Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1347847
MALTATODAY SURVEY 9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 MARCH 2021 KURT SANSONE SUPPORT for the Labour Party stands at 39.2%, its worst result since the last general election, the March MaltaTo- day survey shows. The PL loses almost two points since last month's survey as the downward trend that started in December contin- ues to hound the governing party. Support for the Nationalist Party now stands at 32.6%, a marginal decrease of 0.4 points, leaving it in a static position despite the PL's slide. ADPD registers 1.7%, an increase of one percentage point over last month's survey. Taking into account the actual performance of the political parties in the last general elec- tion as a starting point and using the survey results on how people voted back then and how they will vote now, shows the PL ahead with just under 23,000 votes. In the 2017 gen- eral election, the PL surpassed the PN by 35,280 votes. This assumes that those who are un- sure now, will vote according to their previous election choice and new vot- ers since 2017 would be split according evenly. The latest results show that the PL is losing support but this has not trans- lated into gains for the PN. This could be an indication of growing dissatisfac- tion with government's performance but voters do not yet see the PN as an alternative. The gap between the parties now stand at 6.6 points, the closest it has ever been. The survey was carried out between Monday 1 March and Friday 5 March at a time when coronavirus infection hit record numbers, forcing the gov- ernment to take more restrictive meas- ures to curb the spread. The findings show the PL retaining 71.7% of its 2017 general election vote, while the PN retains 72.8% of those who voted for it. Looking at the shifts between parties, 5.1% of those who voted PL in 2017 now say they will vote for the PN, and 4.3% of those who voted Nationalist will now cast their ballot for the PL. The PL has a stronger cohort of voters than the PN, who now say they will not vote. 12.7% of those who voted Labour in the last election say they will stay away from the ballot box, while 10.2% of Nationalist voters will not vote. The PL beats the PN among men and women, and across all age groups. Among those aged between 16 and 35, the PL scores 32.7% against the PN's 28.2%. The gap widens further among those aged between 36 and 65. In contrast with the trust barometer, the PL beats the PN among those aged 65 and over. The PL enjoys the support of 45.9% among pen- sioners as opposed to the PN's 40.4%. This reversal of fortunes could be a reflection on the ability of Ber- nard Grech to com- municate better than Robert Abela with this section of voters, who, however, may still be unwilling to shift their party al- legiance. On a geographical basis, the PL trumps the PN in Gozo, the South-East- ern, Southern Harbour and Western regions. The PN emerges ahead in the Northern and Northern Harbour re- gions. The PL's best result is in Gozo with 52.3% and its worst is in the Northern region where it slumps to 18.4%. The PN's best result is in the Northern Har- bour with 42.2% and its worst perfor- mance is in Gozo where it scores 22.3%. All results of these subgroups have to be interpreted with caution since mar- gins of error are much higher. PL posts worst result but PN fails to capitalise S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 48.0% 28.9% 16.8% 6.3% 51.3% 30.1% 11.7% 7.0% 42.5% 34.7% 14.4% 8.4% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 39.2% 32.6% 11.6% 13.3% 71.7% 9.2% 12.7% 72.8% 9.8% 10.2% 13.9% 15.4% 30.1% 31.8% 38.9% 31.3% 11.9% 14.8% 39.6% 34.2% 11.3% 11.4% 32.7% 28.2% 16.8% 15.4% 38.5% 29.2% 11.8% 16.5% 38.5% 31.6% 15.0% 14.2% 45.9% 40.4% 7.5% 51.7% 40.3% 6.8% 39.7% 35.5% 8.9% 12.4% 40.0% 23.3% 20.5% 15.0% 31.7% 29.4% 16.0% 17.0% 52.3% 22.3% 20.8% 18.4% 39.6% 23.0% 15.2% 32.8% 42.2% 7.8% 15.4% 46.0% 28.3% 10.1% 10.3% 52.2% 25.4% 12.4% 7.1% 41.1% 26.0% 14.7% 14.8% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jun-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Nov-16 30-Apr-17 14-May-17 28-May-17 10-Oct-17 4-Feb-18 6-May-18 5-Aug-18 7-Oct-18 23-Dec-18 02-Mar-19 5-May-19 2-Feb-20 12-Apr-20 21-Jun-20 6-Sep-20 9-Nov-20 9-Jan-21 7-Mar-21 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls Taking into account the last general election, means the PL is still ahead with just under 23,000 votes The latest results show that the PL is losing support but this has not translated into gains for the PN