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MALTATODAY 11 December 2019 Midweek

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11 NORTHERN Ireland is well known for its deep divisions. But as the 2019 general election approaches its five main politi- cal parties are united on at least one thing – strong opposition to the Brexit deal negotiated by Boris Johnson's government with the European Union. Un- ionist parties fear that the cur- rent terms of the withdrawal agreement would leave North- ern Ireland economically de- tached from the rest of the UK, posing long-term risk to the union with Great Britain. Nationalist parties see Brex- it as a decision imposed on Northern Ireland against its will, and ultimately seek a united Ireland within the EU. Meanwhile the Alliance Party, neither nationalist nor union- ist, sees Brexit as a threat to community relations within Northern Ireland. It wants a fresh referendum with an option to Remain on the bal- lot. Taken together, the com- plex interplay of Brexit with Northern Ireland's underly- ing ethno-national divisions makes the forthcoming elec- tion one of the most conse- quential and unpredictable for some time. Divisions within unionism The Democratic Union- ist Party (DUP) goes into the election defending ten seats. After signing a confidence- and-supply agreement with Theresa May's minority Con- servative government in 2017, its MPs have been influen- tial over the last parliament. However, they were appar- ently not influential enough to prevent the government from agreeing to "a border down the Irish Sea". The smaller Ulster Union- ist Party (UUP), which held a pro-Remain position in the 2016 referendum, is challeng- ing the Leave-supporting DUP over its handling of Brexit. While the DUP still supports leaving the EU "as one United Kingdom", the UUP's new leader says it would be better to "cancel Brexit" than imple- ment the current deal. However, the UUP faces an uphill struggle. It presents a realistic challenge to the DUP in South Antrim, a seat it nar- rowly lost in 2017, but it is starting from a low base. Its overall credibility has been further weakened by tacti- cally standing aside in Belfast North, boosting the DUP's chances in a close race with Sinn Féin. Principle versus pragmatism Aside from the DUP, Sinn Féin was the only other party in Northern Ireland to win seats at the last general elec- tion. However, unlike the DUP (and one independent MP), none of its eight MPs took their seats at Westmin- ster, which reflected the par- ty's longstanding principle of abstentionism. The last two years marked the first period since 1966 that no national- ist MPs represented a North- ern Irish constituency in the House of Commons. With so many knife-edge votes during the course of the last parliament, there had been regular speculation that Sinn Féin might suddenly abandon its abstentionist po- sition. Such a prospect never materialised; the party's "re- fusal to validate British sov- ereignty" in Northern Ireland continues to outweigh any short-term desire to influ- ence the outcome of Brexit. This provides the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) with an opportunity to distinguish itself from its larger nationalist rival. Hav- ing lost Foyle to Sinn Féin by just 169 votes in 2017, the SDLP is sparing no effort to win it back, arguing that a vote for the party is a chance to "stop Boris and stop Brex- it". But, like the UUP, it also stood aside in Belfast North – in this case to help Sinn Féin. Beyond the ethno-national di- vide While Brexit has to some extent reinvigorated the con- stitutional issue in Northern Ireland, a growing segment of the population is choosing to reject the labels of union- ist and nationalist, identifying instead as "neither". How- ever, this group has generally not been a significant elec- toral force. Things appeared to change earlier in 2019. In May's local elections the Alli- ance Party increased its num- ber of councillors by 65%. The Alliance "surge" con- tinued the following month when its leader, Naomi Long, was elected to the European parliament. Securing nearly one in five first preferences across Northern Ireland, this was the party's highest vote share of any election since it was founded in 1970. If Alli- ance is able to consolidate or even increase its overall vote share, a different electoral system could make it more difficult this time around for support to translate into seats (a proportional system was used in the local and Euro- pean elections). That said, the party's calls for a referendum could help it gain traction in North Down, a traditionally unionist constituency where a majority of voters backed Remain in 2016. More broadly, Alliance will be trying to tap into a wide- spread sense of frustration with the status quo, with the DUP and Sinn Féin likely to bear the brunt of any blame for the ongoing stalemate in the Northern Ireland Assem- bly. With healthcare workers on strike over "unsafe" condi- tions, concerns are deepening over the direction of public services. The growing sali- ence of these concerns – rela- tively late in the campaign – adds a further source of unpredictability ahead of one of the most competitive elec- tions in Northern Ireland for some time. maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 DECEMBER 2019 James Pow is a Lecturer within the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen's University Belfast OPINION Election 2019: what's at play in Northern Ireland? www.creditinfo.com.mt info@creditinfo.com.mt Tel: 2131 2344 Your Local Partner for Credit Risk Management Solutions Supporting you all the way James Pow DUP leader Arlene Foster keeps a watchful eye over Nigel Dodds, her man in Westminster

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