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10 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 JANUARY 2019 NEWS In 2019 • Muscat's next move JOSEPH Muscat's decision to put an expiry date on his head during the 2017 electoral campaign is one of the few inexplicable decisions he has tak- en. Muscat tried to emulate former Brit- ish prime minister Tony Blair when he said that he will not lead the Labour Party into a third general election. It was a decision that surprised many. But the parallelism with Blair starts and ends with the declaration itself because the political circumstances underpinning the decisions were com- pletely different for both men. In 2005, Blair faced his third election and declared that he would not lead the British Labour Party into a fourth election. The British prime minister was at his lowest ebb, facing a deeply dissatisfied electorate over the Iraq war. Blair won the election with a re- duced majority and resigned two years later. However, Muscat's situation was completely different. A confounding decision In 2017, the Prime Minister was ask- ing the electorate for a second term. The country was passing through a good patch and Muscat retained sig- nificantly high trust ratings. Despite the Egrant allegations that dominated the electoral campaign, all signs pointed towards a second deci- sive Labour victory. Why Muscat chose to anticipate the end of his career with that declaration confounded even the Prime Minis- ter's closest aides. Muscat's trust rat- ing has soared since the election and the man remains popular with a wide cross section of the electorate. With an economy performing above par and an Opposition in tatters, Muscat will be facing the European Parliament and local council elections in May on a high. The Labour Party is very likely to score another big victory, making it five national victories (excluding lo- cal council elections) in a row since Muscat's election as Labour leader in 2008. The circumstances will militate against a decision to leave and Mus- cat will face increasing internal pres- sure not to do so. But the Prime Minister has kept the cards close to his chest so far. Not even people close to Muscat can pre- dict what the future holds. "This is a subject the Prime Minister does not talk about and nobody cares to bring up," a source within the Labour Party told me over the Christmas period. Nobody within the party wants Mus- cat to leave and that sentiment was articulated a couple of weeks ago by former leader Alfred Sant, who urged the Prime Minister to stay on. But there is a widespread feeling within the PL's rank and file that 2019 could bring about changes to the par- ty, spurred on by Muscat's pledge to leave at some point before the 2022 general election. A tough European bet It is an open secret that Muscat har- bours an ambition to take up a top European post. The two posts Muscat is eyeing are those of European Coun- cil president – currently occupied by Donald Tusk – and EU foreign policy chief – occupied by Federica Mogh- erini. Both will be up for grabs in the second half of 2019. Getting there though does not de- pend solely on Muscat's will. Much will depend on the shape of the European political landscape after the EP election and the power game that will ensue as the different political groupings jockey for key roles. The socialists could easily be pushed into third place by the rise of the far- right parties in several countries, in- cluding Italy, Austria and Spain. A weakened socialist grouping will do the Prime Minister no favours, al- though Muscat remains the most suc- cessful social democrat in government. Muscat is a veteran of sorts around the table of prime ministers and heads of government at the Council, but he also comes from a small country at a time when France and Germany will want to call the shots after the UK's departure. But other realities will kick in, posing stumbling blocks to Muscat's ambi- tions. He is saddled by the shadow of Daph- ne Caruana Galizia's murder and the accusations that not enough is being done to find the mastermind. Joseph Muscat has been very careful in keeping the cards close to his chest over his future but 2019 may be the year the Prime Minister finally reveals his hand. KURT SANSONE tries to gaze into the crystal ball Joseph Muscat's choices and Labour's future The prospect of Muscat landing a European post remains bleak at this stage but if he manages, the Labour Party would have to brace itself for a leadership contest during the summer months