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7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 20 MAY 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS Abela's greatest gamble While Abela still manages to inspire a degree of confi- dence, in the past days he has also shown signs of being gaffe- prone. His dismissive tone on the risk of a second wave by saying that the only waves are those in the sea, generated a Trumpian frisson in his tone. Indeed it was a declaration that goes against scientific evidence and the views of his own deputy PM who repeatedly hinted that more restrictive measures may be re-introduced in autumn if Malta is hit by a second wave. Mixed messages His optimism may have also sent a mixed message to people who may have felt more em- powered to go out and party upon hearing Abela's optimis- tic and 'celebratory' speeches. This may not have been Abe- la's intention but he may have showed a lack of awareness on the effect of his words on the population. While experts warn of the risk of COVID-19 waiting for the first opportu- nity to strike again, Abela's speeches suggest that the war has already been won. His populist side raised its head in the way he scored po- litical points by stirring a na- tionalist passion in his stand- off with the EU over migration, in which migrants are stranded on a Captain Morgan boat, as pawns in a game played most- ly to a local audience. On this Abela offered a distraction to those suffering from hard- ship… even though he made it a point to repeatedly thank third-country nationals for joining the collective national effort, perhaps a strategic af- ter-thought. The power of hope Like Joseph Muscat before him, Abela knows that peo- ple prefer uplifting politicians to doomsday prophets. Surely enough his optimistic message resonates among various sec- tors in society, including busi- nesses who want to return to making money, but also among deprived segments of the pop- ulation who suffer isolation more than those who at least can enjoy the comforts of an affluent life, which make lock- down bearable for the middle class. Still in the past days, he may have raised expectations one notch more than necessary at the risk of undoing weeks of sacrifices and hard work. De- spite his denials of being forced to choose between health and the economy, he may well be under intense pressure to avoid an economic collapse, which would rip to shreds his prede- cessor's legacy, which comes with obligations to business lobbies. Abela himself is aware that his legacy will be undone if the virus raises its head again. That is why despite the impression he gives in his speeches, so far he remains on the same boat of Charmaine Gauci and Chris Fearne, staggering the easing of measures in a way which sug- gests that the government is still testing the ground and is not bent on rushing towards a quick return to normality. Moreover, the easing of re- strictions is being imple- mented in the knowledge that airports remain closed. Iron- ically, this relaxation actually depends on maintaining the greater restriction on tourism, which one of Malta's main lob- bies wants lifted. For now, the government seems keen on placating businesses by tem- porarily allowing restaurants to put more outside tables, at the risk of further undermin- ing pedestrian rights. Neither would Abela suspend sun-bed concessions for this summer, a measure that would free more space at popular beaches and actually making social distanc- ing easier. Ultimately, if the easing of measures does not contribute to an increase in infections, Abela may emerge a stronger and more popular leader. But if Malta is really hit by a second wave, he risks overplaying his hand with his recent declara- tions – that second wave can easily become a major wipe- out. Sure enough, the increase in numbers in the past days, although partly attributable to the increase in swabs, has already raised concern on whether the government is moving too fast. This would be a nightmare scenario for Abela, as the resurgence of the health crisis would drive Malta deeper in to recession. By hoping for the best, Abela is taking a cal- culated risk informed by expert opinion, knowing that prolong- ing the lockdown would spell a political and economic disas- ter. In the end, Abela may be doing what any politician in his position would do. Maybe he could do it more elegantly and with a more careful choice of words. Back to business The decision to ease re- strictions has surely raised hope among small businesses brought to a standstill by the virus. Abigail Mamo from the Chamber for SMEs describes it as a "slow return to a sense of normality", which have came in place after weeks of consul- tation. "We should not rush. Every decision needs the approval of the health authorities and we should continue to proceed in this way." However, the Chamber is al- so calling for vigilance to en- sure that health regulations are strictly adhered to. Nevertheless, the return to normality is not a straightfor- ward process. Mamo said a number of retail outlets are not finding it viable to open again due to the costs involved in a situation of lower demand. She says the situation will improve as more sectors reopen. "It is true that the first batch of retail outlets which have re-opened have found it very hard to op- erate. Some found out that they had re-opened for noth- ing. However, their hardship will be reduced as more sectors re-open. This is because the economy is a chain linking all the rings of the chain togeth- er. It is a time for patience and commitment." When asked whether a planned allowance for more outside tables would impinge on pedestrian rights Mamo said the balance had to be based on mutual respect. "We should be flexible and understand each other. We do not wish to create inconveniences to pedestrians. But we can be more flexible for a limited timeframe… Just as subsidies for different sec- tors are temporary, this meas- ure will also serve for a limited number of time. After COV- ID-19 the situation must revert to what it was before."