Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1089428
6 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 6 MARCH 2019 NEWS ANALYSIS 1. A tenth of 2017 PN voters prefer Muscat The two surveys published over the weekend show that between eight and ten percent of voters who had voted for the Busuttil led PN in 2017 now trust Muscat more than Delia. While internal strife between Delia's new way and the party's old guard can be blamed for the fact that nearly half of PN voters refrain from choosing between the two leaders, this cannot explain why one in eve- ry ten of the PN's already re- stricted 2017 cohort now trust Muscat than their own party leader. This shows that apart from the Daphne crowd which shuns Delia for not being hard enough on Muscat, the party is at risk of losing a segment which has been seduced by the Labour leader. In fact the polls suggest that despite lingering doubts on Delia, the party is actually re- grouping. One indication of this is that among those with a tertiary level of education while only 16% trust Delia over Muscat, 41% will vote PN. The problem for the PN is that it keeps losing voters rather than recovering those who shifted to Labour before the 2013 and 2017 general elections. The polls suggest that the party may be facing a third exodus. And while the bel- ligerent Busuttil managed to compensate some of the losses to Labour with some gains of his own ( thanks to the Pana- ma shocker), thus keeping the party's results at 2013 levels, Delia does not manage to com- pensate further losses with any gains. This particular statistic also suggests that even if Delia is removed and replaced by an- other leader who appeals to the more intransigent anti Muscat faction, the PN may be in an even weaker position in luring that segment of its vot- ers who have warmed up to the PL leader. Moreover Delia may also be suffering from the egrant leg- acy, which has left a segment of PN voters disoriented. This also suggests that Muscat's re- positioning of his party to the centre and in some instances in the centre-right is at the roots of the PN's problems. It may well reflect that under Muscat Labour has come to represent the aspirations of a chunk of PN voters who see in Muscat's party a reflection of the PN in its better times. 2. One in 20 of PN voters would now vote Labour The MaltaToday survey shows that 5% of PN voters in 2017 would now vote PL. This suggests that half of those who trust Muscat more than Delia have definitively crossed the rubicon and are now intent of supporting Labour all the way. Moreover the other half may represent an opportunity for even more growth for Labour. 3. PN makes no inroads among Labour voters The survey shows that on- ly 0.4% of PL voters in 2017 would vote for the PN. Less than 1% of PL voters trust De- lia more than Muscat. This suggests that Delia's anti elit- ism mostly directed against the old guard in his own party, has not charmed any signifi- cant number of Labour voters. Overall this suggests that not only is the party failing to at- tracts traditional PL voters but is unable to recover former PN voters who shifted to the PL before the 2013 and 2017 gen- eral elections. 4. The PN is losing more votes to third parties Third parties may not be making much of an overall im- pact scoring a miserable 1.5% nationally. But they are taking their toll on the PN. The Mal- taToday survey shows the PN losing 3.5% of its 2017 voters to the PD and AD. Of these 2.4% are going to the PD. On the other hand the PL is only losing 0.4% of its voters to AD and none to the PD. This shows that third parties are having absolutely no impact on the PL but are further draining strength from the PN. This may be surprising be- cause as a big tent party with more votes to shed and a high- er proportion of floaters in its ranks, the PL should be more vulnerable to third parties Yet this could also be explained by the PD's pre 2017 strategy of an alliance with the PN which now acts as a mental block for PL inclined voters toying with idea of voting for a small party. On the other hand AD- which retained it autonomy in 2017 and is more firmly po- sitioned on the left, still lacks the vigour to aggressively compete for the Labour vote. Yet significantly despite their inherent weakness, the MT survey shows Labour losing as much votes to the Greens as it is losing to the PN. It may be interesting to see how Labour would fare if it faces a more aggressive challenge from its left flank especially in view of growing social inequalities and anger on environmental issues. For while Labour has posi- tioned itself well in the centre ground to appeal to PN vot- ers, its hold on progressives may wane, especially if it slows down on its civil liberties agen- da which remains a redeeming factor for many liberal voters tuned off by Labour's record on governance. Bad polling can't be blamed entirely on the Nationalist Party's internal divisions. For this does not explain why a tenth of PN voters in 2017 now trust Muscat more than Delia and why one in every twenty will vote Labour Five reasons why polls are seriously JAMES DEBONO The problem for the PN is that it keeps losing voters rather than recovering those who shifted to Labour before the 2013 and 2017 general elections