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8 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 25 MARCH 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS Opposition in time of corona: Where is the gravitas? JAMES DEBONO THE last week has seen the Nationalist Party shifting from a demand for a total immediate lockdown to calls on govern- ment to subsidise 50% of wages of busi- nesses hit by the crisis. Nationalist Party leader Adrian Delia had spent the first weeks of the crisis arguing for a full lock- down, hinting that the government was prioritising the economy over health. But when faced with the advice of medical ex- perts that such a total lockdown would be premature and could well be counterpro- ductive, Delia backed down. The Opposition has now rightly decided to respect evidence-based expert opinion, acknowledging the respect enjoyed by public health superintendent Charmaine Gauci and the team of experts calling the shots on health policies. Instead the Opposition has shifted its focus to the economic impact, arguing for a more substantial stimulus package than that offered so far by the government. Ironically, had the country heeded the advice of the Opposition for an immedi- ate lockdown, the economic cost could have been much greater. On the other hand, the gradual approach of the gov- ernment has now led the country nearer to a complete lockdown, especially after the closure of business providing non-es- sential services; which now means that more businesses and workers are biting the bullet. But except for some hiccups, the gov- ernment's approach to the crisis from a health aspect has been largely well re- ceived by the public. Yet discontent over the economic repercussions is growing. The rise of Claudio Grech With its social policy spokesperson Claudio Grech, the Opposition has found someone who can articulate its argu- ments with greater gravitas than its em- battled leader. Despite his social conserv- atism and baggage, Grech is one of the few MPs who comes across as someone who can be trusted with the task of gov- erning the country. The Opposition's current stance also is in synch with the mood of many small and medium-sized businesses who feel that the government's response so far has been too cautious and has left many in the cold. In the first package, described as a mini-budget, the government dedicated half of the aid package to tax deferrals and loan guarantees and "only" dedicated €200 million to direct aid to businesses. The Opposition's central argument is that government aid is to support the em- ployers safeguard their employees' jobs and is based on the premise that business- es can sustain a zero-income scenario for more than a few weeks. The PN's anchor proposal to safeguard employment is for the government to fund 50% of the salaries for employees the private sector commits to retain through this crisis, even if on reduced basis. "The underlying remise is to ensure that the employers and the employees stick to- gether in their enterprise for the tempo- rary period," Claudio Grech said. While the government has focused on offering a basic income of €800 to laid-off workers, the Opposition is focusing on helping businesses retain workers during the crisis. The 50% would also be capped to an amount which is agreed with the constituted bodies to ensure that the support granted is focused on middle- to low-income earners. When to spend the war chest One major problem not accounted for by the Opposition is the duration of the crisis. In short the government can't af- ford to use its financial resources all in one go, as this would risk leaving it with no resources later on in the course of the pandemic which may drag on for months. As Prime Minister Robert Abela argued: "We cannot use all our ammunition in the first week. We have reserves – a war chest, so to speak – but we can't use it all in week one and end up out of breath in the second week. At the same time, how- ever, we have to ensure businesses don't fail and workers' jobs are not lost." In this way Abela has clearly hinted at a stage-by-stage approach to the crisis, similar to that adopted with regards to the health aspect, with the government stepping up economic assistance as the country moves from one stage of the health emergency to another. Still even if this were the case, the government seems to have underestimated the impact of the current phase of the crisis. Another weakness of the Opposition's proposal is not just the failure to cost it, but that of not anchoring it in a wider set of priorities. In fact, one would have expected the Opposition to call on the government to present its mini budget in parliament in a similar format to the way the annual budget is presented, rather than in a press conference. This would have been more conducive to an informed debate. While the government's major short- coming seems to be that of excessive fis- cal conservatism, and a reluctance to over spend even in desperate times which may reflect a fear of plunging back the country to the ravages of deficits, subsidizing half the wages in the private sector may well impact on other expenditures like health, education and social benefits which have to be ring-fenced and even increased in a time of crisis. The Opposition's proposal also raises practical question like: which businesses will be eligible for aid and how can the government assess the level of exposure of each business? While it is clear to assess the impact on businesses which have had to close down, it not easy to determine the impact on others who have had their revenues de- cline. It is also unclear whether part-tim- ers and workers on zero-hour contracts will have their wages subsidised. Another problem is that while the Op- position is very keen on riding the wave of discontentment in the business world, it still struggles to express the concerns of those who are most vulnerable and left behind including part timers and those who had their contract hours drastically reduced. For this category the most practical solution would be that of extending the €800 benefit scheme to include precari- ous workers. A problem of gravitas Even if the PN manages to present a co- herent narrative, it still lacks the gravitas to present itself as an alternative govern- ment. While the Opposition is right in de- manding a place on the decision-making table to achieve a national consensus in a time of crisis, it also has to contribute to such a consensus by listening to experts and bringing to the table sensible solu- tions. Moreover, the decision-making table should also be extended beyond the tradi- tional stakeholders to ensure representa- tion of the most vulnerable categories, including tenants, third country nationals and precarious workers. While the Opposition is standing up for legitimate concerns of business, the country also needs to hear the voices of categories which lack any representation. Claudio Grech Adrian Delia