Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1273535
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 29 JULY 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS PN: one, or too many horses? do-or-die moment on Saturday bels when they asked councillors to take a leap in the dark. Psy- chologically they have broken a barrier: the real alternative to Delia now actually exists. There is still the risk of seeing their own anti-Delia coalition break up at the very moment the real race starts. In a leader- ship contest Delia would still be in contention, while Delia could face the hurdle of having to pass through a due diligence process. Delia's due diligence hurdle could backfire Delia's candidature may still not be automatic, because the new PN statute – yet to come into force by way of a general election – demands a due dil- igence exercise on any candi- date's "employment, profession and business interests" by an eight-member internal commit- tee. It remains unclear whether it is applicable to the election of a new party leader since this rule falls under the purview of Article 172 (3), which suspends Articles 89 to 99 until after the next gen- eral election. Any attempt to block his candi- dature would leave the Delia fac- tion resentful and bitter and the party divided yet again. It would perpetuate the narrative of Delia being a victim of the party estab- lishment. The only way for the rebels to put an end the party's civil war is one in which Delia is beaten in a fair contest. The PN could still run the risk of a fragmented vote While it suits the rebels to have a plurality of candidates putting up their names now before the Council's decision, the moment the real race starts, a fragment- ed vote could play into Delia's hands. Before next Saturday, it makes sense to give councillors the im- pression that members will be spoilt for choice with a variety of valid candidates. Councillors supporting these rival candi- dates will have greater impetus to vote Delia out and encour- aging others to do so, boosting the chances of seeing their pre- ferred candidate winning. The open contest means the rebels have created an ad hoc coalition with councillors supporting the different candidates which are being mentioned. But after Saturday the prospect of facing Delia may well increase pressure on the rebels to rally around one candidate; and who should that be? Without any agreement in a split opposition, Delia could even emerge as the frontrunner in an eventual first round among councillors, as happened when he emerged on top of both Chris Said and Alex Perici Calascione in 2017 before beating Said in a vote among members. To avoid the risk of Delia emerging as a frontrunner, the rebels would have to unite around one candidature, paving the way for one decisive vote among party members. The lame duck certainty Despite the uncertainties faced by the rebel front in an open contest, Delia's path to winning would be far easier if council- lors opt for a sheer confirmation vote. All Delia would have to do then is rally against a negative vote rather than one for an alter- native leader. This would thwart the rebels' attempt to project their battle as one of hope and excitement against despair, while Delia could once again turn the con- test into one against the uncer- tainty of toppling him without a formal challenger. Winning an 'easier' prospect for a one- man race would boost Delia's campaign to regain the trust of party members. Still, even if De- lia wins, he has no guarantee of reuniting the party around him. By renewing their trust in Delia, members would be condemn- ing the party to lame duck sta- tus, with Delia crippled by the insurrection of the majority of his MPs. Delia would only have proved himself as a successful survivor in his own camp, but with very little chances of vic- tory against his main adversary: the Labour government. While it suits the rebels to have a plurality of candidates putting up their names now before the Council's decision, the moment the real race starts, a fragmented vote could play into Delia's hands