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6 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 27 MAY 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS JAMES DEBONO UNIVERSITY-EDUCATED re- spondents to MaltaToday survey are shedding their political loy- alties it seems. They have shown themselves to be nearly four times more likely to abstain in a forth- coming election than those with a secondary level of education, three times more than those with a post-secondary level of education, and 12 times more than those with a primary level of education. The fraction of non-voters – just one-tenth of voters on a national scale – rises to almost 20% among the university-educated, suggest- ing higher levels of distrust in the political system from this cohort. Nearly half, or 44%, said they won't vote or are undecided whom to vote for, compared to 26% with post-secondary and 16% with sec- ondary levels of education. This is a clear indication that the higher the level of education, the weaker partisan loyalties are becoming. In fact, while 84% of those with secondary education are keen on voting either the PN or the PL, the combined sum of both parties among the universi- ty-educated falls to just 54%. Yet despite weakening political loyalties, support for third parties among the university-educated remains very low at around 2%. This suggests the only alternative considered to voting for either major parties is not to vote at all, something that might reflect the absence of a viable third party which can attract these voters. Since this educational group has been traditionally PN-leaning, the high number of abstainers could also reflect the current distrust in Adrian Delia among a cohort of PN voters. In fact, this was al- so the only cohort to shift to the PN during the political crisis in December amidst a decline in non-committed voters from pre- vious surveys. However, subsequently Labour strengthened its lead in this cat- egory of tertiary-educated voters. This suggests that under Abela, Labour has renewed its appeal among upwardly-mobile educat- ed voters. While in the middle of the December crisis the PN had overtaken the PL by 6 points in this category, Labour has en- joyed a lead of between 14 and 22 points in all subsequent sur- veys. Although the lead remains lower than the 30-point national lead, Labour's lead among the ter- tiary-educated remained consist- ent over the past five months. Moreover, the lowest percent- age of non-committed university educated voters was registered in April when Labour also enjoyed a strong 22-point advantage in this group, with its support reaching an all-time high of 41%. This sug- gests that political loyalties among this group are fluid. While during the political crisis in December a decline in non-committed voters had resulted in the PN overtak- ing Labour by six points among the tertiary educated cohort, this was not the case in April when the number of non-committed voters was even lower. What surveys seem to suggest is with the exception of a surge in December during Labour's greatest crisis, under Delia the PN has failed in making any inroads among the university-educated segment. In fact, in this segment the percentage of PN voters (20%) is lower than both undecided vot- ers (22%) and non-voters (22%). Support for the PN has oscillat- ed between 17% and 20% in recent surveys since February, a consid- erable decline since December when the PN scored 25% among the tertiary-educated. On the oth- er hand, Labour's support has os- cillated between 33% and 41%. Surveys also show that among the university-educated, any decrease in the percentage of non-voters in this category cor- responds to an increase in unde- cided voters, rather than by any significant shift towards any of the two major parties. For example, a 16-point increase in non-voters between April and May was cor- responded by a 10-point decrease in the percentage of undecided voters. This suggests a tendency among the university-educated to shift between a clear resolve not to vote to a state of indecision on who to vote for the party's leader- ship among this category. Since the formation of the new government, the percentage of non-voters among the university educated has oscillated between a 6% low in April and 32% in March, while the percentage of undecided voters oscillated between 15% in March and 39% in February. A regional analysis shows that the region with the highest per- centage of non-committed voters is the more affluent north which includes St Paul's Bay, Mosta, Mellieha and Naxxar. In this re- gion, 31% of voters are either un- decided or intent on not voting. The region also boasts the high- est percentage of voters intent on not voting (14%). Although traditionally Nationalist-leaning, Labour has made considerable inroads here in the past years. In contrast, the lowest percentage of non-committed voters is found in the Labour southeast where 15% are either undecided or intent on not voting. Yet the survey also indicates a degree of discontent- ment in Labour's strongholds in the south harbour region where 13% intend not voting and 27% are non-committal. Nearly 20% of university-educated respondents told MaltaToday they will not vote in the next general election, half not even committing to any of the major parties. Have political loyalties weakened or is this the PN's problem in reaching out to a segment that once leaned in its favour? Delia's PN fails to make inroads among university graduates PL 33.8% Non-voters 22.3% Undecided 21.9% PN 20.2% Voting intentions of the university-educated