Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1065920
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 23 DECEMBER 2018 MALTATODAY SURVEY If an election were held tomorrow, whom would you vote for? December results, with change over November ratings in red Party voting polls Labour consolidates as PN moves up THE Labour Party has maintained its strong support, ending the year 19 points ahead of the Nationalist Party, the MaltaToday survey has found. The December survey saw sup- port for the PL climb by less than a percentage point to 48.3% as the party consolidated its standing among the electorate. But the survey also spelt good news for the Nationalist Party that climbed out of its worst perfor- mance last month, jumping up al- most nine points to reach 29%. The upward movement in sup- port for the PN parallels the in- crease in Adrian Delia's trust rat- ing. The PN's result is similar to that obtained in October but less than the party's best performance in May when it scored 32.1%. The December survey showed no sign of reprieve for the smaller parties. Alternattiva Demokratika polled 0.7% and the Democratic Party polled 0.9%. Both parties have consistently polled less than one per cent each in 2018, bar a few exceptions. It appears they have failed to cap- ture the electorate's imagination, even though PD has two very ac- tive MPs. The survey showed that 2.7% of PN voters in 2017 would shift to the PL if an election were held tomorrow, while only 0.3% of PL 2017 voters would vote PN. The biggest handicap for the PN are voters who supported it in the last election but who remain un- moved by the party's direction un- der Delia, although there has been improvement. While in November 21.7% of PN 2017 voters said they would ab- stain from voting, the latest survey showed that that 15.1% of Nation- alist voters would not vote if an election is held tomorrow. This improvement in numbers is a reflection of the higher trust rat- ing Delia obtained among his own voters. But the PL remains more popular than the PN across all age groups, among men and women, and all re- gions bar one. The results broadly reflect the trust ratings of the respective lead- ers. The PL scored strong results among those aged 18-35 (56.7%) and the elderly (52%). In both cat- egories, the PN polled 20.1% and 40.5% respectively. On a regional basis, the PL was just ahead of the PN in Gozo (41.1% vs 39.1%). The PL trailed the PN in the Northern region (38.9% vs 45%) but ran riot over its rival in the southern and western regions. KURT SANSONE JOSEPH Muscat scored an average trust rating of 51.2% over the course of 2018, as voters maintained their trust in the Prime Minister. With 18 months into his second term coming to a close, Muscat remains the Labour Party's biggest asset. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Adrian Delia's trust rating stood at an average of 20.1%. There were nine MaltaToday sur- veys where trust in the two leaders was measured throughout 2018 (no trust survey was conducted in January, April and July). The Prime Minister's trust rating ranged from a low of 41% in February to a high of 54.5% in November. Since June, Muscat's trust rating has consist- ently been above the 50% mark. The Opposition leader's trust oscil- lated between a low of 14.8% in August and a high of 27.2% in May, as Delia struggled with internal dissent. The gap between both leaders was its closest in May when Muscat was 21 points ahead of his political rival. Muscat was consistently more popu- lar than his party. In each survey, bar February, Muscat's trust rating was higher than the result of voting inten- tions obtained by the Labour Party. This gives the PL space in which to grow on the strength of its leader's popularity. Delia's experience was completely op- posite. In every survey held in 2018, the PN leader's trust rating was lower than the result obtained by his party. This is similar to the trend of his pre- decessor Simon Busuttil, who was con- sistently less popular than his party. Survey methodology: The survey was carried out between Thursday 6 December and Friday 14 December. 597 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on gender, region and age was used to replicate the Maltese demographics. The estimated margin of error is 4.2% for a confidence interval of 95% Voters were still in love with Joseph in 2018 The upward movement in support for the PN parallels the increase in Adrian Delia's trust rating. The PN's result is similar to that obtained in October but less than the party's best performance in May when it scored 32.1%