Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1202670
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 22 JANUARY 2020 NEWS tougher after this brief honeymoon pe- riod. He is also raising expectations of full closure on both the Caruana Galizia assassination and Panamagate, which he may find hard to satisfy without fa- tally undermining his predecessor's legacy and place in history, something which may be unacceptable for Muscat loyalists. So far Abela has steered between tak- ing strong steps which suggest disconti- nuity, while paying homage to his pre- decessor. But will he be able to rise to the occasion if investigations catch up with Muscat, or will he do everything to ensure that he will never have to face that choice? Some may even suspect that Abela is skilfully taking decisions now to disarm critics, only to save the skin of his pre- decessor when push comes to shove. For if the police under Abela does not proceed with full investigations on Keith Schembri's role in the assassi- nation of Caruana Galizia, he may still face a backlash. Moreover any investi- gation on Schembri will inevitably raise questions on Muscat. For the public still deserves answers on his own prox- imity to both Schembri and Fenech. Abela will also face calls for investi- gations on the scandals which rocked the Maltese government, including 17 Black, the Vitals scandals and deals involving Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi. Failure to act on any of these fronts may well weaken Abela's creden- tials as a reformer and leave room for the opposition to counter attack. One problem for Abela is that he risks being bogged down in the swamp. Moreover Abela is not showing great willingness to address the structural roots of corruption through constitu- tional reform, more checks and balanc- es and stricter rules on the financing of political parties, including their TV sta- tions. The lack of conviction he showed on such issues during the leadership campaign may well return to haunt him. How the PN risks losing its battle-cry But if Abela does proceed along the slippery road to Labour's moral re- demption, the PN may find itself losing its main battle-cry: that of upholding better standards of governance than La- bour. Surely championing good governance was not enough for the party to narrow Labour's lead in 2017 but it did give the PN a sense of purpose. The election of Adrian Delia as PN leader, despite alle- gations of money laundering by Carua- na Galizia, further weakened the party's credentials on this issue. Yet Muscat's race to the bottom still gave the PN even with Delia as lead- er, a sense of raison d'être. Ironically faced with a relatively clean Abela, De- lia may be in further trouble, with La- bour pouncing on the allegations made by Caruana Galizia against him. This may well increase pressure in the PN to replace their leader with someone who carries less baggage. Moreover, if Abela does to some extent deliver on the good governance front, what battle-cries will the Opposition use to confront him? Much depends on how Abela will position himself on oth- er social and economic issues. Continuity with Muscat-onomics? Abela has already hinted at continuity with Muscat's economic policies which has seen the party move towards the centre, thus occupying ideological ter- ritory stretching from the neoliberal right-wing to the social democratic left which once belonged to the PN. Abela may even broaden the party's appeal by addressing concerns on wid- ening social inequalities and environ- mental degradation, even if a 'balance' between growth and sustainability may remain elusive as pressures to keep the economic momentum of the Muscat years grows. For Abela will be under intense pres- sure to keep the machine running at full speed; this may make him wary of changing direction. After all, it is only thanks to the fast rate of growth that the Muscat government has been able to re- duce fiscal pressures while at the same time expanding welfare. The problem is that good governance is also intimately tied to the economic model: economies on steroids are often fertile ground for corruption. If the economy slows down Abela may even be tempted to take a more hawkish line on migration at least on a symbol- ic level, to take away steam from a far right which thrives on the social frac- tures created by neoliberal economics. Abela may even be more cautious than Muscat on new civil liberties which may alienate social conservatives from his party. In the end the PN may well end up facing a party which is remarkably similar to its former self in the 1990s, but this time led by the son of a Labour grandee made President by Lawrence Gonzi. In this way the PN may well be faced by a third devastating exodus of switch- ers who may leave it to find a new home in Abela's Labour Party. Is Abela cheating the 10-year cycle? In these circumstances, the PN has to choose between two options: either shift to the right and confront Abela from a more radical, anti-immigrant, conservative and possibly pro-business position; or confront Labour from the centre by slowly building an inclusive team with a wide appeal stretching from the centre-right to the centre-left, to eventually earn the trust of the elec- torate as Labour runs out of steam, es- pecially if the economy starts showing signs of fatigue. But the greatest problem for the PN is that by electing Abela, Labour may well have found a way to cheat itself out of the 10-year cycle rule, which has seen most Maltese governments diminished or voted out of office after 10 years in power. The more Abela distinguishes himself from Muscat, the greater the prospect that voters start considering his gov- ernment a brand new one, thus possibly extending further its term in office fur- ther in to the future. In electoral terms the question is: will voters see Abela as a continuation of Muscat's term, or will they see Abela's election to the helm as a new beginning? Much depends on Abela's ability to set himself apart from Joseph Muscat. The dismal track record of his predecessor on governance issues has provided Robert Abela with an opportunity to shine