Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1350550
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 14 MARCH 2021 NEWS this particular survey, Bernard Grech is even less popular than his party among 2017 PL voters (only 4.4% of PL voters in 2017 trust Grech more than Abela. On the other hand, 4.6% of PN voters in 2017 trust Abela). In a presidential style election, the shift between parties would practically cancel each other out. One important consideration is whether Abela will increase his appeal among PN voters, by taking decisive action on cor- ruption cases involving his pre- decessor's administration and whether these will come at a cost among more traditional cohorts of Labour supporters. The PN fails to make significant inroads among non-uni- versity educated voters, and in Gozo, which La- bour won in 2013 and 2017 Under Grech the PN has recov- ered its support in the northern and north harbour re- gions, which include districts like the tenth, ninth and twelfth dis- tricts where the p a r - ty has been historically dom- inant. Compared to last Oc- tober, the first MaltaToday survey after Grech was elected leader, the party has gained 8 points in the northern harbour districts which includes ma- jor urban centres like Sliema, Qormi and Birkirkara. The bad news is that despite the PN's focus on Gozo in the past months, Labour has con- solidated its supremacy there. Compared to October, support for the PN in Gozo has dropped by 10 points. This may be an indication that Abela's deci- sion to appoint three minis- ters in his Cabinet hailing from Gozo has paid off. The party also failed to make any inroads in the western re- gion, which includes a diver- sity of localities ranging from the more rural Siggiewi and Haz-Zebbug to the more af- fluent and urbanised Lija and Attard. But in a sign that greater trust in Bernard Grech has still not resulted in gains for the PN, Grech is 9 points more popular than his party in the western region and 6 points more pop- ular than his party. The latter result suggests that the PN may still need a strong candidature in the sister island which can garner the goodwill reaped by Grech. Despite still lagging behind Labour, the party has made significant gains in the south- east district, which includes Grech's hometown Birzebbu- gia, where the party grew by 14 points since last October. This suggests that contrary to the perception fuelled by Labour that Grech represents the elit- ist faction in his party, he has made notable inroads in the southeast; but less so in the south harbour region which includes Cottonera. This is al- so reflected in gains for the party among the secondary educated (+11 points). In fact, the bad news for Labour is that in contrast to Simon Busuttil, Grech's appeal is not restrict- ed to the university-educated. Like Eddie Fenech Adami and Lawrence Gonzi he seems able to sway a segment of work- ing-class voters. Moreover, Grech is signifi- cantly more popular than his party among secondary-ed- ucated voters (4 points); yet slightly less popular than his party among the tertiary-edu- cated. In contrast to its gains among secondary-educated voters since October, the PN lost 7 points among the universi- ty-educated. Upon Grech's election in October, support for the PN in this category peaked, registering a relative majority in a category which had fallen out of love with his predecessor Adrian Delia. But five months on, Labour has won back a narrow lead in this category amidst an increase in undecided voters, non-voters and third-party voters. This may indicate that this his- torically PN-leaning catego- ry, which had largely rejected Adrian Delia, may have not entirely warmed up to Grech. This may also reflect the par- ty's balancing acts on hunting and construction which may have alienated this segment. The party also failed to make any inroads among respond- ents who continued their post-secondary studies but did not attend university where La- bour retains its strong majori- ty. This is one particular cate- gory which historically leaned towards the PN but which shifted to Labour after the 2008 election. In this par- ticular category the party is now even less popular than it was last year. Grech's prudence liked by over-65s but he suf- fered in youth vote Despite a 10-point increase since Grech became leader, the PN still faces an up- hill struggle in the 16- 35 bracket where Abela is decisively more popular than Grech. This may be offset- ting gains among older voters where Grech seems to strike a chord. While 28% of young voters aged 16-35 are intent on voting PN, only 25% trust Grech more than Abela. On the other hand, while only 33% say they will vote Labour, 36% prefer Ab- ela to Grech. This means that while the gap between the par- ties in this bracket amounts to just 5 points, the gap between leaders increases to 11 points, in an indication that the PN may have less room for growth in coming months. In contrast while Grech leads Abela by 3 points among over 65s, the PN still lags 6 points behind Labour. This suggests that the PN still has room to grow in this category. Grech's popularity among over-65s may contrast his un- popularity among the youngest age bracket, but reflects the generational divide between the more risk-averse elderly and carefree younger gener- ations, frustrated by COV- ID restrictions. The events in the past days which have seen Abela sobering up in front of a surge in COVID numbers, may well change these dynam- ics and vindicate Grech's more prudent approach. A spike in votes for ADPD penal- ised the PN more than the PL After a long period of decline, the survey shows the ADPD party recovering some support reaching the 1.7-point mark which is close to AD's best ever general election result in 2013. Significantly support for the greens increases to 4.6% among the 16-35 bracket and to 5% among the tertiary-educated. The survey clearly shows that the increase in support for AD- PD penalises the PN more than the PL. This also raises the question on why a political formation which is clearly to the left of Abela's Labour, fails to capital- ise on Labour's losses and evi- dent signs of disillusion among the party's more socialist ele- ments. While the PN loses 1.5% of its 2017 voters to the third party, the PL loses none of its voters to the centre-left outfit. Sup- port for ADPD is also strongest in PN-leaning regions, particu- larly in the north where 4% will vote for the new party. But the greatest surprise is that ADPD, the only party opposed to the Gozo tunnel, registers its sec- ond-best result in Gozo where 2.7% would vote for it. This poses another problem for the PN which struggles in its bal- ancing act on an issue on which its voters are split.