Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1327573
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 13 JANUARY 2021 NEWS ANALYSIS stopping the spiral of decline to start focusing on future gains. Grech has proved an important maxim of Maltese politics: that unity is a precondition for future growth and that a divided house does not inspire any trust. In fact Grech has done everything to keep the peace internally but has re- frained from any significant action which could create factional war- fare: he still to reshuffle his shadow cabinet. Unity may also come at a price. For at the roots of Malta's good governance deficit is the reluc- tance of political parties to up- root the bad weeds in fear that this would create disunity. Surely Grech has reclaimed that segment of the party, which resented Delia for not being energetic enough on the corruption front. But unlike Simon Busuttil, Grech himself refrains from warlike pro- nouncements and has largely fo- cused on less divisive issues, like the pandemic, while also reaching out to Labour voters by commem- orating Karen Grech's murder. What does Grech stand for? As the election approaches peo- ple may expect Grech to come up with a vision which includes a few concrete proposals. Over the past months Grech has been vague on policy commitments, including a half-baked reference to a living wage, waffling on important issues like the Gozo tunnel, and refrained from alienating powerful lobbies like hunters and developers, giving the impression that he is running with the hares while chasing with the hounds. But he has also shown leadership, ditching his own perceived con- servatism by pre-empting Abela to endorse the reduction of the wait- ing period between separation and divorce. What remains unclear is what Grech stands for. Perhaps part of his success lies in not antagonising too many people and projecting his party as a safe harbour for those floaters and past PL voters who in- evitably start experiencing 'Labour fatigue'. As happened in 2013 with Mus- cat, floaters tend to gravitate to- wards unflappable, inclusive types who can project stability rather than conflict, even if this often dis- guises contradictions that come to the boil only when elected in pow- er. What Grech may be doing is projecting his party as a broad church kept together by a vague vision, based on platitudes like the common good, but devoid of clear commitments on wages, housing, planning, migration and infra- structure which would inevitably pit him against strong and influen- tial lobbies. There is a limit to how much Grech can hold his act together without making clear choices. The PN cannot ignore the issues raised by civil society and NGOs which are at present more vocal than the party itself, but whose stances present both opportunity and risks for the opposition. The PN risks being torn between the prospect of reclaiming its position as a trusted party of the establishment and dis- penser of patronage, and its bid to project enthusiasm for a change in the country's direction. New blood needed While the electorate may be tired of endless partisan warfare and a crusading opposition like that headed by Simon Busuttil, voters need a motivation to rally behind the PN as a credible alternative government. Much also depends on wheth- er Grech can inject new blood in a party whose pool of talent has shrunk. His problem is that with the party destined to lose the next election, it is still not attractive enough for careerists who would only jump on the winning cart. Neither does it offer enough hope to idealists. While the party may tap dissatis- faction on issues like the environ- ment and governance, this dissat- isfaction may be less felt among more traditional cohorts which the PN needs to win back to construct a new majority. And although becoming increas- ingly unwieldy for the two big parties to contain within them so many contradictory interests, the two-party system remains resilient. In fact, one of Grech's advantages is that till now he faces no pressure from the ADPD outfit, which has so far made little headway. Abela's pain, Grech's gain The gains made by Grech in the latest survey coincide with Abela's dip to his lowest trust rating ever. Grech's advantage may well be that Labour's contradictions, root- ed in the broad coalition created by Joseph Muscat, are bound to become more acute under Abela, who is under increased pressure to give partisans their pound of flesh in a balancing act that keeps them happy while distancing Labour from Muscat's excesses. So while on one hand Abela must clean up his own house, he also must in- spire tribal loyalty to legitimise his leadership. The risk is that he either alienates his own allies, or emerge from this balancing act a more divisive lead- er. One example was his recent clash with teachers, a category which had warmed to Labour be- fore 2013 but which found itself the target of social media attacks by PL supporters in recent days. Instead of burying the hatchet af- ter signing an agreement with the MUT, Abela praised strike-break- ers in his Sunday homily. It is this attitude which may facilitate Grech's inroads among catego- ries like lowly-paid professionals, which fell out with Gonzi admin- istrations but are increasingly dis- satisfied by Labour's antics. What we might be looking at is the beginning of a cyclical move- ment, often reflected in 10-year electoral cycles, which sees gov- ernments experiencing loss of trust after a decade in power. But Labour can survive, not just thanks to the scale of its advantage, but also to its ability to reinvent it- self; even if Abela finds it increas- ingly harder to keep the pieces together. But the steps being taken by the PN leader may be coming two years too late. With an election looming, Grech will be under increased pressure to step up his act to galvanise the movement needed to sustain an electoral campaign. gaining ground by saying little