Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1137604
5 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 30 JUNE 2019 NEWS EUROPE smallest of prizes. This scenario sees the Social- ists taking the top job and it is almost 100% certain they will not get any other post. This means Muscat will be out of the equation. Scenario 2 European Commission – EPP European Council – Socialists European Parliament – Liberals In this scenario, the most likely names that emerge as fa- vourites are: • Manfred Weber/Michel Barnier/Kristalina Gior- gieva – EPP – Germany/ France/Bulgaria • Joseph Muscat/Helle Thornig Schmidt – Socialists – Malta/Den- mark • Guy Verhofstadt – Lib- erals – Belgium Merkel would have made the biggest win as she would have got her candidate to the Eu- ropean Commission. Weber's choice would depend on how big the opposition to his can- didacy is among EU leaders, most notably the French Pres- ident and the Visegrad group of countries. This scenario would clear the way for Socialists to take the European Council seat. This would limit the choice to only two or three likely so- cialist candidates, including Muscat and the former Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorn- ing Schmidt. Muscat will be in pole posi- tion because he is the most senior Socialist Prime Min- ister, having under his belt a European election victory with the largest majority of all European parties. Thorn- ing Schmidt has been out of the European Council for five years but the fact that she would tick the 'female' box would slightly increase her odds. The Spanish could also push their own candidate, possibly foreign minister Josep Borrell. Geographically this option seems to provide a reasonable balance. Scenario 3 European Commission – Liberals European Council – Socialists/EPP European Parliament – Socialists/EPP In this scenario, the most likely names that emerge as fa- vourites are: • Liberals – Margrethe Vestager – Denmark • Socialist – Joseph Muscat – Malta or EPP – Andrej Plenkovic – Croatia • Socialist – Frans Tim- mermans – Netherlands or EPP – Manfred We- ber – Germany This is an unlikely scenario since the Liberals, who are on- ly the third party, would take the top post. However, there is a chance that this would represent the Spitzenkandidat process since Vestager was the Liberals' first choice candi- date. In this set-up there is also space for the Socialists and EPP to take one of the top jobs between the Council and the Commission. If the Socialists take the Council, this would mean that Muscat would be in pole posi- tion. If the EPP get the Coun- cil than his chances are all but dead. This option would provide gender representation but would inverse the electoral re- sult, giving the smallest party the largest prize. ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt If the Socialists take the European Council seat, this would limit the choice to only two or three likely Socialist candidates, including Joseph Muscat (right) and the former Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning Schmidt (left). Muscat will be in pole position because he is the most senior Socialist Prime Minister but Thorning cold tick the 'female' box to increase her odds