Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1191190
6 JAMES DEBONO PEOPLE were surprise at last Sunday's survey, which showed Labour retaining its support and four in 10 agreeing with Jo- seph Muscat's decision to leave in January. The surprise was probably greater in professional and aca- demic circles, where Muscat's popularity is now at its lowest ebb. Expectations of a quick melt down in support for Labour may well be rooted in senti- ments prevailing amongst a particular cohort of educated middle class voters, which is often reinforced by the echo chamber effect. Support for Muscat, despite the damning information link- ing his closest aides to the as- sassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia, is also a reflection of the sentiments reinforced by the party media and Labour Fa- cebook groups such as Labur- isti sal-mewt. A breakdown of the survey results by educational level at- tained, gives a reason why dif- ferent social groups are react- ing differently to the crisis. University educated respond- ents are nearly twice as likely as other respondents to think that Joseph Muscat should resign immediately and not wait until 12 January when a new Labour leader is set to be elected. The survey shows that among respondents who disagree with Muscat's decision to step down on 12 January, 27.3% replied that he should resign now. But among the tertiary edu- cated the percentage rises to 48.1%. If one where to take in to ac- count all respondents includ- ing those who agreed with Muscat's decision to step down on 12 January, one finds that 30% of all tertiary educated respondents want him to step down immediately compared to only 15.6% nationally. In a clear indication that the university educated are more likely to consider Muscat's po- sition untenable, only 7% of the tertiary educated think that he should carry on with the man- date despite the dark cloud of suspicion hanging over him. This contrasts with 15% of all respondents, who believe Mus- cat should continue with his mandate. These figures are only indica- tive and have to be taken with caution since respondents who agreed with Muscat step- ping down on 12 January were not asked specifically whether Muscat should resign immedi- ately. It is possible that some agreed with him stepping down in Jan- uary but would have preferred him to do so immediately. In fact, a large chunk of PN voters replied that they agree with Muscat's decision. Moreo- ver, nearly half of those who disagree with him resigning in a month's time, replied 'don't know' when asked why, thus making their reply somewhat hard to interpret. PN makes limited gains among university educated But the survey also exposes a sharp divide between those with a university education and the rest of the population with regards to voting intentions. The poll shows that while La- bour lost a single percentage point compared to last month, Labour losses increase to nearly three points among the univer- sity educated. On the other hand, while the PN has not made any gains among all the other educa- tional groups, among the uni- versity educated its support has increased by 13 points. The increase comes on the back of a sharp decline in tertiary edu- cated respondents who intend not to vote if an election is held now. Support for Labour has in- creased by six points among those with a primary level of education. Surprisingly, even among those with a post-secondary level of education, support for Labour has risen slightly. This may reflect the yearn- ing for stability among vot- ers who may have benefitted from economic growth or social policy measures under the current administration. It may also reflect the allure of Labour's neoliberal mantra which promises to turn us all in to 'little rich men'. Why is Labour losing sup- port among the university educated? While this educational divide may be attributed to traditional political and class alignments, it could also have to do with ac- cess to information and the way information on political events is digested and shared. One reason for divergent views amongst different educa- tional groups may be that while the tertiary educated are more likely to read information pub- lished in the independent me- dia, those with a lower level of education may be more reliant on news from the more parti- san media, including party TV stations. The fact that One News downplayed the role of Schem- bri in the murder case to the extent that he was reported to be talking to the police rather than interrogated (mitkellem mal-pulizija) may be a big fac- tor in the way its audience as- sessed recent events. The fact that Labour made gains among those who lack a secondary education, suggests that tribal loyalties are greater among the least educated. The pattern is also observed in other countries, where less ed- ucated voters gravitate towards maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 DECEMBER 2019 NEWS ANALYSIS A post- crisis survey carried out by MaltaToday has exposed the sharp divide between the tertiary educated and the rest of the population Why opposition to Muscat is greater among graduates Letter of Intention The Director, Mr. Rahman Muhammad Habibur of ANAYA LIMITED., declares their intention for the company to register for an Employment Agency licence in accordance to article 23 of the Employment and Training Services Act, 1990 (Act XXVIII of 1990). The activities proposed to be carried out are the following: 1) Recruitment Consultancy 2) Interviewing, selection and placements of candidates in employment 3) Recruitment of persons from abroad to employment in Malta or in an EU member state 4) Recruitment of persons in Malta for employment in Malta or in an EU member state 5) Advertising of the filling of vacancies 6) Keeping a register of applicants for employment Official Registered Office Address: 19, Triq il-Kappella, San Gwann, SGN 1345, Malta The office address of the premises at which the employment agency or employment business is to be carried out: 19, Triq il-Kappella, San Gwann, SGN 1345, Malta Company Registration Number: C93420 Do you agree with Muscat's decision to leave in January Tertiary All Yes 37.5% 43.2% No 62.5% 56.8% Of those who say no, should Muscat… Tertiary All Resign now 48.1% 27.3% Carry on with the mandate 11.2% 26.4% Don't know 40.6% 46.3% Voting intentions among the tertiary educated May Nov Dec Change Change since Nov since May PL 42.7% 27.7% 25.1% -2.6p -17.6p PN 19.4% 19.1% 32.1% +13p +12.7p Won't vote 9.5% 31% 15.9% -15.1p -6.4p Others 3% 4.7% 3.9% -0.8p +0.9p Undecided 25.4% 17.1% 23% +5.9p -2.4p Party gains/ losses among different educational categories when latest survey is compared to November survey PL PN Primary +5.6p -6.6p Secondary -1.3p -2.2p Post-Sec +1.2p -5.5p Tertiary -2.6p +13p In the absence of credible oppositions, it is not surprising that Labour retains, even in these unprecedented and desperate times, its support