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9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 10 JANUARY 2021 NEWS ANALYSIS election? considerable feat. To replicate these electoral victories would mean choos- ing only the most favourable timing. Bernard Grech with less time to con- solidate standing in PN A June election piles pressure on Ber- nard Grech, who is still consolidating his grip on the PN after being elected leader three months ago. Polls show Grech has managed to re- unite his party and recover the support it enjoyed in 2017, but he has made no headway among those who voted La- bour back then. Losing by the same margin in an elec- tion would be a demoralising blow for the Nationalists and it will give Robert Abela the honeymoon he was denied from the toxic fall-out of the Muscat government and COVID-19. With a strong majority, Abela would also be in a stronger position to deal with a less promising economic situ- ation and the contradictory demands from Labour's electoral bloc on contro- versial issues such as the environment and land use which may have a bearing on post-COVID recovery. Postponing drastic post-COVID decisions after victory Major credit agencies forecast a quick recovery for Malta, but Abela might consider the cloudy future of Air Malta and the Moneyval verdict and its im- pact on financial services. Tourism might take longer to return to prosperity. The new wage supplements expire in March so much depends on the economy picking up steam within the next months. Labour's social spend depends on the returns of economic growth, without increased taxation. But reigniting the economic engine could come with con- troversy if he chooses the Muscat for- mula of over-reliance on construction and foreign labour. An early election could signal appre- hension for the future, backfiring by creating greater uncertainty: why go for an election when he can give more in a post-pandemic Budget? Missing out on a post-COVID budget in October Abela's last budget was conditioned by the pandemic, so if his optimistic 2021 forecast is correct, it only makes sense for him not to hold an early election and proceed to present his first 'normal' budget in October 2021. The budget could be even more gen- erous and therefore become a launch- ing pad for a 2022 election. That budget could target more pockets of discon- tentment before the country goes to the polls and give his new finance minister Clyde Caruana a chance to prove his worth before the next election. Like Sant and Muscat, Abela would not complete a whole term Abela may be keen on ditching the perception that Labour is unable to complete a full term, something which eluded past Labour leaders like Alfred Sant and Joseph Muscat. If the economy is on track for full re- covery, he could still win big in 2022, which means he has little reason for an early election. But rumours of an imminent election would keep the Opposition on edge and unable to focus on the internal reforms it needs to carry out before a 2022 campaign. Rather than seriously con- sidering an early election, Labour may be keener on keeping the Opposition guessing. Election campaign could derail eco- nomic recovery It makes little sense to derail business activity at a strategic juncture when the country should be focusing on recovery. Abela may opt for the shortest cam- paign possible after the Easter recess but it would still risk putting the coun- try on hold for nearly a month, to the displeasure of suffering businesses. Abela would be fighting an outsider in Bernard Grech whose campaigning skills are yet to be tested. Conventional wisdom suggests Abela would be better off fending such a challenge after a gen- erous budget, making a June election unlikely. Achieving herd immunity It is extremely unlikely for Abela to call an election before a substantial per- centage of the population is vaccinated and herd immunity is not likely to be achieved before summer. The vaccine will only made available for the entire population at the end of April or the beginning of May. This on its own would exclude a June election and point towards an election after the next budget. However, the vaccination timeframes announced last week could be brought forward if the European Medicines Agency authorises the Oxford-Astra- Zeneca vaccine of which Malta has one million ordered doses. Whether a third vaccine option will help achieve herd immunity so much earlier than expected depends on the government's capacity to step up inoc- ulations but also on the delivery rate of vaccines by the pharma companies. PHOTO: JAMES BIANCHI / MALTATODAY