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8 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 10 JANUARY 2021 NEWS ANALYSIS Will Abela call a June election? WITHOUT fixed-term parliaments, Malta's general election is always the prime minister's prerogative, giving him the power to hold an election ac- cording to political convenience. While most Maltese governments have served full terms, elections have been called ahead of time in 1996 un- der Eddie Fenech Adami, and in 2017 by Muscat, in the absence of any threat to the government's parliamentary ma- jority. The 1998 general election was called three years ahead because of Dom Mintoff's rebellion against Alfred Sant's one-seat majority. Historically the last Labour govern- ment to serve a full term was the one voted out of office in 1987. Robert Abela, who criticised the PN for holding a leadership election in the middle of the pandemic, has hinted that he intends serving a full term till 2022. "I find no reason why we should go for an early election… it would be irrespon- sible to go for an election in the middle of a pandemic and likewise it would be irresponsible to do so in the middle of a recovery," Abela said back in October on TVM's Xtra. But this has not stopped the rumour mill in view of his commitment to re- store the country to "normality" by May, even if the vaccine roll-out for the general public starts then and herd immunity will only be achieved in sum- mer. The feel-good factor from the COV- ID-19 recovery Abela is forecasting the start of eco- nomic recovery for March 2021 and that the country will return to "business as usual" by May – but that depends on an efficient roll-out and take-up of the vaccine. Pandemics are always hard to predict and Abela will not call an election be- fore a drastic reduction in infections is registered. His optimism has already been dis- proved during the summer in which COVID-19 hit back. But if his plan for normality does go ahead as expected, he could bank on that optimism to ask the electorate to reward his government's performance. Despite its hiccups and an increase in deaths in autumn, Abela managed to avoid major job losses and a health sys- tem that stayed resilient in the face of adversity. Electoral legitimacy after inheriting the Muscat mandate Despite his determination to give his own stamp to the administration inher- ited from Joseph Muscat with a second Cabinet reshuffle in November, Abela lacks the electoral mandate to consol- idate his hold within his party. A new mandate will give him the pow- er to take decisions that can put him on a collision course with Muscat on such developments as the Caruana Galizia assassination probe and spin-offs from Panamagate. A June election could even be an indi- cation that Abela is expecting bad news on this front. While few would doubt his ability to win the next election, holding on to the same margin of victory as in 2017 could be more difficult. Winning like Muscat despite the two- term itch, which has penalised every post-war administration, would be a With elections due in 2022, this year will definitely see intensification in electoral campaigning. But will upping the electoral ante lead to an early election in June? James Debono maps out the Prime Minister's options. JAMES DEBONO