Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1211430
12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 FEBRUARY 2020 OPINION ALONG with Ireland, British co- lonial administrators bestowed on Malta a 'proportional rep- resentation' (PR) voting system with a single transferable vote (STV). This was meant to dispel strong, single-party rule and in- stead oblige coalition (multi-par- ty) governments. This has proved true in Ireland, including in this week's election, where the party with most votes did so with less than 23% of electoral support. But it has not been the case in Malta. Since 1966, the Malta La- bour Party (MLP, now Partit La- burista, PL) and the Partit Naz- zjonalista (PN) have been taking turns at running the country and with no need for coalition gov- ernments. Five such alternations have taken place so far since in- dependence: 1971, 1987, 1996, 1998 and 2013. Over these 54 years, observers have watched with baited breath as one party after another rose up and tried to challenge this duopoly. MLP/PL and PN party stalwarts looked nervously over their shoulders at the likely rise of parties that might seriously threaten and outflank them from the ideological right (Moviment Patrijotti Maltin), the left (Partit Komunista Malti) or even from the centre (Partit Demokratiku). But the aspirational goals of 'the third party' that would break the PL-PN stranglehold have been dashed time and time again. Yes, Alternattiva Demokratika sol- diers on, and one cannot help but acknowledge the role played by this party in helping craft the national policy agenda: from di- vorce and environmental protec- tion to civil unions and animal rights. But: it is nowhere close to being an alternative government. The MaltaToday poll of January 2020 was no 'black swan' event. Rather, it corroborates and mag- nifies what has been happening since March 2013, with the PL consistently securing 55-60% voter support in a suite of elec- toral contests (local, national and European): a feat unheard of, and even deemed impossible, in PR- STV democracies. The one and only time in Maltese history that such a situation had prevailed was in the October 1947 elec- tion, where the MLP secured 60% of the vote and the PN a miserly 18%. Note that the PN vote here, its lowest ever recorded over 100 years, was in the wake of the Sec- ond World War and that party leadership's embarrassing asso- ciations with Italy and fascism at that time. Polls are what they are. Some respondents will not reply, or will answer strategically. The 655 respondents to the MaltaToday poll may be giving Prime Minis- ter Abela, still in his honeymoon period, the benefit of the doubt on many issues. And there is a +/- 5% margin of error (as the poll acknowledges). Yet, for a party in government for seven years, rattled of late by allegations and revelations of shady deals and corrupt prac- tices, the PL's stratospheric poll ratings are preposterous. The dis- mal state of the Opposition hints at the absence of an alternative government. Even poll respond- ents who acknowledge having voted PN in the last (2017) elec- tion have registered support for Abela, perhaps out of resignation and exasperation as much as wil- ful choice. PM Joseph Muscat's exit strat- egy has paid off handsomely: he did not breathe new life and ener- gy into a (somewhat vindicated) PN. Instead, it seems that Muscat drew the poison out of the PL, taking it with him into the political sunset; while leav- ing the PL looking cleansed, fresh and well-placed for a third successive national election success, at an election to be called within two years and a bit (at most: some suggest soon- er than that). Prime Minister Abela com- pleted the sanitisation with his thorough over- haul of Cabinet. Therefore, the signs suggest that Malta is heading towards a one-par- ty democracy. A consist- ent, seven-year pattern is no statistical fluke. An election called now may grant the PL an unprecedented super-solid major- ity in parliament, possibly within the possibility of a two-thirds ma- jority that would offer it the oppor- tunity to amend the constitution without the need to reach out to the Opposition benches. Would the Maltese electorate balk at such a prospect? The scenarios of a single-party democracy constitute uncharted territory for Malta. The rule of law, the role of inde- pendent media, the role and clout of the Head of State, the ability to speak truth to power, cosy rela- tionships between political and economic elites, and oversight by European institutions, trade unions and civil society, come up for discussion. Godfrey Baldacchino The PL-PN duopoly is finally fraying. And in ways least expected Godfrey Baldacchino is Professor of Sociology at the University of Malta For a party in government for seven years, rattled of late by allegations and revelations of shady deals and corrupt practices, the PL's stratospheric poll ratings are preposterous The scenarios of a single-party democracy constitute uncharted territory for Malta, with Joseph Muscat (below) having apparently drawn out the poison from Labour by his exit