Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1195815
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 22 DECEMBER 2019 MALTATODAY SURVEY 34.8%. The trust ratings of each of the PN individuals are higher than any of the trust scores De- lia has achieved over the past two years, which means the PN could be in a better position to start winning back lost ground with the likes of Metsola and Bernard Grech. Winning back PN voters A deeper analysis of the re- sults obtained by Metsola and Grech in their run-offs with Fearne and Abela, shows that they have the potential to re- tain a stronger proportion of the 2017 Nationalist vote. Metsola wins the trust of 81.7% of 2017 PN voters against Fearne and 85.7% against Ab- ela. These are figures that are substantially higher than what Delia has ever achieved so far. But the discrepancy between the results is indicative of Fearne's ability to win the trust of PN voters, apart from those of his own party. Bernard Grech wins the trust of 76.9% of PN voters against Fearne and 81.9% against Ab- ela. These figures are higher than what Delia has achieved so far but also show that Met- sola enjoys an edge over Grech. Neither Metsola nor Grech, however, have shown the ca- pability of attracting Labour voters. Methodology The survey was carried out between Monday 16 December 2019 and Friday 20 December 2019. 496 respondents opted to complete the survey. Strati- fied random sampling based on gender, region and age was used to replicate the Maltese demographics. The estimated margin of error is 5.5% for a confidence interval of 95%. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have a larger mar- gin of error. Fearne scores a consistent trust rating of more than 53% against all the PN names, confirming the high trust rating he achieved in the last survey held earlier this month against Adrian Delia – the PL hopeful scored over 60% THE Labour Party has shed support over the past two weeks with a MaltaToday survey suggesting a delayed impact of the political crisis that has rocked the country. The survey puts support for the PL at 41.5%, a drop of almost two points in just two weeks. The survey was conducted between Mon- day 16 December and Friday 20 December. The previous survey was conducted be- tween Monday 2 December and Friday 6 December, the week just after Joseph Mus- cat announced he will resign in January. In the first December sur- vey, the party was relatively unscathed by the scandalous revelations that emerged in court and which implicated the Prime Minister's former chief-of-staff in the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia. However, information emerging in court since then and the European Parlia- ment's massive thumbs down to Joseph Muscat over his refusal to leave immediately, appear to have contributed to the loss of support. Although the decrease is still within the margin of er- ror, a two-point drop in just a fortnight indicates that the impact of the crisis is only now starting to be felt. The PL's decline came at the expense of the Nationalist Party that continued its up- ward trajectory, gaining two points in two weeks. The PN's support now stands at 29.5%, its highest result since the beginning of May. The Opposition party has gained six points since Oc- tober, in what is its longest stretch of gains since October 2017. The gap between the parties is still a significant 12 points but the latest survey suggests that the PL has been dented by the crisis. To what extent this rebal- ancing of party strengths will continue has to be seen, also within the context of what could still emerge in court and the eventual outcome of the PL leadership race. PL loses ground in Northern Harbour The PL leads in Gozo, the Northern region, the South- ern Harbour and South-East, and the Western region. However, it is only in its tra- ditional southern and south eastern strongholds that the PL has managed an absolute majority. In Gozo and the Western re- gion, the gap between the two major parties is well within the margin of error. The PN leads in the North- ern Harbour region, where it posts its strongest result (39.2%). The PL maintains its su- premacy over the PN across all age groups. The party in government manages to re- tain 81.8% of those who voted for it in the last general elec- tion, while the PN has man- aged to retain 74.3% of those who voted for it. Labour sheds support as PN edges up The impact of the political crisis is only now being felt as the Labour Party loses two points in just a fortnight. KURT SANSONE analyses the latest MaltaToday survey results Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 41.5% 29.5% 11.6% 15.4% 81.8% 8.9% 7.1% 74.3% 12.1% 10.0% 41.5% 28.4% 10.8% 17.0% 41.5% 30.8% 12.5% 13.7% 36.6% 19.8% 16.0% 24.9% 38.4% 32.3% 15.0% 11.4% 47.5% 29.5% 17.9% 44.2% 38.6% 11.9% 58.5% 25.7% 10.1% 47.1% 31.2% 9.9% 11.7% 34.8% 29.7% 13.1% 22.4% 23.3% 28.9% 17.8% 21.5% 36.7% 32.6% 10.6% 13.2% 36.8% 30.9% 14.8% 16.2% 33.6% 39.2% 11.7% 12.9% 53.7% 16.6% 12.7% 17.0% 57.4% 17.8% 7.2% 17.6% 34.1% 32.2% 12.8% 17.7% PL PN AD PD Do not know No vote Voting intentions -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 30-Apr-17 07-May-17 14-May-17 21-May-17 28-May-17 1-June-17 10-Oct-17 19-Nov-17 4-Feb-18 4-Mar-18 6-May-18 3-June-18 5-Aug-18 2-Sept-18 7-Oct-18 11-Nov-18 23-Dec-18 03-Feb-19 02-Mar-19 07-Apr-19 5-May-19 3-Nov-19 8-Dec-19 22-Dec-19 PL PN AD PD Far-right (Patriots/IE) Don't know Not Voting Which party would you vote for if an election were held tomorrow? The PN's support now stands at 29.5%, its highest result since the beginning of May