Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1113313
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 MAY 2019 NEWS MALTATODAY SURVEY Labour 15 points ahead of PN With less than three weeks to go before the European election, more voters are deciding whom to support. Kurt Sansone reports on the results of the latest MaltaToday survey Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 44.4% 26.8% 21.9% 6.9% 44.7% 25.9% 24.1% 68.0% 12.9% 15.5% 60.1% 22.7% 16.1% 42.8% 17.7% 37.1% Joseph Muscat Adrian Delia Neither Don't Know For which political party will you vote if a general election is held tomorrow? PL PN AD PD Imperium Europa Do not know No vote 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 44.1% 29.0% 3.9pp 12.4% -4.9pp 9.8% -4pp May (%) PP change from April 2019 Voting intentions among different categories of voters ALL PL 2017 PN 2017 AD 2017 Did not vote 2017 M F 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 44.1% 29.0% 12.4% 9.8% 83.6% 6.6% 7.6% 70.5% 14.8% 6.5% 50.3% 20.1% 29.6% 12.0% 10.5% 38.1% 39.4% 48.9% 23.1% 12.0% 11.0% 38.6% 35.7% 12.8% 8.4% 24.9% 31.1% 23.0% 14.8% 46.7% 20.2% 12.0% 13.0% 56.9% 34.0% 53.2% 29.9% 7.5% 65.5% 24.9% 51.4% 27.7% 8.5% 11.7% 37.2% 25.7% 6.2% 14.7% 12.3% 23.3% 35.0% 23.1% 7.3% 38.4% 26.8% 17.9% 9.1% 31.2% 36.7% 15.4% 40.7% 36.9% 8.5% 12.2% 56.3% 16.7% 16.1% 8.8% 59.6% 24.5% 7.4% 31.4% 25.0% 22.0% 15.8% PL PN AD PD Imperium Europa Do not know No vote 45 50 55 THE Labour Party leads the Na- tionalist Party by 15 points with 20 days to go until people vote in the European election, the latest Mal- taToday survey shows. The voting share for both ma- jor parties has increased since the April survey but for the first time in this election campaign Norman Lowell's Imperium Europa has registered in the polls. The PL scored 44.1%, more than two points higher on last month's result, and the PN scored 29%, an increase of just under four points. The results come on the back of a drop in those who say they will not vote, from 13.8% in April to 9.8% now. Similarly, those who are un- certain who to vote for, dropped from 17.3% last month to 12.4% in May. Although both parties have benefitted from these declines, it appears the PN edged Labour in attracting these voters. The gap between the two major parties has returned back to the level it was in March and based on these results, the difference would translate into a vote margin of just over 45,000. If the results are recalculated on the basis of declared voting inten- tion by excluding those who said they will not vote and who are un- certain, the difference between the parties would translate into a gap of almost 60,000 votes. Both calculations indicate that in terms of votes, the gap between the major parties may be larger than that in the last general elec- tion when the PL trumped the PN- PD coalition by 40,000 votes. The survey has for the first-time captured support for Norman Lowell, with 1.2% saying they will vote for the Imperium Europa candidate. The PD has failed to surpass the percentage point mark despite fielding its leader and MP, God- frey Farrugia, at the last minute. PL leads in all regions bar one A regional analysis of the survey results shows that the PN leads the PL in the Northern region and trails everywhere else. In the Northern region the PN registered 36.7% of the vote as op- posed to the PL's 31.2%. In Gozo the PL maintains its supremacy with 38.4% of the vote against the PN's 26.8%. The PL continues to draw signifi- cant strength from the two south- ern regions, where it approaches the 60% mark, a luxury the PN does not enjoy anywhere. However, the PN has made in- roads among young voters, eclips- ing the PL in this category. Among those aged between 18 and 35, the PN registered 31.2% support, as opposed to the PL's 24.9%. In all other age groups, the PL leads the PN by more than 22 points. The PL retains a larger propor- tion of its 2017 voters than the PN, a result that has been consistent for months. However, both parties have managed to retain a stronger share of 2017 voters now when compared to the April survey re- sults. Of those who voted PL in the last general election, 83.6% said they will vote for the same party on 25 May, while 70.5% of PN voters say they will support their party in less than a month's time. In April, the respective results stood at 77.5% for the PL and 61.1% for the PN. Methodology The survey was carried out be- tween Thursday 25 April and Fri- day 3 May. 602 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on gen- der, region and age was used to replicate the Maltese demograph- ics. The estimated margin of er- ror is 5% for a confidence interval of 95%. Gozo with 3.6%. The Maltese Patriots Move- ment with its anti-immigrant policy has consistently failed to register in the polls despite ap- pealing to the same voter base as Lowell's. It remains to be seen whether Lowell will manage to retain this support in the remaining three weeks to the election. He will not be a threat to the two major parties but can seri- ously embarrass the two estab- lished minor parties if he man- ages to get ahead of them. Norman Lowell: remember, the far-right loves European elections...