Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1128274
6 1. Delia simply does not want to leave. It would be hard to evict him Adrian Delia seems deter- mined to stay on as leader and try his luck in the next general elections. He promises that he would be resigning if he fails to make any inroads then. With Labour still to elect a new leader after Muscat, he may still harbour hopes of hanging on to the leadership by reducing the gap. The risk is that this may also send a loud and clear message to party opponents that the only way for the party to get rid of him would be encouraging abstentions in the Nationalist camp. To avert this risk Delia must impose his so-called "new way" on the party. Yet Delia is also aware that internal op- position remains too strong for him to make a clean sweep and impose his new way. So he remains at the mercy of inter- nal adversaries who can still periodically make his life hell and thus scupper any gains he could have made amongst voters. This was already prov- en in the past by his inabil- ity to side-line Simon Busuttil following the Egrant enquiry. The strength of internal op- position was confirmed by the election of Kevin Cutajar to parliament, after Jean Pierre Debono was forced to back down from the co-option. The risk facing the party is a long stalemate which would para- lyze Delia's ability to impose his 'new way', while at the same time preventing the par- ty from turning a new page. As a consequence impatient and demoralised voters may desert the party. In short: the spiral of decline may get out of control. In this way Delia may linger on as a lame duck marching to elec- toral oblivion, making it even harder for any successor to pick up the pieces in 2023. Yet Delia may bank on the unpredictable nature of poli- tics. For if a day in politics is a long time, three years is much longer. 2. Why should he even think of leaving if nobody is challenging him for the leadership? Delia's major advantage is that nobody has expressed a willing- ness to throw his name in the hat as an alternative leader. Delia knows that he can ward off a challenge by sim- ply showing determination on staying on. For in the absence of him vacating the post out of his own volition, any chal- lenger knows that he or she would condemn the party to a bloodbath, which would leave the party fatally wounded, even weakening the prospect of reducing the gap in the next general election. One major factor is that there is no clear path for the remov- al of a leader elected by party members and the process may be messy. On the other hand, a more orderly transition can take place if Delia resigns of his own volition after near certain defeat in the next gen- eral election. This would even give future contenders time to prepare and position them- selves as contenders in three years' time. Yet this would leave them in a catch-22 situation. For to make inroads in the party they would be obliged to give Delia a helping hand in reducing the gap. But if Delia succeeds in this undertaking, he may well decide to stay on even after the next election. The major dilemma for any- one with future leadership ambitions is how close or dis- tant, he or she would appear to be to Delia in the next three years. Ultimately any new PN leader will need the support of a majority of party members: the same college which elect- ed Delia. One way to avoid this treacherous path and pos- sibly thwart more hesitant contenders, would be to force a contest now, win it and face the music afterwards in the knowledge that things can't go any worse for the party. But the safest path for any- one harbouring leadership ambitions would be that of securing a peaceful transition after the general election by offering an olive branch to Delia now. 3. What's the rush? After all the PN is heading for certain defeat in the next elections The party did not need any reminder from its former gen- eral secretary Joe Saliba that it is heading to defeat in the next general election. This means that any present leadership contender won't become Prime Minister if Delia is removed now. Judging by the scale of the present gap and the solid- ity of Labour's core vote, se- curing victory in 2028 would also be very difficult. If Labour stays on in power till 2033 it would have been in power for 20 years, which is not unprecedented in Mal- tese history. In fact with the exception of Sant's two-year interlude between 1996 and 1998 the PN had been in pow- er for a quarter of a century from 1987 to 2013. The PN managed to keep power for so long with margins of less than 13,000 votes, which meant that a shift of 7,000 votes would have been enough to topple it from power. A more plausible path to power for a future PN leader would be that of narrowing the gap substantially in the 2028 general election to win maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 12 JUNE 2019 ANALYSIS Annual Orchestral Charity Concert featuring the Malta Philharmonic Orchestra Conductor Prof. Michael Laus with the participation of the Goldberg Ensemble at St John's Co-Cathedral on ursday 20 th June 2019 at 19.30 hrs A reception will be held aerwards. Entrance to the Concert and Reception is strictly by invitation Invitation-voucher(s) available from MASMOM offices, Casa Lanfreducci Pjazza Jean de Valette, adjacent to Our Lady of Victory Church,Valletta Tel. no.: 2122 6919 / 2124 6406 info@orderofmalta-malta.org.mt Annual Orchestral Charity e Maltese Association of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta and the St John's Co-Cathedral Foundation present their under the distinguished patronage of H.E. Dr George Vella President of Malta advertissement 2019 colour.indd 1 30/05/2019 12:29 Six reasons why Delia will probably Adrian Delia's determination to stay on as PN leader despite the party's humiliation in the European and local elections makes any change in the party's leadership extremely unlikely before the next general election. JAMES DEBONO explains why