Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1101649
12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 APRIL 2019 NEWS EUROPEAN ELECTIONS Alfred Sant and Frank Psaila make significant gains FORMER prime minister Alfred Sant has surged in the polls and is now run- ning neck and neck with fellow Labour MEP Miriam Dalli. Sant and Dalli each enjoyed the sup- port of 8.6% of the electorate in the second MaltaToday survey asking people to indicate their first-choice candidate in the upcoming European Parliament election. Sant's rise saw him overtake PN MEP Roberta Metsola, who placed third in the overall rankings with 5.1%. PN candidate Frank Psaila placed fourth with 4.4%. The survey was held between 28 March and 4 April. Sant climbed three-and-a-half points since the March survey as his election campaign started becoming more vis- ible. Dalli saw her share of first prefer- ence votes increase by half-a-percent- age point. Metsola's vote share decreased. The incumbent shaved off 0.8 points on her March result. But Psaila, a lawyer and presenter on NET TV, saw his share of the vote increase by 1.6 points as the newcomer strengthened his claim on the PN's second seat. The fifth-ranked overall candidate was PL newcomer Josianne Cutajar, a lawyer, who obtained 1.8% of first preference votes. PN MEP David Casa was joint sixth in the overall rankings with newcomer Peter Agius. Each scored 1.3% of first preference votes. Agius, who has built his campaign on rural issues and the agricultural sector, had not featured in the first survey last month. Casa, the only candidate who has been elected in each of the MEP elec- tions held since 2004, has had to con- tend with a bad run so far. If the PN loses its third seat, he could be left out in the cold but even if the party retains it, Casa could be fighting for his place with the likes of Agius. The results are, however, heavily con- ditioned by the fact that almost half the electorate (49.3%) has not made up its mind on which of the candidates will get its number one vote. Apart from Dalli, Sant and Metsola, all other featured candidates regis- tered results that fell below the 5% margin of error. Many candidates failed to get a men- tion, which does not mean they will re- ceive no votes. It is an indication that their personal electoral base may not be strong enough to be captured by the survey. While the results are a clear indica- tion of who the three front runners are, the election outcome will be de- termined by the transfer of votes at every count. A candidate who may start off at the first count with a few votes could still make it by inheriting votes from candidates that are either elected or eliminated. Political allegiance A breakdown of the results by politi- cal allegiance shows that Miriam Dalli was marginally ahead of Alfred Sant among those who voted for the Labour Party in the 2017 election. She received the support of 15.8% of PL voters while Sant received 15.3% support. Josianne Cutajar was the third most popular Labour candidate among PL voters with 3.5%, followed by Alex Agius Saliba (1.9%) and Cyrus Engerer (0.3%). The ranking of PL candidates among Labour voters was similar to the over- all results, a pattern observed among PN candidates as well. Roberta Metsola received the sup- port of 11.4% of people who voted PN in the last election, with Frank Psaila coming hot on her heels at 11.2%. Peter Agius and David Casa came head to head among PN voters, scor- ing 3.4% and 3.3% respectively. PN MP David Stellini, who only an- nounced his MEP candidature last month, scored 1% among Nationalist voters, and incumbent Francis Zam- mit Dimech, 0.9%. MEPs Miriam Dalli, Alfred Sant and Roberta Metsola continue to top the election rankings in the second MaltaToday survey mapping out voter choices 8.6% 5.1% 4.4% 1.3% 1.8% Methodology The survey was carried out between Thursday 28 March and Thursday 4 April. 597 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on gender, region and age was used to replicate the Maltese demographics. The estimated margin of error is 5% for a confidence interval of 95%. In the question that asked people to indicate their first choice MEP candidate, the names were not prompted. LEADING CANDIDATES Miriam Dalli (PL) Roberta Metsola (PN) Alfred Sant (PL) Frank Psaila (PN) Josianne Cutajar (PL) Peter Agius (PN) 8.6% The results are, however, heavily conditioned by the fact that almost half the electorate (49.3%) has not made up its mind on which of the candidates will get its number one vote KURT SANSONE