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MaltaToday 30 September 2020 MIDWEEK

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9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 30 SEPTEMBER 2020 ANALYSIS The next PN leader will have a baggage Bernard Grech's promise at the start of his campaign was to give the PN a leader who could face up to Labour's corrupt record, without being singled out for his sins. But it turns out he settled his dues with the tax authorities right on the eve of his campaign, and his squeaky- clean image was tarnished among those who expected better. Simply put, his behaviour when below the ra- dar did not match the high standards expected of an aspiring PM. Instead PN members are now ask- ing which candidate has the lightest baggage and who has the best chance of giving Labour a run for its money. But others may well feel free to vote for the original outsider, considering that Grech lost the main advantage he had over Delia. Tackling tax evasion will be tricky for any PN leader aspiring to be- come PM Both Delia and Grech will lack the moral authority to clamp down on widespread tax evasion and to nur- ture a sense of fiscal morality in the country. While the self-employed may iden- tify with the fiscal troubles of both leaders, they will remind both PN candidates of their own tax record when faced with tax investigations. While in this case Delia's and Grech's sins appear venial com- pared to Panama scandal of Kon- rad Mizzi and Keith Schembri, by ditching these toxic elements La- bour may ironically turn the tables on the fiscal morality of the next PN leader. Male lawyers fight it out next election Irrespective of who wins, the next election will be a contest between male lawyers, with the PN losing a unique opportunity to distinguish itself from Labour. And while La- bour has cultivated a generation of female candidates through its LEAD programme, the PN still lags behind. Labour's lawyer-leader might also appeal to a middle-class pale-blue Nationalist, something previously inexistent with the party's marked preference for economists (Alfred Sant and Joseph Muscat), an archi- tect (Dom Mintoff) and a doctor (Paul Boffa). The next PN leader will hail from socially conservative wing of the party Grech campaigned against the in- troduction of divorce in 2011 but started his campaign by opening up to a debate on abortion and prom- ising to respect a referendum on these issues. But his attempt to reach out to liberals faced a backlash from con- servatives, and Grech committed himself to resign if a referendum approves abortion. On his part Delia appeared more consistent with the conservatives, which is adamant against any de- bate on this issue. Irrespective of who wins… If Grech wins... Grech must mend bridges with Delia while keeping rebels on board Unlike Delia who would seek to assert his power if he wins, Grech must unify the party. Any rebound in the polls needs the Delia faction on board and winning over those who resent Delia. In short, Grech is obliged to reunify PN voters before hav- ing any chance of winning over floaters and Labour voters. If he is successful in keeping everyone on board, he would immediate- ly start with a poll boost, which would instil hope in the party and greater interest both among potential new candidates and donors. The Grech project would simply fail if those supporting Delia are left in the cold, emerging as a new catego- ry of abstainers in the polls. But even keeping Delia on board may create problems with the fallout from the Fenech WhatsApp con- vos: if Delia is implicated in any dealings with Fenech, Grech will have to choose whether to defend Delia, or kick him out at the risk of angering his supporters. Grech will have the backing of a majority of MPs Grech starts with one big advan- tage. He will enjoy the support of the majority of MPs. Others who support Delia are also likely to reach out to the new party lead- er whose good will would be in- dispensable for their re-election chances. In short with Grech as leader, the PN will find it easier to re- compose as a united opposition in parliament. Labour would reach out to Delia faction to sabotage Grech's poll rebound It is clear that Labour fears Grech more but it is doing Delia no favours by 'supporting' him. In reality Labour is only interest- ed in prolonging the civil war in the PN. If Grech does win, Labour's pri- ority would be that of ensuring that the Delia faction remains resentful and bitter, to ensure a substantial abstention among Delia loyalists or possibly their defection to Labour. In this way Grech would be de- nied a much-needed initial poll rebound to set him on a favour- able trajectory and even narrow the gap in the next election to win the next one. Labour could toy with an early election, despite risking being seen as opportun- istic, even with COVID-19 anx- ieties continuing over the next months. Voting Voting in the leadership election started last weekend and will continue on Thursday and Friday. Saturday will see polling booths open until 4pm.

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