Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1037099
13 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 OCTOBER 2018 MALTATODAY SURVEY THE Nationalist Party has man- aged to halt a downward trend in support that had been devel- oping since May, the MaltaTo- day survey shows. The PN registered 29% sup- port, an increase of four points over the last survey in Septem- ber. In May, the party had regis- tered 32.1% support, its high- est result since Adrian Delia became leader. However, since then poll results slipped and in September the PN reached its lowest point this year at 24.8%. The latest findings show that the PN has gained ground but this does not appear to have come at the Labour Party's ex- pense. The PL broadly retained the same level of support it posted last month, at 47.3%. The results suggest that the PN has managed to draw more support from those who voted for it in the last election but who are undecided. The un- decided PN voters dropped to 6.7% from 13.8%. However, the PN still strug- gles with a resistant cohort of its own voters who say they will not vote. In the October survey, 19.2% of 2017 PN voters say they will not vote, an increase of one point over the previous month. As a result of the PN winning back converts, the gap between the parties now stands at 18 points. The gap was 23 points last month. If the results are re-calculated on the basis of declared voting intention by removing those who said they will not vote (17.6%) and those who are not sure (4%), the PL could be look- ing at support levels in the re- gion of 60% and the PN 37%. The gap between the parties would translate into a differ- ence of 70,000 votes. The survey was held after the PN's Independence Day cele- brations and in a period charac- terised by the Planning Author- ity's approval of the db high-rise project in St George's Bay and the subsequent private jet con- troversy linked to it. The findings show that Alter- nattiva Demokratika bounced back from a downward spiral, registering 1.8% support. This was the first time that AD sur- passed the one per cent mark since February. On the flipside, support for the Democratic Party continues to fluctuate. PD registered 0.4% support, a decline from the pre- vious month's 1.3%. The results suggest that none of the third parties so far consti- tute a threat to the dominance of the two big parties. There is a slight increase in people who will not vote if an election is held tomorrow. The survey shows that 17.6% of peo- ple will not vote (16.3% in Sep- tember) while 4% say they are unsure of their choice (9.7% in September). Age and region The PL surpasses the PN across all age groups, posting its strongest result (57.9%) among those aged 51 to 65. Among the young (18-35), the PL scores 32.1% as opposed to the PN's 26.9%. The PN's strongest perfor- mance (36.8%) is among those aged 65 and over, albeit still trailing the PL that registers 55.3% in this age group. The PL is stronger than the PN across all regions except the Northern region, where it posts its weakest result (29%). The result for the Northern region sees the PN ahead with 42.4%, which mimics the result obtained by its leader, Adrian Delia, in the trust barometer. The PL's strongest showing (62.5%) is in the South-Eastern region and this is also a reflec- tion of Joseph Muscat's trust rating in the area. When it comes to voter reten- tion, the PL enjoys the support of 91.5% of those who voted for it in the last election, while 1% say they will now shift to the PN. The PN retains the support of 69.3% of those who voted for it last year, while 2% will now vote for Labour. PN picks up from September's low point The Nationalist Party has gained support but not at the Labour Party's expense, the October MaltaToday survey shows. KURT SANSONE reports. Voting intentions among various categories Methodology The survey was carried out between Monday 1 October and Thursday 4 Octo- ber. 601 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on gender, region and age was used to replicate the Maltese demograph- ics. The estimated margin of error is 4.2% for a confidence interval of 95%. Regions used in the survey The regions are based on the classification determined by the National Statis- tics Office. Southern Harbour: Valletta, Vittoriosa, Senglea, Cospicua, Zabbar, Fgura, Flo- riana, Kalkara, Luqa, Marsa, Paola, St Lucija, Tarxien, Xghajra. Northern Harbour: Qormi, Birkirkara, Gzira, Hamrun, Msida, Pembroke, Pi- eta, St Julian's, San Gwann, St Venera, Sliema, Swieqi, Ta' Xbiex. South Eastern: Zejtun, Birzebbuga, Gudja, Ghaxaq, Kirkop, Marsascala, Mar- saxlokk, Mqabba, Qrendi, Safi, Zurrieq. Western: Mdina, Zebbug, Siggiewi, Attard, Balzan, Dingli, Iklin, Lija, Rabat, Mtarfa. Northern: Gharghur, Mellieha, Mgarr, Mosta, Naxxar, St Paul's Bay. Gozo: Gozo and Comino PL PN AD PD Don't know Won't vote