Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1327039
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 10 JANUARY 2021 MALTATODAY SURVEY S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 57.4% 29.8% 11.7% 44.6% 30.7% 17.1% 7.5% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL now PN now No vote PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 42.1% 33.6% 9.2% 13.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 81.0% 6.2% 6.7% 74.3% 11.4% 12.3% 6.9% 5.7% 18.5% 58.6% 40.4% 35.0% 9.7% 13.7% 44.3% 31.7% 8.5% 12.8% 29.6% 32.0% 14.1% 21.2% 37.3% 31.7% 15.1% 15.0% 56.6% 25.4% 11.2% 48.0% 44.1% 67.0% 25.2% 47.0% 33.6% 7.7% 11.7% 41.1% 27.4% 12.8% 16.3% 26.5% 40.5% 10.8% 17.6% 47.0% 30.1% 12.2% 34.1% 39.0% 12.0% 13.8% 35.9% 42.4% 8.1% 12.8% 44.7% 25.6% 8.9% 15.7% 54.7% 24.4% 15.0% 44.3% 29.3% 12.1% 14.3% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jun-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Nov-16 30-Apr-17 14-May-17 28-May-17 10-Oct-17 4-Feb-18 6-May-18 5-Aug-18 7-Oct-18 23-Dec-18 02-Mar-19 5-May-19 2-Feb-20 12-Apr-20 21-Jun-20 6-Sep-20 9-Nov-20 9-Jan-21 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls KURT SANSONE GAINS made by the Nationalist Party over the past month have cut the gap with the Labour Par- ty to 26,000 votes, MaltaToday's first survey for 2021 shows. Support for the PN stood at 33.6%, an increase of just over three points since December and the best result since October 2017. Support for the PL stood at 42.1%, a decline of less than a per- centage point since last month's survey. A significant factor weighing in favour of the PN was the shift from the last general election. The survey showed that 6% of those who voted PL in 2017, would vote for the PN if an election is held to- morrow, while only 2% of PN vot- ers would shift their vote. Taking into account the actual performance of the political par- ties in the last general election as a starting point and using the sur- vey results on how people voted back then and how they will vote now, shows the PL ahead with 25,609 votes. In the 2017 general election, the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes. This assumes that those who are unsure now, will vote according to their previous election choice. PN voters are more likely than PL voters not to vote if a gener- al election is held tomorrow. The survey showed that 12.3% of those who voted PN in 2017 will not vote, while 6.8% of PL voters will likewise abstain. These numbers suggest the PN still has a long road ahead of it to heal the internal rifts caused by the two leadership elections held in the space of three years. The PL led the PN among men and women, although the gap is tighter among male voters. In a significant development for the Opposition party, the PN beat the PL among those aged between 16 and 35. In this category, the PN scored 32% versus the PL's 29.6%. This result flips the trust rating of both leaders – Abela was more trusted than Grech – among young voters. Although margins of error in these subgroups are much higher, this may suggest that younger voters prefer Abela over Grech but are less convinced of the PL's performance. A similar situation results among pensioners, where Grech is more trusted than Abela but the PL beats the PN. On a geographical basis, the re- sult reflected the trust ratings of both leaders. The PN won the Northern and Northern Harbour regions but lost everywhere else. In Gozo, the PL scored 47% against the PN's 30.1%, while the governing party posted its best re- sult in the Southern Harbour re- gion with 54.7%. The third political force, ADPD, failed to make any inroads, regis- tering 1% support that is primari- ly derived from those who did not vote in the 2017 general election. Overall, there were 13.3% of voters who said they will not vote if an election is held tomorrow, while 9.2% were unsure of who to cast their vote for. Methodology The survey was carried out be- tween Monday 4 January 2021 and Friday 8 January 2021. 640 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The esti- mated margin of error is 4.9% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of er- ror. Labour lead down to 26,000 votes, PN posts best result since 2017 In a significant development for the Opposition party, the PN beat the PL among those aged between 16 and 35