Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1206972
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 FEBRUARY 2020 MALTATODAY SURVEY KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party has woken up from its slumber with a MaltaToday survey putting its support at 49.2%. The result signals an almost eight- point jump since the last survey in December, reversing the PL's slow decline since October. This is the first survey carried out by MaltaTo- day since Robert Abela became Labour leader and prime minister. The PL's upward move- ment comes at the ex- pense of the Nationalist Party that experienced a decline of almost six points since December. The PN registered 23.8%, down from 29.5% at the end of last year. The result is a reversal of for- tunes for the Opposition that had seen its support grow gradually since October. The PL trumps the PN across all age groups, all regions and among men and women. Breaking down the results by politi- cal allegiance on the basis of how peo- ple voted in the last general election, the figures show the PL retaining 90% of the vote and the PN holding on to 60% of its 2017 vote. Significantly, 4.7% of those who vot- ed PN in 2017, say they will now vote Labour, while 1% of PL voters say they will now shift to the PN. The PN appears to be struck by leth- argy with 22.9% of those who voted for it saying they are uncertain who to vote for if an election is held tomor- row, and 9.3% will not vote. Only 0.6% of PL voters are uncertain and 2% say they will not vote. The PL enjoys the support of 45.2% of those aged between 18 and 35, against the PN's 12.9%. The PN's best show- ing is among pensioners where it registers 33.9% but still trails the PL, which scores 52.7%. On a regional basis, the PL's best showing is in the South-Eastern region with 66.3%, fol- lowed by the Southern Harbour region with 62%. Its worst showing is in Gozo with 32.7%, although it still comes in front of the PN, which scores 26.1%. Gozo has the largest cohort of voters who are uncertain (32.5%). The PN's best showing is in the Northern Harbour re- gion with 29.9%, fol- lowed by the Western region with 26.5%. Labour bounces back from year-end doldrums Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 53.5% 10.3% 24.6% 11.6% 61.4% 19.4% 14.1% 76.2% 14.8% 69.8% 12.2% 9.9% 8.1% 51.3% 16.7% 21.3% 10.7% Which political party would you vote for if a general election were to be held tomorrow? ALL PL PN M F 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 49.2% 23.8% 17.2% 8.1% 90.0% 7.0% 60.0% 22.9% 9.3% 48.4% 22.0% 16.6% 10.4% 50.2% 25.7% 17.7% 45.2% 12.9% 24.5% 16.1% 44.0% 23.1% 19.5% 11.7% 56.1% 28.8% 11.2% 52.7% 33.9% 11.2% 68.2% 26.6% 55.8% 26.5% 9.1% 7.4% 46.7% 24.9% 16.9% 10.9% 30.4% 16.5% 38.7% 9.8% 32.7% 26.0% 32.5% 8.8% 37.5% 21.9% 29.1% 11.5% 47.0% 29.9% 13.4% 7.1% 66.3% 14.5% 12.8% 62.0% 18.6% 12.4% 7.0% 41.3% 26.5% 15.7% 12.5% PL PN AD PD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 30-Apr-17 07-May-17 14-May-17 21-May-17 28-May-17 1-June-17 10-Oct-17 19-Nov-17 4-Feb-18 4-Mar-18 6-May-18 3-June-18 5-Aug-18 2-Sept-18 7-Oct-18 11-Nov-18 23-Dec-18 03-Feb-19 02-Mar-19 07-Apr-19 5-May-19 3-Nov-19 2-Feb-20 PL PN AD PD Far-right (Patriots/IE) Don't know Not Voting ADRIAN Delia had pinned his hopes of revival on a change in leader in the Labour Party but survey results suggest the strat- egy has backfired. The Nationalist Party leader has always trailed miserably in trust ratings when compared to his previous rival, Joseph Muscat. The former Labour leader was considered unas- sailable. Delia's closest aides believed that when Mus- cat moved out of the picture, a modicum of competitiveness would return to the political race. But MaltaToday's trust barometer released today, the first since Rob- ert Abela became prime minister, puts paid to the PN's hopes of re- covery on the back of Muscat's exit. Delia's trust rating has now p l u m - meted to its lowest in two y e a r s and the PN has lost the ground it gained over the past three months. The numbers also suggest the Nation- alist electorate is in disarray with Abela making significant inroads among those who voted PN in the last gen- eral election. A look at the survey numbers shows that Delia could on- ly muster the trust of 34% of those who voted PN in 2017. This contrasts with Abela's showing among Labour vot- ers, where the Prime Minister secures the support of 95.5%. Delia's poor showing among PN voters is nothing new – he has registered similar show- ings over the past two years. But what should be a worry- ing factor for him and the PN is Abela's ability to appeal to Nationalist voters. Abela's trust rating among those who voted PN in 2017 stands at 22.5%, which is an impressive result that not even Muscat managed to achieve. This puts Abela 10 points shy of the PN leader among Nationalist voters, a situation that none of Delia's aides were foreseeing. The rest of PN voters were either uncertain who to trust (32.6%), or trusted none of the two main leaders (10.9%). The change in PL leader and its impact on the party and the electorate will have to be gauged over a period of months but the first results do not bode well for the PN and its leader. A strategy in disarray: the trust figures that spell bad news for the Delia and the PN The PN has experienced a decline of almost six points since December KURT SANSONE