further weakens its appeal among voters. The reality remains one where while Labour has entrenched it- self in the political centre ground which was PN territory till just a few years ago, the PN remains in the wilderness clutching at straws. Convince voters that the PN can govern Under Delia the PN is not per- ceived to be a government-in- waiting. The problem for Delia is that his leadership team is even weak- er than that of Simon Busuttil. While Busuttil was flanked by Beppe Fenech Adami and Mario de Marco, Delia is flanked by Da- vid Agius and Robert Arrigo, two successful constituency politi- cians who, however, lack the po- litical depth of their predecessors. When one considers that Bu- suttil's team was itself weaker than that of Gonzi and Fenech Adami, one cannot help feeling that the PN is a party in decline. Delia is not to blame for this. The PN electorate did not renew the party in the last general election by electing a new dynamic front- bench. One major weakness identified by former Labour leader Alfred Sant was that "talented individu- als may be preferring to make the best of the present economic cir- cumstances" rather than pursuing a political career within the PN. Presenting new policies Delia may have positioned his party on more populist positions on migration but fails to translate this pitch into an alternative pro- gramme for government. In fact even Delia's rants on migration tend to come in bouts which create ripples of contro- versy but which tend to dissipate as the PN leader struggles to reas- sure more moderate elements in his party that he is not lurching too much towards the right. This suggests that Delia is sim- ply toying with populism and is not interested in changing his party's DNA. The party has so far not come out with clear policies on taxation, the economy, good governance and environmental policies. Delia still struggles to reconcile the different priorities and values of PN voters, let alone come with a message, which can win over new voters from the other side. Making it clear that he is here to stay Having strength- ened his position in party structures it has become likelier that Delia will survive as leader irrespective of the result of MEP elections. Delia has repeatedly made it clear that he will remain leader even if his party fails to make any progress in next year's election. Moreover, Delia may blame internal dissent for his party's failure to im- prove its fortunes in these elections, therefore using defeat to his benefit in a bid to further consoli- date his rule. Yet the European elections will be fails miserably in re- storing some enthu- siasm in his party, he will end up surviving as a lame duck leader till the next general election. This may be why Delia is focusing on galvanising his core vote. In the knowledge that at this stage he cannot nar- row the gap, let alone win the election, Delia may be focusing on building a strong and loyal core of support which will keep him at the helm to live another day. NEWS ANALYSIS DELIA MAN MAKE IT? Unlike the party grandee Eddie Fenech Adami, who also pitched for working class votes, Delia has so far not moved his party to the left on social policy and he is more keen to emphasize identity issues than addressing problems like rising rents and growing inequality DELIA'S FAILURES >> ADRIAN DELIA interviewed by KURT SANSONE PAGES 16-17