Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1285850
15 BERNARD Grech's superior perfor- mance when compared to Adrian Delia does offer the Nationalist Party more hope. Grech's trust rating of 32.1% when matched against Robert Abela is higher than any level Delia has ever obtained over the past three years. At a time when voters are still get- ting to know Grech, this is a signifi- cant result. It also surpasses the initial trust rating Simon Busuttil had ob- tained in June 2013 when he became PN leader. A MaltaToday survey back then showed Busuttil's trust rating running at 25.9% against then prime minister Joseph Muscat's 43.3%. But more importantly for the PN is Grech's ability to attract back into the fold voters who supported the party in the last general election. A breakdown of Grech's result in his runoff with Abela, shows that 75.6% of those who voted PN trust the lead- ership challenger. This, contrasts heavily with Delia's result, which shows that only 27.6% of PN voters trust him. The survey also shows that the PN continues to suffer a haemorrhage of votes to the Labour Party but with Grech as leader this is less pro- nounced. In the face-off between Grech and Abela, 8.9% of PN voters trust the Prime Minister, while 9% trust none of the two leaders. In the contest between Delia and Abela, 17.5% of PN voters trust the Labour leader and 50% trust no one. When survey respondents were asked who they trust between De- lia and Grech, the latter emerged as the clear winner. Grech is trusted by 43.1% and Delia scores 12.6%. Of significance in this reply is how Labour voters react. As expected, 51.6% of PL voters say they do not trust either Delia or Grech, and 12.2% are indifferent. But 23.2% of PL voters choose Grech and 13% choose Delia. This suggests that Labour voters may be more will- ing to listen to Grech than the current PN leader. Does this mean a PN led by Grech could beat Labour? The survey does not show this but for the first time in three years the PN's chances of giving their rivals a proper challenge may improve under Grech. Grech is relatively unknown and his performance around the coun- try, across all age groups, and among Labour voters, when compared to Delia's, indicates that people may be willing to listen to him. Obviously, these are very early days for Grech and he still faces an ardu- ous leadership campaign with all its pitfalls. Abela retains a strong trust level, which is bolstered by his ability to ap- peal to Nationalists even if Grech is in the equation. But the survey does show that at this juncture, Grech ap- pears to have the ability to consoli- date the party's voting base. This is important because Delia's tenure so far has been hampered by his inabili- ty to convince the PN's own voters to rally around him. It appears that voters perceive Grech as the candidate who can bring about unity in the PN. However, to beat Labour, Grech will have to reach out beyond the PN vote and this will require more energy and time. While Grech may have the energy, he has much less time on his hands, which makes beating Labour a daunting task. maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 SEPTEMBER 2020 MALTATODAY SURVEY PL's worst slump under Abela THE Labour Party has slumped to its worst perfor- mance since Robert Abela became prime minister in January, a MaltaToday survey shows but contin- ues to outperform its rival. The PL registers the support of 45.1%, almost three points less than its performance in July when the last voting intentions survey was con- ducted. The result, however, still leaves the PL well ahead of the Nationalist Party that enjoys the support of 23.5%, an upward movement of almost three points. Transferring the survey result onto the actual performance of the political parties in the last general election (assuming that those who are unsure will vote according to their previous elec- tion choice), shows that the PL enjoys a lead of almost 57,000 votes. In the 2017 election the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes. The survey registers a negligible 0.4% result for the Democratic Party and no preference for Alter- nattiva Demokratika. Both parties have merged. Despite shedding support, the PL trumps the PN across all age groups and in all regions. The 65 and over age group gives both parties their best result with Labour obtaining 56.5% and the PN 34.1% Among those aged between 18 and 35, the PL scores 39.5% and the PN 11.8%. On a regional basis, the PL's results in its tradi- tional bulwarks – the South East and the South- ern Harbour – are not as stellar as Abela's trust rating, which could indicate that there is a high level of discontent with government in these ar- eas. In the South-Eastern region, the PL scores 59.2%, against the PN's 19%, and in the Southern Harbour region it scores 50.8%, against the PN's 11.8%. In Gozo, the PL scores 41.4%, while the PN se- cures the support of 22.9%. The closest result is in the Northern region, where the PL beats the PN by almost four points. Voter retention for the PL remains high at 82% of those who voted for it in the last election, say- ing they will cast their vote again for the party if an election were held tomorrow. It however loses 1.6% of its voters to the PN. The PN retains 58.5% of its 2017 vote but loses 6.6% to Labour. Methodology Survey carried out between Mon 31 August 2020 and Fri 4 September 2020. 655 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender used to replicate the Maltese demographic. Estimated margin of er- ror is 5% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group break- downs have considerably larger margins of error. Bernard Grech is a more unifying force for the PN and voters may be more willing to listen to him. But beating Labour at the polls is another ball game Can the PN win with Grech? Trust ratings for Adrian Delia and Bernard Grech Respondents were asked who they trust the most between Adrian Delia and Bernard Grech ALL PL PN AD Didn't vote Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 12.6% 43.1% 33.5% 10.8% 13.0% 23.2% 51.6% 12.2% 12.9% 72.4% 7.1% 7.6% 54.7% 45.3% 29.3% 47.5% 17.5% 12.3% 40.2% 34.7% 12.8% 12.9% 46.7% 32.0% 8.4% 8.4% 54.7% 27.3% 9.6% 11.7% 37.2% 39.1% 11.9% 12.7% 44.7% 28.1% 14.5% 20.4% 29.7% 44.3% 7.5% 49.6% 33.4% 9.4% 9.6% 50.3% 23.3% 16.8% 15.2% 44.4% 30.4% 10.0% 11.6% 35.8% 44.5% 8.1% 10.5% 35.6% 44.3% 9.7% 16.0% 47.9% 24.5% 11.6% 17.0% 22.8% 44.1% 16.1% 11.6% 38.1% 37.6% 12.8% 15.5% 47.3% 29.6% 7.7% 10.1% 54.3% 26.9% 8.7% Adrian Delia Bernard Grech Don't know None 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 57.1% 45.1% 39.8% 35.4% 40.8% 47.2% 34.5% 70.1% 60.0% 50.0% 40.3% 69.2% 58.6% 48.1% 34.2% 38.2% 40.1% Which political party would you vote for if held tomorrow? ALL PL 2017 PN 2017 AD 2017 Didn't vote M F 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec 45.1% 23.5% 82.0% 6.6% 58.5% 16.9% 58.3% 13.1% 7.0% 22.9% 47.0% 18.0% 42.7% 30.3% 39.5% 11.8% 42.9% 21.2% 45.6% 31.1% 56.5% 41.4% 22.9% 33.7% 29.9% 42.3% 27.9% 59.2% 50.8% 11.8% 41.3% 27.6% 67.4% 50.6% 40.0% 16.4% PL PN AD PD Don't 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 55.7% 35.5% 57.1% 32.2% 10.7% 45.1% 39.8% 8.7% 6.3% 35.4% 40.8% 15.2% 8.7% 47.2% 34.5% 14.2% 70.1% 17.4% 7.5% 60.0% 24.8% 12.2% 50.0% 40.3% 7.7% 69.2% 20.0% 8.7% 58.6% 28.4% 8.7% 48.1% 34.2% 12.5% 38.2% 40.1% 16.3% Which political party would you vote for if a general election were to be held tomorrow? ALL PL 2017 PN 2017 AD 2017 Didn't vote M F 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary 45.1% 23.5% 6.6% 20.3% 82.0% 5.3% 6.6% 58.5% 9.4% 28.9% 16.9% 58.3% 13.1% 7.0% 22.9% 47.0% 18.0% 6.2% 17.2% 42.7% 30.3% 35.6% 39.5% 11.8% 8.4% 18.9% 42.9% 21.2% 8.0% 14.2% 45.6% 31.1% 6.2% 8.5% 56.5% 34.1% 41.4% 22.9% 5.4% 22.3% 33.7% 29.9% 9.2% 13.9% 42.3% 27.9% 39.9% 59.2% 19.0% 13.6% 6.4% 50.8% 11.8% 5.8% 27.9% 41.3% 27.6% 8.2% 23.5% 67.4% 25.3% 20.3% 50.6% 24.7% 6.2% 9.9% PL PN AD PD Don't know No vote 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 55.7% 35.5% 57.1% 32.2% 10.7% 45.1% 39.8% 8.7% 6.3% 35.4% 40.8% 15.2% 8.7% 47.2% 34.5% 14.2% 70.1% 17.4% 7.5% 60.0% 24.8% 12.2% 50.0% 40.3% 7.7% 69.2% 20.0% 8.7% 58.6% 28.4% 8.7% 48.1% 34.2% 12.5% 38.2% 40.1% 16.3% Which political party would you vote for if a general election were to be held tomorrow? ALL PL 2017 PN 2017 AD 2017 Didn't vote M F 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western Primary 45.1% 23.5% 6.6% 20.3% 82.0% 5.3% 6.6% 58.5% 9.4% 28.9% 16.9% 58.3% 13.1% 7.0% 22.9% 47.0% 18.0% 6.2% 17.2% 42.7% 30.3% 35.6% 39.5% 11.8% 8.4% 18.9% 42.9% 21.2% 8.0% 14.2% 45.6% 31.1% 6.2% 8.5% 56.5% 34.1% 41.4% 22.9% 5.4% 22.3% 33.7% 29.9% 9.2% 13.9% 42.3% 27.9% 39.9% 59.2% 19.0% 13.6% 6.4% 50.8% 11.8% 5.8% 27.9% 41.3% 27.6% 8.2% 23.5% 67.4% 25.3% 20.3% PL PN AD PD Don't know No vote PL PN Don't know / Won't vote