Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1191190
10 OPINION maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 DECEMBER 2019 A lot has been written about parallels between the pre- sent political situation and the 1980s. But while it certainly does feels like we're back in those turbulent, uncompro- mising times… the picture on the ground suggests something slightly different. Whatever it may feel like in the comfort of one's own pri- vate social media bubble, we now have two independent surveys indicating that there has been no real substantive change at electoral level. In spite of everything that has happened in the past two weeks, the gap between government and opposition still hovers at around 15.5%: broadly comparable to the situation over the past seven years. From this perspective, any comparison with the 1980s goes out of the window. Back then, the Opposition's re- sounding battle-cry was built around the word 'Bidla' – change – and a clear majority rallied behind it: paving the way to the seminal 1987 elec- tion victory for the PN. Today, the key word re- mains 'change' – and not just a change of prime minister, but also a reform of the entire system to create a fairer and cleaner way of doing politics, etc. But there is evidence that the majority is just not buying it this time round. Impressive though the pro- test turn-outs may have be- come, the movement itself remains limited to a single special-interest minority lobby-group. They might be loud, and their strategies may have briefly captured the pub- lic imagination; but statisti- cally, we are still very far away from a groundswell grassroots movement that can actually bring about the changes it so passionately advocates. It therefore feels more like we're back to immediately be- fore the 2017 election. Then as now, we had an Opposi- tion movement (albeit still largely limited to the Nation- alist Party) hitching its wagon exclusively to a single issue – Egrant, at the time – and pro- pelled by a misplaced sense of optimism: fuelled in turn by the sheer enthusiasm of large and boisterous anti-govern- ment protests. With hindsight of the 2017 election result (and even with- out it) we can safely conclude that a significant chunk of the electorate was simply out of touch with the mood among a much larger segment of the population. The result was an 'unexpected' electoral defeat (by the PN, at least); resulting in the entire party tail-spin- ning into the irresolvable cri- sis it still finds itself in today. This, in fact, constitutes about the only real difference between today and three years ago. For until 2017, the Parlia- mentary Opposition was still exclusively composed of one party: a situation that would alter radically with PD's elec- tion of two seats in that elec- tion. Repubblika and Occupy Jus- tice didn't exist yet; and in any case they had yet to assume the anti-PN stand that would come with Adrian Delia's as- cendancy to the party leader- ship. This in turn means that the only change since 2017 has been further fragmenta- tion of the forces opposing the Labour government. There are admittedly seis- mic movements currently tak- ing place within the Labour Party, too. Joseph Muscat's 'movement of progressives and moderates' now lies in tatters on the ground; and the emergence of Robert Abela as a leadership contender (and now possibly also Ian Borg) suggests that PL may yet face the same sort of internecine conflict that has meanwhile torn the PN apart. But these are purely conjec- tural considerations, at this stage. Regardless who wins the leadership election, polls still suggest that the Maltese elec- torate will continue to trust Labour over its fragmented Opposition for the foresee- able future. And I think it's high time we started coming to grips with why. Part of the reason is already glaringly visible to all who care to look: since 2017, Adrian Delia has consistently failed to make inroads among the disaffected thousands (mostly composed of former National- ist voters) who now boo him just as emphatically as they do Joseph Muscat himself. To be fair, it is not entirely a situation of his own mak- ing. Delia cannot be blamed for the fact that an entire de- mographic bracket of the PN's support base simply never ac- cepted him as party leader. But he has not exactly helped his own cause, either. His de- cision to launch a fund-rais- ing marathon, in conjunction with last Sunday's protest, is typical of the sort of misguid- ed leadership he has consist- ently displayed since winning that election two years ago. And again, this reminds me of the PN's false sense of secu- rity before the 2017 election. Like Busuttil before him, De- lia is simply out of touch with the mood and aspirations of the broader population… and the longer it takes him to see it, the harder it will be for the PN to regain its lost ground when the inevitable eventually happens. This, however, does not take into account that the PN is no longer the only Opposi- tion force in the country. It is now part of a broader Oppo- sition movement which also includes various (and diverse) civil society groupings: not to mention other political par- ties such as AD and PD. So we have to turn our at- tention towards the hub of the current 'civil society protest movement' that is behind all the street-level activism we have seen in recent weeks. For these are the people who loudly demand a cleaner polit- ical system… yet do not seem inclined to vote for any exist- ing political party that can de- liver it. And fair enough; that might be simply because there isn't any political party that can realistically win an election against Labour… even now, even with all the turmoil Labour is currently going through. But then again: they don't seem to have any visible in- tention of forming a political party of their own, either. Makes you wonder what these people really want, at the end of the day. So far, the only consistent demand they have made is the immediate resignation of Joseph Muscat: which, in itself, doesn't trans- late into any of the politi- cal reforms we all know this country needs. Meanwhile, they're unhappy with Adrian Delia… but have not lifted a finger to challenge him for the PN leadership. Even more bizarrely, they seem to expect both Muscat and Delia to simply cave into their demands of 'Barra, Bar- ra!' without even putting up a fight… like no politician has ever done, anywhere, in the entire history of world poli- tics. Even then, however, we are none the wiser as to what would happen if the protesters get both their wishes granted. Assuming Muscat and De- lia do both leave, sooner or later… what then? What rises to fill the leadership void… and what guarantee do we have that the new broom (if any) will indeed sweep cleaner than the old? These are questions the or- ganisers of all these protests will sooner or later have to face. Probably much sooner than later: for whoever wins the Labour leadership elec- tion will be as familiar with the polls (and their implica- tions) as I am. With a 15.5% advantage, the temptation to call an ear- ly election will be massive: for not only would victory be virtually guaranteed; but the new government would also be blessed by a renewed mandate… cutting it free of the shackles of all the prom- ises made by Joseph Muscat in 2017 (not to mention of Mus- cat himself). And yet, the disparate branches of today's Opposi- tion movement are anything but ready to face a new elec- tion. It is not just the PN that has failed to capitalise on the anger and disillusionment fuelling the current waves of protests; the organisers them- selves have so far failed to build anything tangible on the foundations of the movement they themselves started. To make matters worse, they seem to be replicating the same mistakes Simon Busut- til made before 2017: when the PN came to be associated with a destructive, divisive ap- proach to politics… hellbent only on dismantling the pre- sent system, while offering nothing new to replace it with. And that, ultimately, ex- plains why the electoral situa- tion has remained unchanged in spite of everything. Small wonder the electorate will continue to choose a politi- cal party that (whatever its other flaws) can at least of- fer national stability… over a shapeless, formless cacopho- ny of anger that can only ever project the opposite; and that, in any case, doesn't have any national policies of its own to speak of. Yet there is still hope that something more constructive might arise out of the mess the Opposition is in today; something that can offer a true alternative to the existing government… by telling us, among other things, what they plan to do about immigration, education, healthcare, pen- sions, taxation… you know, all the other issues that Opposi- tion movements are meant to discuss from time to time. But everything depends on whether these people ever re- alise that… well, that Father Christmas doesn't really exist, at the end of the day. Nobody else is ever going to step for- ward and magically provide all this 'good governance' they keep demanding; so if they re- ally want a new way of doing politics, they're just going to have to roll up their sleeves, and build a credible political platform themselves. And as you can well imagine: it's a lot harder than just pelt- ing a minister's car with a few rotten eggs…. Raphael Vassallo Easier to throw eggs than to run a country Makes you wonder what these people really want, at the end of the day. So far, the only consistent demand they have made is the immediate resignation of Joseph Muscat: which, in itself, doesn't translate into any of the political reforms we all know this country needs