Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1337056
13 MALTATODAY SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 FEBRUARY 2021 KURT SANSONE THE gap between the two major parties stands at eight points as both lose some ground over last month, the MaltaToday survey released to- day shows. Support for the Labour Party stands at 41%, a decline of 1.1 points, while that for the Nationalist Party runs at 33%, a decrease of 0.6 points. Taking into account the actual per- formance of the political parties in the last general election as a starting point and using the survey results on how people voted back then and how they will vote now, shows the PL ahead with just under 24,000 votes. In the 2017 general election, the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes. This assumes that those who are unsure now, will vote according to their previous election choice. The PL retains 78.5% of those who voted for it in the last general elec- tion, while the PN retains 71.5%. However, both parties have around 9% of their 2017 voter base, who say they will not vote – this translates in- to 16,000 votes for the PL and 13,000 votes for the PN. The PN's growth, however, contin- ues to be hampered by a cohort of voters (15.2%) who supported it in 2017 but remain unsure of how they will vote if a general election is held tomorrow. Only 4.9% of Labour vot- ers in 2017 are unsure. Unsure voters are the most likely to be convinced to shift their vote, a situation that puts the PL in a better position than its rival. The survey found that 4% of PL voters in 2017 will now vote PN, while 3.1% of Nationalist voters will shift to Labour. The survey results show that the PL has maintained a downward trend line since November, while the PN's fortunes remain inconsistent, unlike the performance of its leader Ber- nard Grech. Support for ADPD remains inef- fectual with the party registering 0.6%, a decline of 0.4 points over last month. The PL leads the PN in all age groups apart from the elderly where it trails by almost six points. Among those aged between 16 and 35, the PL enjoys an advantage of 10 points over its rival. The PL also trumps the PN among men and women. On a regional basis, the PN beats Labour in the Northern Harbour and edges ahead in the Western region. The PL wins in all other re- gions, including Gozo, albeit with a marginal advantage. Methodology The survey was carried out be- tween Monday 1 February 2021 and Friday 5 February 2021. 649 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demo- graphic. The estimated margin of er- ror is 4.9% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demo- graphic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 41.0% 32.9% 10.6% 12.2% 78.5% 9.2% 71.5% 15.2% 9.4% 14.5% 10.8% 21.3% 43.0% 40.5% 33.2% 9.7% 14.4% 41.6% 32.6% 11.7% 9.7% 38.1% 28.0% 10.9% 19.8% 39.5% 25.4% 20.0% 15.0% 47.3% 30.3% 9.1% 11.1% 40.2% 46.0% 54.4% 31.8% 7.2% 48.3% 28.1% 9.2% 10.4% 45.3% 30.1% 7.5% 15.3% 22.1% 42.0% 16.1% 16.7% 34.7% 33.2% 17.7% 6.5% 44.2% 32.6% 12.2% 7.5% 30.3% 46.1% 8.5% 12.6% 47.3% 25.8% 11.9% 10.7% 64.9% 17.5% 11.9% 29.0% 31.7% 13.7% 20.8% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 07-May-… 21-May-… 1-June-17 19-Nov-17 4-Mar-18 3-June-18 2-Sept-18 11-Nov-18 03-Feb-19 07-Apr-19 3-Nov-19 15-Mar-20 24-May-… 19-Jul-20 11-Oct-20 6-Dec-20 7-Feb-21 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls Inconsistent PN loses ground as Labour maintains downward trend Taking into account the actual performance in the last general election as a starting point, the PL would be ahead with just under 24,000 votes. In the 2017 general election, the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes