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6 REBEL MPs and party activists have cunningly picked on Adi- an Delia's greatest weakness: his unwillingness to seek a con- firmation vote from council- lors as suggested by former PN leader Lawrence Gonzi, in the aftermath of the party's mid- term electoral disaster. Instead of calling for such a vote himself from a position of strength as the leader who willingly faces his party's ver- dict, the hesitant leader found himself facing a vote demand- ed by those who want him out. Delia probably thinks it is unfair for him to submit to a vote of no confidence after losing the European and local elections, when former lead- ers in the same position failed to do so. He may try to stop the vote from happening al- though this would leave him politically weaker – even if he is right in questioning the le- gitimacy of such a vote. For the rebels have invoked an article in the party's stat- ute through which the party's highest organ, the General Council, can be convened at the request of 150 of its mem- bers, to force a vote on the leadership even if the statute itself actually says leadership matters can only be the com- petence of the General Con- vention (which elected Delia through the party's paid-up members). The only clause applicable to the leader is that obliging a vote in the General Con- vention in the space of three months after a general elec- tion. So while Delia has called the bluff of rebel MPs by staying on in the absence of a direct challenge for his leadership, he has also underestimated their ability to gather 150 sig- natures with the aim of put- ting his leadership on the par- ty's agenda. Yet while the rebels may now be closer to their goal of de- throning or weakening Delia, they may well have unleashed a nuclear bomb at Pietà, which may well leave the whole party weaker irrespective of the out- come of the vote. In fact, out of the five possible outcomes precipitated by their actions, only the two most unlikely ones: namely a strong major- ity in the council for or against Delia, that would give the par- ty much needed stability. 1. Delia is confirmed by a large majority of councillors If a confidence vote in De- lia is deemed admissible, only a strong majority for Delia would conclusively resolve the issue in his favour, nip- ping the rebellion in the bud and silence critics in the par- liamentary group, for anyone putting the spokes in Delia's wheel after such a vote would be seen as a spoiler. Delia's own reluctance to call for such a vote himself sug- gests this outcome is unlikely. Moreover, the risk by those calling for such a vote suggests they believe in a good chance of succeeding in dethroning him. Yet it remains difficult to determine what should qualify as a strong vote for Delia. It is hard to imagine Delia winning the election with the support of 96% of party councillors as Gonzi did when faced with his own small backbench rebel- lion in 2012. In 2017 Delia qualified for the second round after 616 out of 1,354 councillors voted for him. Yet the combined sup- port for Chris Said and Alex Peric Calascione amounted to 721. While in normal cir- cumstances one would expect that over time councillors who supported other candi- dates would converge around the new leader, this may not be the case with Delia, whose leadership was never accepted by a large segment of the par- ty. 2. Delia is deposed by a large majority of councillors A strong majority to remove Delia would most probably put an end to Delia's ambi- tions and usher an internal contest or transitional phase in which Delia will no longer be a factor worth consider- ing. Such a humiliation would make it hard for Delia to run in any subsequent leadership election. It would signify that the mood in the party has turned against him. But this outcome is also un- likely. Apart from the fact that Delia still commands the support of a large segment of the party, some middle-of- the-road councillors would be wary of the risk of opening a Pandora's box that could leave the PN weaker, preferring in- stead the status quo. Once again it is difficult to quantify what a strong vote against Delia means. A sub- stantial drop from the 616 mark would be a strong in- dication of Delia's fall from grace. Even if he is removed by a large majority of coun- cillors, the party would still face the prospect of electing a maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 26 JUNE 2019 ANALYSIS Five scenarios for the PN if Delia Only a strong – though unlikely – no-confidence vote can end the PN's civil war. In reality, whether Adrian Delia survives or is dethroned by a few votes, the confidence vote demanded by councillors will only accelerate the PN's meltdown, JAMES DEBONO says While the rebels may now be closer to their goal of dethroning or weakening Delia, they may well have unleashed a nuclear bomb at Pietà, which may well leave the whole party weaker irrespective of the outcome of the vote

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