Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1205478
10 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 29 JANUARY 2020 OPINION DID you hear that noise? No, I have no idea what caused it ei- ther… but it sure sounded a lot like the first rumblings of dissent within the Labour Party, after its election of a new leader last month. Mind you: it could also have been Robert Abela breaking the sound barrier, with what must go down as the single fastest U-turn in Malta's entire political history. Less than 24 hours after nominating Konrad Mizzi to head a delegation to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (of all bloody things), government found itself having to sheepish- ly withdraw the nomination, after what should have really been a very predictable public outcry. In so doing, Robert Abela also handed the Parliamentary Op- position a minor (and some- what rare) victory: for the decision was reversed almost immediately after Nationalist MPs called for a division in the House: imparting the im- pression that – for once – the Opposition had succeeded in dictating the government's agenda. In all the years I've been fol- lowing local politics, I don't think I have ever seen a gov- ernment conceding defeat so suddenly and so emphatically (on any issue, ever). And I have to admit it perplexes me slight- ly: for the simple reason that Robert Abela – no matter how green or inexperienced - must surely have been aware that his decision to nominate Miz- zi would precipitate precisely that sort of backlash. This is, after all, the same Konrad Mizzi outed by the Panama Papers leak in 2016: and who, alongside Keith Schembri (and also Joseph Muscat, who defended both) has been the primary focus of all the local and foreign oppro- brium heaped onto our country for the past three years. So to even consider him for a delega- tion to an OSCE meeting, is to enthusiastically wave a red rag in front of a snorting bull. To my mind, then, it is utterly inconceivable that Robert Abe- la would have taken a decision of that magnitude without fore- seeing at least a little public re- sistance. He must have known full well that the Opposition would vociferously object; and that the NGOs behind all the recent protests would imme- diately claim that 'nothing had changed at all' (despite early indications of promise). I can only conclude, then, that Abela chose Mizzi deliberately to provoke that very reaction. But this merely raises the ques- tion of why he would go on to rescind the same decision so quickly. Was that, too, part of some grand, elaborate political strategy that we're all too stu- pid to fully understand? Or was it a change of plan forced up- on Robert Abela by unforeseen circumstances… and if so: what circumstances, exactly? I'm not too sure myself; but from where I'm sitting, the conundrum seems entirely consistent with all the other, earlier U-turns Robert Abela has already performed since becoming prime minister three weeks ago: the way he first promised 'continuity' from the Muscat administration… only to reshuffle his Cabinet beyond recognition, and then terminate pretty much all the controversial public positions appointed by is predecessor (even though he had previous- ly suggested he would retain at least a few). There has, in fact, been pre- cious little sign of the 'continu- ity' promised by Robert Abela in the leadership campaign… and this must have placed the new prime minister in a slight- ly awkward position, among those Labour Party delegates who had elected him specifi- cally on that promise. I might, of course, be going out on a limb here: but my own reading of Mizzi's appointment is that it was a belated sop to this particular faction within the party; the militant diehards who still view Konrad Mizzi as a major asset to both party and country (all the more so for having 'survived' so many attacks by Opposition forc- es)… and who, in any case, had cheered wildly at the sight of Abela embracing the former tourism minister at his inaugu- ration ceremony last month. From this perspective, the move can even be seen as a cunning political strategy: be- cause up to a point, Robert Ab- ela still needs to put up a fight for the benefit of his own party faithful. As we all know from past po- litical experience (Konrad Miz- zi is himself a very good exam- ple of this), nothing boosts a politician's grassroots popular- ity more than a good old-fash- ioned punch up with the Oppo- sition. This is in fact how Malta's inherently tribalist political mindset has always worked: antagonism between parties is generally viewed as a good thing, because it can be used to instantly galvanize support from within. And Abela needs to shore up support at the moment: if nothing else, for the benefit of those among his own support- ers who think he may be going too far in his efforts to mollify detractors. There is, in brief, a lot to be gained by Abela in picking a fight with the Nationalist Party (and civil society) at this par- ticular juncture in time. In fact, it wouldn't at all surprise me if the whole idea behind Mizzi's nomination was precisely to in- stigate further protests against his own government: thus giv- ing Abela a chance to demon- strate his own prowess on the political battlefield, to the ec- static applause of his home crowd. If my theory is correct, howev- er… it would mean that 'some- thing' forced Abela to back out of a fight he fully intended to start. And for obvious reasons, that 'something' cannot have come from either the National- ist Party or its related pressure groups. Realistically speaking, it can only have come from 'the in- side'… which in turn explains why the rumblings we heard this week sounded so much like the beginnings of an internal divide within the Labour Party: a schism, between those who still secretly support Joseph Muscat (and, by extension, Konrad Mizzi); and those who hold the preceding adminis- tration directly responsible for the embarrassing situation the Labour government has been reduced to... and who fully ex- pect Abela to take whatever ac- tion is necessary to regain their trust. There is already evidence of the latter's existence (mostly in the form of disappointed or outraged reactions on social media, coming from people known to be aligned with La- bour)… but what we don't real- ly know is the extent to which their sentiments are shared among the wider Labour elec- torate. I'm guessing that Robert Ab- ela didn't know that detail ei- ther (and it is very obviously in his own interest to find out, as quickly as possible). This might explain why he might also have been tempted to 'test the wa- ters'. In fact, his otherwise bizarre decision to nominate Konrad Mizzi only makes sense when viewed as a stratagem to gauge the precise mood among Labour's own party rank and file. And who knows? Had the nomination gone down smoothly with PL supporters… it may even have been a prel- ude to a more permanent form of 'rehabilitation' for the belea- guered Mizzi in future. Evidently, however, it didn't go down well at all. As we all saw, Abela was forced to pub- licly backtrack within hours… and not by the Opposition, or by the threat of further protests in the streets. No, it would ap- pear that Abela tried to test the precise extent of his own authority as both prime min- ister and party leader… and got slightly more than he bar- gained for by way of an answer. Either way, the faux pas leaves the prime minister in the un- enviable position of having to somehow plaster over the cracks now opening up within his own support-base. And if the situation sounds familiar, it's because this has all hap- pened before. Almost exactly the same pro- cess has already unfolded twice within the Nationalist Party: first when Gonzi took over from Eddie Fenech Adami in 2004, and later – even more emphatically – when Adrian Delia became party leader in 2017. Like both those party leaders, Robert Abela will also soon dis- cover (if he hasn't already) that there are limits to how long the opposing forces of 'change' and 'continuity' can be forced to co-exist… before the party is eventually torn apart in oppo- site directions. To be fair, he still has plenty of time to experiment… and who knows? Maybe eventually even get the balance right. For the moment, however, the ear- ly days of Robert Abela's reign seem to indicate that he is still entirely at the mercy of inter- necine forces – torn between the party-political need to fire up his own audience, and the over-arching national impera- tive to 'clean up the mess' left by his immediate predecessor – and not yet entirely sure of how to handle the two-headed monster he has inherited. One thing, however, is cer- tain: 'continuity' and 'change' cannot realistically co-exist for very long. Sooner or later… and my guess is sooner… Robert Abela is going have to decide, once and for all, which of those directions he really intends to take. Raphael Vassallo 'Continuity' and 'change' can't both happen at the same time…