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25.07.19 13 OPINION Nicholas Allen Nicholas Allen is a Reader in Politics at Royal Holloway B oris Johnson has been confirmed as the Conservative Party's new leader – and the UK's next prime minister. Johnson is the eighth post-war prime minister to take office midway through a parliament. e other eight premier- ships in that period began with victory in a general election. ere is nothing unusual in the mode of Johnson's accession. e United Kingdom is a parliamentary system and governments derive their author- ity from being able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. ere is no constitutional requirement for a new prime minister to have won an election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, the next election is not due until May 2022. Everyone at Westminster knows this. But constitutional reality will not prevent demands for an early general election and for Johnson to win the backing of the country. e arguments are well rehearsed. Voters at the last election were choosing a different prime minister and expect- ing them to serve a full term. e new man wants to do things that were not set out in the party's manifesto. ere should be an election without delay. Oddly enough, the new Conservative leader made exactly this argument in 2007, when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair. Johnson was seemingly in- dignant about Brown's apparent belief that he could "just trample on the dem- ocratic will of the British people". He is likely to be reminded of this re- peatedly. But could he yet avoid similar criticisms by, like eresa May in April 2017, suprisingly calling a snap elec- tion? Of the seven post-war prime ministers before Johnson who took office midway through a parliament, almost all toyed with going straight to the country. But only one, Anthony Eden, went ahead and did so. He succeeded Winston Churchill in early April 1955 and won a comfortable parliamentary majority the following month. Among the remaining six, only e- resa May sought an election very much sooner than was strictly necessary. Her decision to do so, nine months after succeeding David Cameron, caught everyone by surprise. Unfortunately for May, the Conservatives increased their share of the vote but squandered their majority. e outcome of the June 2017 election is likely to weigh heavy on Johnson's mind. But so too will the fate of other prime ministers who, having taken of- fice, deferred their chance of going to the country. Damned if you don't? Alec Douglas-Home, prime minister for just short of a year, lost the 1964 general election. James Callaghan, who could have called an election in the au- tumn of 1978 when Labour was ahead in the polls, ducked the chance. A no con- fidence vote in the House of Commons triggered the 1979 election, which was won by the Conservatives and Margaret atcher. Brown similarly ducked an early elec- tion in the autumn of 2007. Having en- couraged speculation, his decision not to go ahead contributed to a collapse in his authority. He went on to lose in 2010. John Major fared better. He hoped that the passage of time would enable the Tories to recover from the Poll Tax debacle and atcher's personal unpop- ularity. His strategy paid off with victo- ry in 1992, albeit with a much reduced majority. A summer vote? Recent newspaper reports suggest Johnson is gearing up for an election in the summer of 2020. e arguments for waiting at least a year are clear. From his point of view, waiting will give him a chance to get a feel for the job. It will also give him a chance to experience the trappings of power. Be- coming prime minister has been a life- long ambition and Johnson will want to enjoy his prize. From his party's point of view, the polls currently don't look good. Wait- ing would give the Tories time to see off the threat posed by the Brexit Party. Johnson has promised that the UK will leave the European Union at the end of October, with or without a deal. Once Britain is out, the Brexit Party will be redundant. Pro-Brexit voters, and their donations, might return in droves. e time of year is a further argument against an immediate election. Party activists have planned their summer holidays. Many voters will be away. e disruption could be immense. ere is also the practical matter of securing an early election. Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, prime min- isters could simply ask the Queen to dis- solve parliament. Now they must secure the backing of at least two-thirds of all MPs or else engineer a successful vote of no confidence, ensuring there is no viable alternative government. Johnson will become prime minister on the day before parliament rises for its summer recess. ere would be little time to act. But there are also arguments for not waiting. Seeking an immediate election would enable Johnson to define him- self as a leader with "gumption", some- one who is willing to take chances to break the present deadlock over Brex- it. It would enable him to fend off talk of missing mandates and to avoid the charge of hypocrisy given his criticism of Brown back in 2007. Seeking an immediate election could even counter the threat of a no confi- dence vote in the House of Commons. If only a handful of Tory MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit defect to the Liberal Democrats, Johnson will have no ma- jority, even with the DUP's support. Moreover, the arrival of a new prime minister tends to give his or her party a bounce in the polls. Labour, which has its own troubles, would be caught on the hop. And Johnson would start an election off the back of his leadership campaign. He would be warmed up for the fight. If the Conservatives were to win a snap election, Johnson would have a mandate for his vision of Brexit. His personal au- thority would be very great. is would matter enormously if it were necessary for him to accept some kind of com- promise with the EU before October. It would be equally important if Britain were to leave the EU without a deal. Of course, any prospect of winning would hinge on Johnson being able to persuade a large number of people presently backing the Brexit Party to support him. Like so much in British politics at present, Johnson's confidence in his ability to persuade is a matter of pure speculation. Indeed, any talk of early elections is necessarily speculative. As atcher wrote in her memoirs: "Calling an elec- tion is a big decision, and by constitu- tional convention is a matter for the prime minister alone." Only Johnson knows his own mind – and maybe not even he. Will Boris Johnson call an early election? Boris Johnson is the eighth post- war prime minister to take office midway through a parliament