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16 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 JANUARY 2020 INTERVIEW There has been a state of open civil war in Libya for the past four years during which the UN-recognised Government of National Accord has ceded 70% of Libyan territory to the advancing Libyan National Army, under General Khalifa Haftar. Yet it is only now – with Turkey's announcement of active involvement in the conflict – that the situation has escalated into an international emergency. Why has Turkey's intervention resulted in such a sudden spike in international interest In Libya? I think Turkey's policy shift on Libya may at this stage only be symbolic: being limited only to the sending of a small num- ber of advisors. But it confirms a trend that we have seen in Turkey over the past few years, away from multilateralism and diplomacy and more focused on its sovereign interests and military capacity. In this re- spect, its recent intervention in Syria already raised alarm bells, especially in Europe. After all, such interventions have quite often had dramatic geopolitical and humanitarian implications. When Turkey intervened in Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria, it divided the Kurd- ish zone into two, leading to another humanitarian emer- gency, as it allowed Syrian gov- ernmental forces to intervene with full force. We have always understood that Turkey has in- terests in Kurdish-controlled Syria; and Turkey tends to take military decisions on their own, against the advice of their NA- TO allies. So, the potential for another dramatic change in Libya is once again very high. For while the 30 or so advisors may be a symbolic gesture, Turkey might be providing other types of as- sistance, in the form of tech- nical equipment, drones, etc. Certainly, its involvement in Libya corresponds to other tac- tical shifts in Turkey's larger strategy in the region. There are, however, two sides to any conflict: while the GNA portrays Haftar as a war-monger who intends to precipitate a totalitarian regime in Libya, he himself projects himself as a unifying 'liberator'. Which of those views is more accurate? I wouldn't attach too much importance to what Libyan politicians say about each oth- er, at this stage. It is, after all, quite common for any govern- ment to describe its opponents as 'supporters of totalitarian- ism'… because totalitarianism, like terrorism, is a dirty word in politics. On his part, Haftar claims that he is the only one capable of unifying Libya, and bringing a strong, credible gov- ernment to the country. He is also an anti-Islamist… and this appears to be the one of the first major driving forces that led to him being supported, first by a number of powerful individuals in his stronghold of Benghazi, and later by various countries. Haftar can therefore claim that his intention is to save Lib- ya from falling under the con- trol of radical Islamist groups; and he argues that he is the only one who can do that… But the GNA doesn't seem to represent the forces of radical Islamism either… otherwise it would hardly be supported by the United Nations… Part of the trouble with the GNA is that it is unclear which of the political forces are actu- ally represented within it, or not. Certainly, it does not in- clude the radical Islamists of IS who were holding Sirte until 2016; but conservative Islamist groups are represented. And there are also different groups which lay claim to different forms of legitimacy: one that was elected in 2012 – a very long time ago – and another which was elected in 2014, when very few Libyans partici- pated in the vote. These two groups were challenging each other back then: proposing dif- ferent forms of governments, different types of Parliament… and often fighting each other, with their own militia groups. They are not the type of 'democrats' we might associate with in Europe. This is why the international recognition re- ceived in 2016 – when the Gov- ernment of National Accord was established – was so vital for them to become politically effective in Libya and a credible interlocutor in international af- fairs and, especially, oil exports. But as things stand in Libya today, it is not only a question of 'who the radical Islamists are'. That is a label one can use to obtain international support; and both the GNA and Gen- eral Haftar have done precisely that… gaining the support of different groups in the process. General Haftar used the 'fight against Islamists' label to gain the support of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emir- ates and, ultimately, Russia. GNA did it to gain American, British, French, UN and now Qatari support when it sup- ported the onslaught on Islamic State groups in Sirte. But the rise in international concern about Libya is not due only to the actions of other countries – in this case, Turkey – in the region. Recently, Gen- eral Haftar has launched a se- ries of military campaigns in a push to capture Tripoli: Sirte is part of that project, as the town is a stepping stone to the capital – strategically located halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi. The trouble is that, with Haf- tar in control of Sirte, it be- comes difficult for the UN-led peace initiative to continue as planned. The first part of the UN envoy Ghassan Salemé's three-point initiative, a cease- fire, is impossible to achieve as long as the military lines keep shifting. So, the fact that in this con- flict, military forces are still moving – and that foreign sup- port or involvement, includ- ing now Turkey's, can go on to make a decisive tactical differ- ence to the outcome – jeopard- ises the reconciliation process. It makes it difficult to reach compromises; even dirty ones, such as having warlords in gov- ernment. This is one of the unfortunate, often inevitable consequences of many post-conflict settle- ments. Warlords are already in government, and will continue to be in government; so real reconciliation – including tran- sitional justice and penalties for perpetrators of war crimes – is often set aside. This also means that human rights abuses will not be addressed. Over the past Turkey's recent intervention appears to have dramatically raised the stakes for war-torn Libya. JAMES SATER, lecturer at the University of Malta's International Relations department, considers the implications for the international peace process Libya: a conflict between hope Raphael Vassallo rvassallo@mediatoday.com.mt