Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1135150
new leader despite the dim prospects it faces in the next general election. Strong can- didates aiming at the premier- ship may prefer running after the next general election. In short, even in the most favourable scenario for the rebels, the vote could have unforeseen consequences simply because councillors would be voting to depose Delia without knowing who would be replacing him. Even if the party opts for an interim leader, they would still need confirmation – and may even face a challenge. 3. Delia is removed by a small majority of councillors This may be the most dan- gerous scenario for the party. If Delia manages to retain the same level of support as in 2017 or even increase his support but still lose the confidence vote, he may well argue that party members should have the final say on whether he should stay on as leader. The no-confidence vote may then be interpreted as a reversal of the popular vote amongst party members from whom Delia will con- tinue seeking his legitimacy as leader, and will not prevent him from seeking his way back into the leadership by re-contesting the leadership. It is also likely that opposi- tion to Delia will split into rival factions loyal to differ- ent contenders representing different visions for the party. This may trigger a divisive campaign in the party which could effectively divide the party not just in two, but into even more pieces. And that would lead to blame on the instigators of the no-confi- dence motion for an acrimo- nious split which would leave the party even weaker than it is today. 4. Delia is confirmed by a small majority of councillors Surviving by a whisker will not be enough to silence his critics, who will still attempt to thwart Delia's authority by presenting themselves as the representatives of a large seg- ment which no longer recog- nises Delia's leadership. But Delia may well inter- pret this as a success achieved against all odds, a feat consid- ering the backstabbing he has faced in the past two years, and use the result to impose his so called 'new way'. But two conflicting interpreta- tions of a result may well in- crease the risk of implosion as more voters desert the faction ridden party. 5. The leadership stops the vote from taking place, deeming it inadmissible Fully knowing that any out- come except a strong con- firmation for Delia would be used against it, the leadership may well try to avoid the vote on the basis that it is not fore- seen in the party's statute. Certainly those opposed to Delia will deplore any legalis- tic attempt to block the vote as an attempt to thwart inter- nal democracy. The Delia fac- tion will hit back at the rebels putting in question their "rule of law" credentials, arguing that they are not even capa- ble of respecting the party's statute. After a divisive con- flict of interpretation of the party's own statute, further confusion and legal wrangling could bring the party closer to a split: if the rival factions cannot even agree on the stat- ute, it may well mean that a divorce is closer. And while former candidate Ivan Bartolo, the first promi- nent name to sign the peti- tion, argues that he wants to avoid Labour winning a two- thirds majority in the next general election, a split pre- cipitated by the petition may well make this outcome more likely. But the real aim of the pro- ponents could be that of pre- senting Delia with Hobson's choice: either thwart their demand on statutory grounds and risk being perceived as anti-democratic, or to submit to the judgement of council- lors to expose the level of dis- contentment in party organs with his leadership. This will inevitably erode Delia's leadership especially if his authority is further chal- lenged by the party's General Council. If that is the case the petition is a warning shot that if he intends to stay on, De- lia must prepare himself for three years of Chinese tor- ture. maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 26 JUNE 2019 7 ANALYSIS Delia goes to a confidence vote While former candidate Ivan Bartolo argues that he wants to avoid Labour winning a two- thirds majority in the next general election, a split precipitated by the petition may well make this outcome more likely