Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1315450
13 MALTATODAY SURVEY S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 53.0% 23.9% 17.1% 6.1% 47.7% 40.2% 10.9% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Did not vote 2017 Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 42.9% 30.3% 11.1% 13.8% 81.5% 6.8% 7.9% 72.3% 12.3% 11.3% 6.6% 6.7% 26.0% 52.9% 44.1% 28.3% 11.6% 13.9% 41.8% 32.1% 10.7% 13.8% 34.5% 19.1% 13.4% 29.0% 36.3% 36.2% 11.8% 13.0% 44.7% 37.9% 10.6% 6.1% 56.6% 28.7% 8.5% 63.6% 29.0% 46.9% 28.7% 13.3% 10.5% 35.8% 30.0% 11.2% 16.6% 31.6% 33.6% 11.9% 21.8% 46.7% 26.8% 11.3% 11.8% 31.5% 31.1% 19.6% 17.8% 36.2% 36.1% 11.9% 14.3% 56.8% 19.0% 9.6% 13.4% 49.3% 23.2% 9.0% 15.9% 42.0% 41.6% 7.9% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 07-May-17 21-May-17 1-June-17 19-Nov-17 4-Mar-18 3-June-18 2-Sept-18 11-Nov-18 03-Feb-19 07-Apr-19 3-Nov-19 15-Mar-20 24-May-20 19-Jul-20 11-Oct-20 6-Dec-20 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls KURT SANSONE SUPPORT for the two major parties has slipped with the Mal- taToday December survey put- ting the Labour Party at 42.9% and the Nationalist Party at 30.3%. Robert Abela's party lost 1.3 points since last month's survey, while Bernard Grech's lost 2.1 points. ADPD continued to under- perform, registering a mere 0.3%, while for the first time in 12 months, the Malta Patriots Movement registered 0.6%. On a regional basis, the PL has followed Abela's trust lead and won back a relative majority in Gozo, reversing last month's result. In Gozo the PL scored 46.7% against the PN's 26.8%. The PL also won back a relative majority in the Western region – 42% versus the PN's 41.6%. Last month, the PN had prevailed in this region. However, races have tightened in the Northern and Northern Harbour regions where the par- ties appear to be neck and neck. In the Northern region, the PL scored 31.5% against the PN's 31.1%, while in the Northern Harbour region the PL's support stood at 36.2% against the PN's 36.1%. Data on a regional basis has to be interpreted cautiously be- cause the margin of error for these subsets is always higher than that for the overall result. However, over time, the results could provide an indication of trends. The shift in Gozo comes af- ter Abela's Cabinet reshuffle that has strengthened Labour's standing on the sister island through the appointment of three ministers. In the Southern Harbour re- gion, although the PL enjoys a comfortable lead over its rival, support for the government par- ty dropped to 49.3%. Silvio Par- nis's removal from parliamen- tary secretary may have played a part in this decrease, given that the electoral district he was elected from falls within this re- gion. Taking into account the actu- al performance of the political parties in the last general elec- tion as a starting point and us- ing the survey results on how people voted back then and how they will vote now, shows the PL ahead with 35,603 votes. In the 2017 general election, the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes. This assumes that those who are unsure now, will vote ac- cording to their previous elec- tion choice. Labour beats the PN in all age groups with the widest margins being among the young and el- derly. Among those aged between 18 and 35, the PL scored 34.5% against the PN's 19.1%, while among those aged 65 and over, the PL hit 56.6% against the PN's 28.7%. However, it is a very tight race among those aged between 36 and 50, with support for the PL running at 36.3% and that for the PN at 36.2%. Methodology The survey was carried out between Monday 30 November 2020 and Friday 4 December 2020. 641 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on re- gion, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demo- graphic. The estimated margin of error is 4.9% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub- group breakdowns have signifi- cantly larger margins of error. Labour wins Gozo, but parties neck and neck in northern regions maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 DECEMBER 2020