Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1212321
20.02.2020 10 ANALYSIS Why Bernie Sanders is the current favourite THE Democratic presidential race is about to enter hyper speed -- and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is cur- rently in the driver's seat. Much attention has been paid to former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's recent surge, but Sand- ers has built out a clear national lead and is the favorite ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 3. Sanders is leading in the vast majori- ty of national polls right now. A Wash- ington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday morning found him at 32%, his best national poll of the cam- paign that meets CNN's standards so far and giving him a 16-point edge over former Vice President Joe Biden, who was in second place. Sanders also led the field at 27% in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Tuesday evening. He hit 31% in an NPR/PBS News- Hour/Marist College poll released earlier on Tuesday, 12 points ahead of Bloomberg. Sanders is up to about 27% in the average poll, which is his high water mark in the average since Biden de- clared his candidacy last year. Sanders looks strong ahead of the Nevada caucuses on Saturday. The polling widely differs from pollster to pollster, but Sanders holds an advan- tage in the average poll. Sanders has about a three in five chance of win- ning based on the predictiveness of Nevada polling in past years. All other candidates have less than a one in five shot, and all but Biden have a one in 10 shot or less. A win in Nevada would mean that Sanders basically tied or won every single primary so far. Remember, no candidate has won ei- ther party's nomination without com- ing in first or second in New Hamp- shire in the modern primary era. Now, there is an argument to be made that Sanders may have a ceiling of support nationally. Although he was up to 31% in the Marist poll, his 25% in the average polls looks an awful bit like the 26% he earned in Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. Late deciders in both of those con- tests went overwhelmingly for the other candidates suggesting undecid- ed voters may flow against Sanders nationally. Still, Sanders is very well liked nation- wide. His favorable rating among po- tential Democratic primary voters was 76% in a Quinnipiac University poll taken after Iowa voted, and Sanders was the second choice of 11% of voters. His combined first and second choice support was higher than it was for any other candidate in the poll. In other words, there is clearly the opportunity for Sanders to continue to gain ground. But even if Sanders doesn't pick up any additional support, it's important to note that he is by far in the best po- sition to pick up delegates in the up- coming contests. Sanders is hitting 15% of the vote in most state polls. By reaching 15%, he's putting himself in a position to pick up delegates in most states. No other candidate can say that as confidently at this point. Sanders is benefiting from the fact that his coalition is racially diverse. Across an average of recent national polls, he's polling at 20% or greater among African American, Hispanic and white voters. Aside from perhaps Florida (with its very old voter base), it's difficult to find a state where Sanders isn't at least somewhat competitive. All of this means that Sanders has by far the best chance of any individual candidate of winning a plurality of delegates overall. Unless someone else emerges from the pack (say Bloomberg), the other Democrats best shot to stop Sanders may be a contested convention (i.e. no one reaching 50% of the delegates). And a scenario in which Sanders wins the most delegates but loses at the convention could tear the Demo- cratic Party apart. 'I do not believe in online bullying. End of discussion' Bernie Sanders on Tuesday night sought to fully divorce himself from supporters who have harassed others online and questioned whether any- one who believes in his agenda would attack a union leader. Top officials at the Culinary Union in Nevada accused Sanders support- ers of swarming them online after the union distributed fliers that said Sanders would "end" their health care. Sanders at a CNN town hall ques- tioned whether some of the social me- dia comments cited by critics were, in fact, written by his supporters. "The idea that anybody who works with me would make a vicious attack against a union leader just because we disagree on an issue is incompre- hensible to me," Sanders said. "And you know what, I'm just not sure that that's true." He also pointed out that members of his own staff had been the targets of online harassment. "Talk to the people in my campaign, often the African American wom- en in this campaign, talk to my wife, about the kind of ugly attacks that have come in to us," he said. On the broader issue, Sanders was -- in his final point on the question -- unequivocal. "I do not believe in online bullying," he said. "End of discussion." Sanders also had a message for his supporters. "Anybody out there who claims to be a Bernie Sanders supporter: we work with the unions. This is a union-led campaign. We believe in unions. We will never attack union leadership and we will not attack people on a personal basis," he said. Culinary Union spokeswoman Beth- any Khan told CNN the organization took hits last week on Twitter for the "Medicare for All" position, with Bernie Sanders