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MALTATODAY 22 September 2019

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6 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 22 SEPTEMBER 2019 NEWS INDEPENDENCE DAY JAMES DEBONO INDEPENDENCE week is tra- ditionally the time for Nation- alist Party activists to regroup at the Floriana granaries after the summer interlude, feast- ing on bigilla, bebbux as well as politics. It is on this folksy occasion of partisan and national remem- brance that the PN leader was also expected to set the party's direction during the annual mass meeting. These celebra- tions are an important histori- cal reference point for activists who recall the time when In- dependence Day was removed from the calendar of national holidays by Dom Mintoff's Labour administration of the 1970s. And of course, the size of the meeting itself has always been seen as a barometer of the par- ty's strength and enthusiasm of its supporters. Which is why this year's downscaled events, held around the PN headquarters in Pietà rather than at the vast ex- panse of the granaries, sent out yet another depressing signal to supporters. The decision may have been dictated by financial consider- ations, but it also points to the party's decline. Leader Adrian Delia will most certainly re- main PN leader till the next general election after winning the trust of 67% of party coun- cillors last July, but he is widely seen as a lame duck heading for certain defeat. And no one else has stepped forward to take away his poisoned chalice. Yet, in politics nothing can be taken for granted and hope is the last thing to die. So which are the 'hopeful' helium bal- loons that Delia can cling to? And which are the anchors holding him down, and the temptations which may lead him astray? Helium balloons The proverbial 10-year itch 1962-1971, 1971-1981, 1987- 1996. These are the numbers representing historical 10-year cycles which saw govern- ments lose their majority after 10 years in government. And even when Gonzi broke the cycle in 2008, he only won by 1,500 votes. Delia has often spoken of political cycles but there is nothing written that these are cast in stone. And so far, apart from some discon- tentment on the environment there have been little signs of an itch among Labour voters and floaters. A new leader after Muscat Joseph Muscat keeps every- one guessing on whether he will resign from leader before the next general election. Delia may still live in hope that the succession in the Labour Party will degenerate into a civil war that would fatally weaken the next party leader, whose stat- ure may pale in comparison with Muscat's. An economic slowdown So far, Muscat has had all the stars aligned with his first term coinciding with lower oil prices and a favourable international climate. But an international recession may be on the hori- zon and the property market may be showing the first signs of slowing down. This may make the government more vulnerable especially if the eco- nomic growth of the past years is exposed as fragile and too dependent on the construction sector. A slowdown could give the Opposition steam. Pockets of disgruntlement Pockets of disgruntlement may be emerging as the gov- ernment inevitably takes de- cisions which do not keep everyone happy. This is also bound to create pockets of dis- gruntled businessmen, prop- erty owners and aspirants for public posts who feel left out. Labour's success has been to avoid the perception that only a clique is benefitting. This is bound to become more dif- ficult and Delia may already be meeting people who fit the profile: ex-Nationalists who turned Labour, who may con- sider turning back if they are promised something in return. These people may also have deep pockets, something the PN would want to tap into. Deadweight anchors The gap is too large and keeps growing The 47,000-vote gap in lo- cal elections held across the country last May, the loss of traditional PN majority councils, and the loss of the third seat in the European Parliament were a reminder that the road is still uphill. The results signalled that the worse was still not over for his party. As the PN enters a downward spiral, the gap could continue to grow. Safe leader, divided party 67% of party councillors ex- pressed trust in Delia but the party remains divided and the leader still finds it hard to as- sert his own authority. Moreo- ver, new reference points like the NGO Repubblika have been created for former PN activists who distrust Delia but are too highly motivated to simply disappear from the scene. No generational renewal The party is increasingly a geriatric one, failing to attract fresh talent and foster a new generation of spokespersons. The shadow cabinet is simply no match for Labour's cabinet. People find it hard to consider an alternative Nationalist gov- ernment and this on its own keeps potential new PN can- didates from joining the fray. Temptations Luring back the businessmen Labour may take pride in be- ing a pro-business party but some of its decisions are bound to hurt. Naturally, the PN cannot af- ford not to have a constructive dialogue with developers and business at large. But how far can the PN go in exploiting any disgruntlement? Delia's stance on rent reform, which grants the Housing Authority the power to inspect houses to enforce a law meant to protect tenants, has already been shot down by social justice activists. Delia may find himself running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, one day com- plaining on unaffordable hous- ing and the next day opposing the government's attempts to address this issue. This con- fuses people. Reclaiming a conservative identity In his first Independence Day speech as leader, Delia referred to Religio et Patria in what was seen as an indication of him taking the party back to its conservative roots. As leader, he has toyed with rhetoric on foreigners even if his target was never refugees and asylum seekers. He has been unflinch- ing in opposing abortion but is more liberal on LGBTIQ is- sues. The temptation to pan- der to conservatism may grow but clearly Delia is no Salvini or Trump. The PN leader lacks a consistent narrative of the sort, despite flirting with conservatism. Supporting any opposition The party may find it con- venient to support anyone who is protesting against govern- ment, irrespective of whether the protestors are environ- mentalists, social justice activ- ists or developers' lobbies. This may, in the end, perpetuate the impression that the party lacks direction. Balloons of hope versus deadweight anchors: the state of the PN

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