Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1308376
4 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 NOVEMBER 2020 NEWS ANALYSIS Grech's election props up PN support among university-educated JAMES DEBONO UNIVERSITY-EDUCATED re- spondents are once again flock- ing towards the PN, but Labour retains a substantial lead not just among the secondary-ed- ucated but also among re- spondents who continued their post-secondary education, such as in institutions like MCAST. The latest MaltaToday survey shows that following the elec- tion of Bernard Grech as lead- er, the PN has seen its support among the university-educated increase from just 11.5% in July to 41.8% now. Significantly, for the second consecutive time since Grech's election, the PN enjoys a rel- ative majority among univer- sity-educated respondents, with the gap between the two big parties increasing from 9.1 points in October to 12.5 points now. This represents a sharp change from April, when the PL held a 22-point advantage in this category. University-educated respond- ents – along with voters in Gozo, the northern and west- ern regions – remain the only demographic groups where the PN enjoys a relative majority, with Labour enjoying a lead in all other educational groups, re- gions and among respondents of all ages. The poll gains of the PN among the university-educated corre- sponds to a massive decline in non-voters and undecided from 46.8% in March to just 27.1% now. This suggests that the par- ty has now recovered the sup- port of the anti-Delia faction, which was particularly strong among university-educated PN voters. Previous surveys dur- ing the PN leadership contest showed Delia having the least support among tertiary-educat- ed PN voters. Moreover, support for Labour has consistently slipped among the tertiary-educated from 41% in April to 29% now. This sug- gests that Labour is experienc- ing problems in addressing the concerns of more educated vot- ers who are also more likely to have post material concerns on themes like the environment, quality of life and good govern- ance. This may explain why Labour is trying to reach out to this cat- egory by trying the convey the message that it is turning a new page on issues like the environ- ment and good governance. Yet the PN's gains among the university-educated are not reflected in other education- al groups, particularly among the post-secondary educated where the party has practically retained the same level of sup- port that it had under Adrian Delia. The gap between the two parties among the post-sec- ondary educated has increased from 15.6 points in October to 27.2 points now. The gap now is the same as it was in April. This indicates that under Bernard Grech the party has not reached out to these socially mobile vot- ers. It would then be a return to the prevailing situation under Simon Busuttil when the PN en- joyed a lead among tertiary-ed- ucated voters but lagged behind Labour among those with a pri- mary, secondary and post-sec- ondary education. The latter were pivotal in the construction of Labour's new majority before 2013 shifting from a pro-PN majority before 2008. Significantly the PN has now made more advances among secondary-educated than among the post-secondary ed- ucated. In fact while the gap among the post-secondary ed- ucated has remained stable, the gap among secondary has de- clined from 26.6 points in Oc- tober to 17.4 points now. The educational divide may reflect the wider class divide between Labour-leaning work- ing-class voters who are more inclined towards vocational and technical education, and pro- fessionals who are more likely to be university-educated as well as having different con- cerns and ways of accessing and interpreting the media. This contrasts with voting patterns in most other European coun- tries where social-democratic and progressive parties tend to prevail among university grad- uates, but have lost to the far- right among voters with a lower level of education. This may ex- plain why Maltese Labour bal- ances its social liberalism with a hawkish stance on migration. The educational divide also suggests that the PN is finding it more difficult to communi- cate with working-class voters, including those who attended MCAST and other post-sec- ondary institutions apart from university. All this in a context where issues like low wages or housing affordability hardly feature in everyday political dis- course. Support for PN among different educational groups 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 February March April May June July October November 16.5% 24.9% 26.5% 16.4% 16.1% 21.3% 18.5% 30.3% 21.5% 20.2% 22.6% 21.8% 18.6% 29.3% 18.4% 11.5% 20.7% 22.3% 36.7% 22.7% 24.8% 41.8% 22.3% 30.9% Tertiary Post-Secondary Secondary Gap between parties among different educational groups February March April May June July October November 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13.9% (PL) 21.8% (PL) 29.3% (PL) 17.9% (PL) 21.1% (PL) 28.9% (PL) 22.4% (PL) 27.7% (PL) 37.7% (PL) 13.6% (PL) 26.8% (PL) 39.5% (PL) 12.8% (PL) 42.8% (PL) 23.2% (PL) 34.5% (PL) 16.2% (PL) 9.1% (PN) 15.6% (PL) 26.6% (PL) 12.5% (PN) 27.2% (PL) 17.4% (PL) Tertiary Post-Secondary Secondary