Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1288715
9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 16 SEPTEMBER 2020 NEWS in the face of greater pluralism and diversity in Maltese socie- ty. 3. Both candidates ended up answering questions on their tax problems rather than on the country's economy Grech has clearly underesti- mated the impact of his own tax problems in a race partly prompted by concern on De- lia's finances. The reality is that while Grech's and Delia's tax problems are common among self-employed professionals, this inevitably contrasts with platitudes on the respect for the common good and good governance. In Grech's case the fall-out is greater for the simple rea- son that his candidacy raised expectations for a PN leader who can take on Labour's cor- ruption without being exposed to attack because of personal baggage. Instead Grech found himself answering questions on a tax bill, which was only settled af- ter he decided to contest for the leadership. So instead of listening to how the two can- didates intend to boost the country's finances, voters are listening to how the two candi- dates have sorted out their own personal finances. 4. Grech is already making excuses for electoral defeat During one of the TV inter- views Grech suggested that if Labour goes for an early elec- tion in the next few months, he would not be in a position to do much to restore his party's for- tunes. Understandably Grech has to defend his position and raising expectations of a mira- cle turnaround would backfire badly on him. For if defeated by a big margin, Grech's po- sition may once again be in- ternally questioned, especially by those elements in his party who reluctantly supported him but would have preferred other candidates. Yet Grech may have found a better choice of words to bet- ter anticipate Labour's moves. He may well play the underdog card, seeking to generate en- thusiasm in a David and Go- liath contest. Grech would be right in saying that the odds are stacked against the PN, but he can use this to instil a sense of hope, which is essential to gen- erate the enthusiasm of party volunteers. In this sense Grech can't afford to say that the next election is unwinnable if he wants to achieve a more real- istic goal of narrowing the gap. 5. Delia's anti-establishment rants look tired Delia still pits his new way against an entrenched party es- tablishment. So is Delia in the wrong party? After all the con- nections of the party to profes- sional and business elites go far back into the party's history and include the glorious time when the party dominated the political landscape under the leadership of Eddie Fenech Ad- ami. Indeed, Delia's anti-establish- ment 'insurgency' never ques- tions this aspect of the party's history and seems more direct- ed at a segment of tertiary-edu- cated voters who distrust him, and a coterie of MPs who re- mained antagonistic towards him. He ignores the reality that on- ly a minority in the party's own parliamentary group supports him. He has been repeatedly outvoted in internal votes in party structures and only holds on because members elected him two years ago. While Delia is right in feeling singled out for sins, which are common across the factional divide in his party, his stance suggests an aversion to structures and an inability to win over the party's middle ground. Rather than winning more MPs and party officials over, Delia found himself losing the support of key allies in both the party and the parliamentary group. 6. Labour is more afraid of Grech Although the Labour Par- ty has deemed both Delia and Grech as not being worthy of constitutional office because of their tax problems, the party's media has been more focused on questioning Grech, while pandering to the anger of De- lia's anti-elitist supporters, possibly considering the latter either as potential abstainers in a forthcoming election, or pos- sible defectors. Labour may well consider Grech to be the most likely winner and the one with the best chance of reuniting and giving a sense of purpose to the Opposition. What Labour fears most is not Grech winning the next election, as this remains very unlikely, but Grech gain- ing traction by a poll rebound after reuniting PN voters. This rebound is the precon- dition for any gains Grech can make among floaters and mid- dle of the road voters. If Grech keeps this traction he could be in a position to narrow the gap and emerge as a possible chal- lenger for government, not in the next election but in the one after. Labour knows that short of a miracle turnaround, Delia is not even in a position to get to that stage. So the next best sce- nario for Labour is a weakened Grech who is unable to bridge the divide with the Delia fac- tion. Still, Grech was wrong on blaming stories related to his self-inflicted tax problem on Labour's fear of him becoming leader. This curveball was definitive- ly not of Labour's making. And the shadow cast on Grech has definitely weakened his appeal among a cohort of voters who were warming up to a PN lead- er without baggage, but who are now more cynical than ev- er in a scenario which actually benefits Labour. Repetitive and predictable?