BusinessToday Previous Editions

The EU economy will reach the pre-crisis level of output earlier than originally anticipated by all the doomsayers and V-shape recovery is the most likely outcome OPINION 18.2.2021 Kevin-James Fenech Kevin is the founder and owner of JOB Search - jobsearch.mt and FENCI Consulting fenci.eu. He is a management consultant and business advisor by profession, focusing on strategy, human resources and recruitment. He has a passion for anything related to business and has written about the topic for over 10 years in most major newspapers or journals THE Prime Minister recently spoke of hope and encouraged people to 'dream big' as we navigate ourselves out of this pandemic and focus on the inevitable recovery. At the same time, the Chief Econo- mist at the Bank of England, Andy Hal- dane, stated that: "e rapid rollout of the vaccination programme across the UK means a decisive corner has been turned in the battle against Covid and a decisive corner is about to be turned for the economy too, with enormous amounts of pent-up financial energy waiting to be released, like a coiled spring." He estimates that households have accumulated £125bn ($175bn) in sav- ings during the pandemic and this "nest-egg" could reach £250bn by June at the current rate. I think we have a lot to be hopeful about and restoring confidence, is now the key. I say this because science has won the COVID-19 battle and now we just need the vaccine roll out to take its course. In fact, research by Clalit on 1.2 mil- lion Israelis, clearly reveals that the Pfizer vaccine has resulted in a 94% drop in symptomatic cases and a 92% drop in serious cases. Similar results within a range apply to the main vac- cines as well. So with Malta speedily inoculating the population at an ever increasing rate, I see no reason why post-Easter we can't free ourselves of those suffo- cating face masks and grin with relief in anticipation of summer. I also think that tourists will flock back to Malta this summer and the long-awaited feel good factor, not to mention the injec- tion of tourist spending in the local economy, will kick in vigorously. Bill Gates stated a few days ago that solving COVID is 'easy' compared with climate change. Naturally, a statement like that made the international head- lines but I dare say that I agree with him and just wish that the majority of the population would be equally as positive and hopeful. e worst is over and the vaccine is the big game-chang- er since the risk of COVID-19 goes down with every week that we inocu- late more people. What a lot of people seem to be ig- noring or forgetting is that we don't have to achieve 'herd immunity' for the recovery to start, since once you've inoculated the vulnerable and elderly, public health restrictions can start to be lifted since they were there mainly to protect them, meaning restaurants increasing their capacity, bars reopen- ing and tourists allowed back to our islands. It also means we can return in- dividual liberties and freedoms to our citizens who have throughout this pan- demic been asked to surrender far too much all in the name of 'public health'. We can then watch the 'coiled spring' unleash the economic recovery we so desperately crave for. Forecasts are in fact encouraging, with GDP with- in the EU set to grow by 3.7% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022. Put another way, the EU economy will reach the pre-crisis level of output earlier than originally anticipated by all the doomsayers and V-shape recovery is the most likely outcome. But it all starts with hope! So dream big, we must otherwise everyone stays on the wayside waiting for the next person to courageously venture out but recoveries don't work like that. We must all believe that the future will be brighter and take decisions today to make that future happen. is means business people must be convinced that Health Minister Chris Fearne will not want to retain control and public health restrictions, since otherwise investments will not be made, recruit- ment will not be re-started and the economy as a whole will remain frozen. Hope beats fear and recovery de- pends on confidence. e recovery can only take place if we genuinely want to free our society from all the COV- ID restrictions as the vaccine roll out grows in momentum to protect the vulnerable and the elderly, allowing the rest of society to resume normality. Hope and a 'coiled spring' that is al- lowed to burst out and unleash all that pent up demand and desire, is what I want for my country and it all starts with decisions taken now and senti- ments expressed today. Hope and a coiled spring Rachel Grech, a nurse at Mater Dei Hospital's Infectious Disease Unit, was the first person in Malta to get the COVID-19 vaccine

• Cover