Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1128274
power with a strong majority in 2033. This would render the next election a nuisance, best avoided by any leader as- piring to become PM. Any aspiring leader knows that two consecutive defeats in 2023 and 2028 could spell the end of any hopes of be- coming PM. So why not let Delia burn himself in the next election? 4. The PN does not even know who it will be facing as PL leader in 3 years' time. All the more reason to wait Even if a leadership chal- lenge is successful, the pro- spective PN leader would be facing uncertainty created by Muscat's intention to step down from the party leader- ship some time before the next general election. It would be far easier for any prospective PN leader to let Delia face this uncertainty and contest for the leadership after the next election after his/her adversary in Labour has been tried and tested. In this way Delia would serve as the guinea pig for the future leader. This may come at a risk if Delia performs better than expected. There is also a risk that Muscat may be convinced to stay on, vanquish Delia one again and thus leave the PN in an even more demoralised state than it is today. 5. What about appointing an interim leader as a stop- gap? But that only made sense after 2017's shocker One solution touted in the past months, is the election of an interim leader instead of Delia. Names floated around in- clude that of former social policy minister and leader- ship contender in 2004 Louis Galea and former EU com- missioner and deputy leader Tonio Borg. Both can be considered el- derly stalwarts with no lead- ership ambitions of their own. This would make them best placed for leading the party in to a voyage of self-discovery thus facing the existential problems, which have been plaguing it since 2008. This may well have made sense back in 2017 immedi- ately after the election defeat. But embarking on such a path now, less than three years before the general elec- tions would either mean that the interim leader would have to lead the party in the next election (which would be confusing for the electorate), or that the leader elected af- ter the interim phase would barely have a year before fac- ing the electorate. The choice of interim leader could also weigh heavily on the party. Electing someone who lacks charisma or who may be tempted to direct the party in a more socially conservative direction could sink the party further. On the other hand electing someone with too much vi- sion and charisma may well turn the interim leader in to a force to be reckoned with especially if he manages to achieve more than is expected of him or her. Crucially an interim leader would need Delia's seal of ap- proval especially in view that there is no provision for a temporary leader in the par- ty's statutes. Otherwise his appointment could well be seen as an at- tempt to rig the machine in favour of a future contestant. This means that Delia's de- termination to stay effectively kills this prospect. 6. The problems are too deep for any leader to heal Perhaps Delia was right in consoling himself about the PN remaining the second largest party. It may well be the case that the problems faced by the PN are even greater than the personalities involved and the process of decline is a sheer consequence of Labour oc- cupying the political centre ground after gaining approval of the business elites. Yet Labour itself may end up facing the same identity prob- lems now plaguing the PN af- ter Muscat's departure. The crisis in the PN may well be the first chapter in the crisis of the entire political system with the two parties finding it increasingly hard to fit the entire political spec- trum in their own ranks. This may well open spaces on Labour's left and the PN's right for new oppositions to take root in what would be- come an increasingly volatile landscape, especially if this coincides with an economic slowdown. In such a scenario remain- ing the second largest party would be no mean feat. Yet Maltese political parties – bolstered by the electoral system – have so far defied the risks of fragmentation, and have tended to realign around successful charismat- ic leaders after decades in the wilderness of the opposition. Will the PN prove this pat- tern wrong? maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 12 JUNE 2019 7 ANALYSIS Any aspiring leader knows that two consecutive defeats in 2023 and 2028 could spell the end of any hopes of becoming PM probably stay on as PN leader