Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1211430
12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 FEBRUARY 2020 JAMES DEBONO ON Tuesday night, the self-declared democratic socialist Bernie Sanders, campaigning for a national health care system, won the New Hampshire pri- mary, leading the more moderate Mal- tese-American Pete Buttigieg by less than two percentage points. Surpris- ingly Amy Klobuchar, another moder- ate, finished third with more than twice the support of former Vice President Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Despite the surge by Buttigieg and Klobuchar in the first two primaries, an average of all national polls by Real Clear Politics still puts Bernie Sanders four points ahead of Joe Biden, with bil- lionaire and former New York mayor Bloomberg in third place despite not having contested the first two prima- ries. There are now two most probable scenarios for the Democrat race for presidential nominee: the respectable Five Thirty Eight pollster Nate Silver says we will see either a Bernie Sand- ers victory, or a contested convention where no candidate emerges with a clear majority among pledged dele- gates, a chance that is now "high and increasing." One former volunteer of the Sanders campaign in 2016 and the Buttigieg run for the 2016 DNC chair, lawyer Brendan Zerafa, thinks the early rac- es have already established a pattern. "After Iowa and New Hampshire, two front-runners emerged ahead of the crowd: Sanders and Buttigieg. Biden and Warren have fallen behind, and this is manifested in the latest polls which are now showing Sanders lead- ing nationally." Sanders has, so far, won the popular vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire but Buttigieg has performed better than expected in most polls, emerging as the front-runner in a crowded field of moderates who cast doubt on Sand- ers's electability. The states of Iowa and New Hamp- shire may be insignificant in terms of delegate counts, but candidates who perform well in these states benefit from the name recognition and famil- iarity crucial in future contests. This may explain why Buttigieg was so keen to declare victory in Iowa before the votes were even counted. "The early states seem to have burst Biden's claim that he is best suited to beat Trump. Buttigieg and even Klobu- char are now deemed more electable than all others in the race," says inter- national relations expert Prof. Carmen Sammut. "Klobuchar's rise probably cost Butt- igieg a clear popular victory in New Hampshire and she might eventually sweep Warren off the race," she says, although Sanders may also may gains if Warren – who competes with Sanders for the progressive and left-wing vote – drops out before Super Tuesday, the day when all other states vote. The decisive black and Latino vote Biden's and Sanders's more eth- nically diverse support may be an asset in the next months. Sanders can rely on a grass- roots movement which attracts younger voters from different backgrounds, united by strong convictions on issues like univer- sal healthcare, which contrasts with PETE BUTTIGIEG BERNIE SANDERS ELIZABETH WARREN Mayor, South Bend (IN), military veteran, 38 Senator Vermont, 78 Senator MA, former Harvard professor, 70 NEWS USA Who gets to fight Trump for the White House? more policy 'lite' approaches like Buttigieg's. The movement gives Sanders the ability to mobilise crowds. Sanders is also supported by mem- bers of Congress of minority ori- gins Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Somali-born Ilhan Omar. In Iowa, Sanders overwhelmingly won over Latinos with over 60% of the few majority-Latino caucus sites. Sand- ers has also managed to unite the party's progressive wing by eclips- ing Warren, whereas the more "es- tablishment friendly" field remains crowded and divided, with no sin- gle candidate emerging as the 'an- ti-Bernie'. The next contest will be the Nevada caucuses on 22 February, followed a week later by South Carolina. Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar face the uphill battle of winning over black and Latino voters in a short amount of time. So far neither has made much progress with non-white vot- ers or lower-income voters. Sammut notes that Nevada and South Carolina have diverse con- stituencies, namely Latinos, Black and Asian. "Police violence in South Bend, under Pete Buttigieg's watch, implied that persuading black voters was a veritable struggle," she says of criticism at Buttigieg's mayorship and the controversial removal of a black sheriff. But she points out a recent poll showing only 13% of black voters had an unfa- vourable opinion of him after making ground by presenting the Douglass Plan, which is aimed at em- powering black Americans. Zerafa recalls that back in 2016 it was Sanders who had a Carmen Sammut: "Buttigieg's values are a sharp contrast with Trumpism, who is currently reigning supreme over the Republican camp" Sanders 23.6% Biden 19.2% Bloomberg 14.2% Warren 12.4% Buttigieg 10.6% Klobuchar 4.6% RCP average of national polls