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Kaweh Kerami Kaweh Kerami is a PhD Researcher in Development Studies, at SOAS, University of London 12 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 9 SEPTEMBER 2020 OPINION A delegation from the Taliban has arrived in the Qatari capital Doha to begin talks with dele- gates from the Afghan republic in Kabul. The goal is to reach a peace accord to end the world's deadliest war. The long-delayed talks come after an agreement in February between the US and the Talib- an, which included a conditional US troop withdrawal within 14 months, a controversial prisoner swap and the Taliban's promise to cut ties with al-Qaida. The hope is that a political set- tlement could help reduce the likelihood of Afghanistan be- coming a safe haven for terrorists once the US withdraws its troops. But the peace talks, known as the intra-Afghan negotiations, have a rocky road to success. Apart from fundamental differences on the type of post-peace government and women's rights, the chal- lenge will be whether any agree- ment on a lasting ceasefire can be reached until political progress is made. Lasting ceasefire According to the UN, the 19-year war has taken at least 35,000 civilian lives with the ma- jority of casualties inflicted by anti-government groups, mainly the Taliban. After a series of three-day ceasefires during Muslim festi- vals in 2020, the warring parties have expressed willingness to ne- gotiate a lasting ceasefire during the new talks, but disagreements remain on the timing and se- quencing of it. Unlike the Afghan government, human rights bod- ies and the EU, who all put hu- manitarian imperatives first, the Taliban's view is that a ceasefire can be negotiated only after a po- litical agreement. Governments usually advo- cate for an early ceasefire in or- der to minimise the number of concessions they are required to make in negotiations. But armed groups are often opposed, argu- ing an early ceasefire can favour the status quo and government. Some ceasefires, such as in Aceh, Indonesia in 2005, have been successfully agreed at the beginning of negotiations. But there are some examples, such as in El Salvador in the early 1990s, where a ceasefire was only ne- gotiated after progress had been made on the political front. A post-peace government Afghanistan's 2004 constitu- tion, formed after the toppling of the Taliban Islamic Emirate in 2001, starts by calling Afghan- istan "an Islamic Republic, inde- pendent, unitary and indivisible". It's likely the negotiators will agree on all these broad princi- ples – except the idea of Afghani- stan as a republic. That's because the Taliban still presents itself as an Islamic emirate forced into ex- ile by the US invasion. The Afghan republic derives its legitimacy from a popular man- date, rather than the divine right vested in the Taliban's Islamic emirate. The head of state and members of parliament are now elected, albeit with allegations of electoral fraud and malpractice. After capturing Kabul in 1996, the Taliban formed a two-track governance system, made up of a political military leadership council and an executive bureau aiming to transfer its leadership system into state structures. But the group never succeeded in forming a functional state. In 2020, little is known about the specifics of what the Taliban wants the future Afghan state to look like. However, the group does appear to want an inclusive, Islamic political system in which sharia laws are enforced – possi- bly akin to the theocratic govern- ment in Iran. To ensure effectiveness and stability, any agreement on the structure of a post-peace govern- ment should make clear the role of the state institutions which have been set up since 2001. And it must also reflect the un- derlying configuration of power in Afghanistan, which is pre- dominantly based on consensus among elites than domination by one group over the rest. Rights and justice The Taliban claims to want to build an Islamic system in which all Afghans have equal rights, where the rights of women "granted by Islam" are protect- ed. When Taliban leaders were asked whether women should be allowed to go outside alone, ac- cording to Human Rights Watch, they said women would only be permitted to travel a short dis- tance without a male compan- ion. Such a restriction would be among the the world's strictest interpretations of sharia law – comparable to Saudi Arabia's guardianship system. The question is whether Talib- an negotiators will be willing to acknowledge that there are mul- tiple interpretations of sharia, as well as embrace the post-2001 re- alities of Afghanistan, which have changed significantly since the group was last in power. The fact that all sides are now sitting down at the negotiating table doesn't necessarily mean they all believe a mutually ac- ceptable political settlement is feasible. It can be tactical, a way to show progress. The success of peace negotia- tions depends partly on whether the parties involved now con- clude they can no longer sustain the recent levels of violence. But it also depends on them changing their perception of the conflict as a zero-sum game – one in which what one side gains, the other loses. While all parties express their willingness to end the prolonged war, there are doubts whether the peace efforts could have got this far without US pressure for intra-Afghan negotiations to be- gin. But the US involvement – and Trump's apparent push to get a deal before the US election in November – could mean a peace agreement ends up being imposed on Afghanistan that is likely to fail, for example due to reluctance of the post-peace gov- ernment to implement it. The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, recently said that "Afghan society doesn't have a deadline". Given the frighteningly massive human cost of the war, these peace efforts must be given a gen- uine chance – along with the nec- essary time and space to succeed. Afghanistan: What's at stake as Taliban sits down to negotiate ending 19-year war Paving way for talks: Taliban members stand in front of a poster of President Ashraf Ghani after their release from prison in May 2020