Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1334038
8 OPINION 28.01.2021 A local newspaper reports that an index created by the Uni- versity of Oxford, shows Malta as one of the least strict coun- tries in the European Union in terms of measures imposed to contain the spread of COVID. is index considers restric- tions such as curfews and school closures in more than 180 countries. It also evalu- ates travel restrictions, fiscal measures and vaccination pro- grammes. Malta was given a mark of 52.78 which compares to Cyprus registered a score of 84.26 and Greece and Italy scored 80.56 and 78.7, respec- tively. Germany and Ireland have a high score of 85.19. It comes as no surprise that given this relatively lax ap- proach towards prevention, we note how, MAM is calling for a weekend curfew and stronger enforcement as they sound the alarm over the steep flow of COVID-19 patients to Ma- ter Dei hospital. ey predict that at the recent high rate of daily infections, hospital beds equipped with ventilators will soon be fully occupied. e Medical Association of Malta (MAM) said it was "se- riously preoccupied" with the "persistently high number" of daily coronavirus cases, av- eraging more than 150 a day. Malta is no exception with its open airports and seaports even though precautionary measures are taken not to al- low passengers from certain destinations. Be it as it may, the association of doctors rec- ommended introducing a 9pm curfew from Friday to Sunday for at least two weeks, and scaling up enforcement on non-compliant establishments in particular at hotspots such as Paceville and BuÄĦibba. is curfew should also be enforced on the two days fol- lowing carnival Sunday. Hot on the heels of this suggestion from MAM, came the nega- tive attitude taken by MHRA (which is the lobby associa- tion protecting the rights of most hotels and some restau- rants). It disagrees saying that it believes that curfews will push activities underground. As an alternative, it called on the government to ensure that those responsible for en- forcement were adequately equipped to be more effective in enforcing the rules that are already in place, not only with restaurants but also private gatherings. e resistance against impo- sition of curfews is a common factor in other EU states. In fact, this week, heavy clashes broke out in the Netherlands as anti-curfew demonstrators protested against coronavirus restrictions. e clashes came on the first day of a new 9pm to 4.30am curfew, the country's first since World War II. In the meantime, other countries imposed new border controls under pressure to slow the spread of new variants. In essence, France intro- duced a requirement for in- coming travellers from EU countries to possess a recent negative coronavirus test. A more drastic measure is that taken by Israel as it announced to even "close" its skies to al- most all aircraft. But, one may ask, with the availability of at least three approved vaccines in EU, why is there growing fear that the corona virus re- maining dominant. Scientists tell us new variants are much stronger and spread much faster, with the consequence that it has altered the health risk assessments of both in- dividuals and governments. One may ask is Malta fully aware of the growing menace of this mutation? e party faithful are very careful not to rock the boat and agree with the health ad- ministration attitude against lockdowns/curfews. Perhaps, they are ready to take more risks and give the factors of trade some slack to keep the cash flow flowing. ey advise the govern- ment to sail close to the wind and not impose lockdowns or curfews so as to protect the fragile balance of many workers which are surviving (till March) on a government sponsored furlough scheme. By September, providence may help us acquire a herd immunity if 70% of the popu- lation takes the jab. But this does not take into account new strains which are highly pervasive. For example, there have been reports of large animal outbreaks in mink farms in several countries. It has been observed that these mink var- iants are able to transmit back into humans through close contact with the mink. Over the Christmas holidays, more infections placed Europe in a difficult position experi- encing further disruptions to the movement of people and goods and accelerating the possibility the economy may fall into a double-dip reces- sion. Medical journals warn us that as viruses replicate, they change, or mutate. Some mutations give these viral var- iants an edge, such as being better able to latch on to and infect human cells. is has already manifested itself in the UK, and is now showing up in states across the U.S. When a virus replicates or makes copies of itself, it sometimes changes a little bit. e more viruses circulate, the more they may change. ese changes can occasionally re- sult in a virus variant that is better adapted to its environ- ment compared to the original virus. is process of chang- ing and selection of successful variants is called "virus evolu- tion". For the non-technically minded, one may add that in practice mutations can lead to changes in a virus's charac- teristics, for example, it may spread more easily or increase its severity. is could in part be explained by the virus's in- ternal mechanism which can correct "mistakes" when it makes copies of itself. Many hours of dedication and clos- er study can eventually help scientists to understand how this works. Stronger variants mean they are better armed at evading the body's im- mune system (eg variants that emerged recently in South Af- rica and Brazil). Quoting, Pat- rick Vallance, the UK's Chief Scientific Adviser, he said the new variant could be around 30 percent more deadly, al- though he stressed that only sparse data was available. is means the more vulner- able will face a relative high increase in risk. In its origi- nal version that surfaced ear- ly last year in China, this had established the initial pattern. Since then, last spring a mu- tation known as D614G made it more likely for the spike protein to have a more open shape. Another fast-spreading vari- ant, is labelled as B.1.1.7, which was identified last month in the UK. e local authorities have confirmed that in Malta traces were found of this killer virus (probably from passen- gers returning from Britain). Now there's preliminary evi- dence suggesting that this var- iant may be associated with a higher degree of mortality. In South Africa, meanwhile, doctors and researchers are battling a surge of Covid 19 with a spiky variant, known as B.1.351. In conclusion, the corona virus has taken a tight- er grip on the world's popula- tion and millions of infected cases are a sad reminder that it may be early days for Malta to sound jubilant in the hope that come next September, we can throw caution to the wind and start enjoying normality at a pompous celebration of Tal Victoria feast in Naxxar. Can COVID-19 mutate into a more lethal variant? George Mangion George Mangion is a senior partner of an audit and consultancy firm, and has over 25 years experience in accounting, taxation, financial and consultancy services. His efforts have seen PKF being instrumental in establishing many companies in Malta and ensured PKF become one of the foremost professional financial service providers on the Island